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HOW SHOULD EUROPE PERCEIVE AZERBAIJAN?
by Zaur Shiriyev
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-245368-how-should-europe-perceive-azerbaijan-by-zaur-shiriyev*.html
May 27 2011
Turkey
In his influential book "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st
Century," George Friedman uses a historical-comparative method of
examining the world system to challenge people living in this period
by appropriating the term "imagine."
For example, the Caucasus is in a capricious setting where clashes
between global players have altered somewhat the conditions and
players that have not changed much in the course of a century.
However, if we were to imagine ourselves at the beginning of the 20th
century, it would be impossible to forecast the rising influence of
Azerbaijan in Europe, while the founding fathers of the Azerbaijani
Democratic Republic kept this dream eternal. Nevertheless, there are
some things that could have been -- and, in fact, were -- forecasted.
In the early 20th century, Kurban Said brilliantly described the
quest for being a part of Europe, which had always been and still is
deeply ingrained in the region, in his quintessential novel about the
Caucasus, "Ali and Nino," as follows: "Some scholars look on the area
south of the Caucasian mountains as belonging to Asia, while others, in
view of Transcaucasia's cultural evolution, believe that this country
should be considered part of Europe. It can therefore be said, my
children, that it is partly your responsibility as to whether our town
[ Baku ] should belong to progressive Europe or to reactionary Asia."
Now, imagine that you were alive in 1918-1920, at the end of World War
I; the Caucasus ' new independent states are trying to preserve their
independence, which they gained in 28 May1918. The first Azerbaijan
Democratic Republic at the same time was the first legal and secular
state in the Turkic-Muslim world. The new republic gave equal rights
to all citizens, minorities, men and women and allowed Azerbaijani
women to vote, when women in the United States were still banned from
participating in elections
At this time, the founding fathers had done much to introduce the
young republic to the international arena in order to prevent the
intervention of foreign countries. Specifically, Parliament Chairman
A.M. Topchubashov was sent to the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 and
attained the de-facto recognition of the republic by a number of big
countries. After meeting Topchubashov at the Paris Peace Conference,
President Woodrow Wilson noted: "I met with a very dignified and
interesting group of gentlemen from Azerbaijan, men who spoke the
same language I did about ideas and concepts of liberty, rights and
justice." Unfortunately, independence was short-lived, and ended
in 1920.
Now, imagine the end of 1991, when the Soviet Union had completely
collapsed and Azerbaijan restored its independence. The Caucasus saw
an explosion of extreme forms of war similar to patterns elsewhere in
the former Soviet Union. The most bloody conflict was between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, whose military phase of the confrontation ended in
May of 1994 with the signing of a cease-fire agreement, following
the occupation of just under 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory and
the displacement of civilians on an unprecedented scale by Armenian
occupation forces, which resulted in large numbers of refugees and
internally displaced people (IDPs). After these developments under the
leadership of Heydar Aliyev, pragmatism became a trademark policy for
Baku, which was extraordinarily important in realizing energy projects
and providing benefits to an economically stable country. Finally,
Western countries engaged the Caspian Basin, which was unimaginable
in the early 20th century.
Imagine now the year 2001, during the 10th year of independence
when Azerbaijan joined the Council of Europe; our flag flew with the
continent's preeminent organization, and at the time of its admission,
the move was hailed as a sign that Azerbaijan had graduated from
the post-Soviet doldrums and taken a critical step closer to the
league of Western states. Even afterwards, Azerbaijan described its
dream to be part of Europe in a National Security Doctrine and with
bilateral agreements.
Then look at today in the year 2011, the 20th year of restoring the
independence of the South Caucasus countries. In the South Caucasus,
the status quo over the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
is working against peace in the region, making the conflict intractable
and increasing the chances of war. For this reason, the name Caucasus
is sometimes used as a synonym for war in the international arena:
"This is the Caucasus -- there is eternal war."
Therefore, the region has become synonymous with conflict, volatility
and threat.
In this context, the Azerbaijani entrants were successful and won the
Eurovision Song Contest, which parallels the country's economic success
stories under the Ilham Aliyev presidency. The founding fathers of the
first Azerbaijani republic might have been upset to see the rising
influence of Azerbaijan in Europe and one year later the Europeans
coming to Azerbaijan to "recognize" this country, which they forced
into such a troubled period with little financial recourse to de-jure
recognize Azerbaijan's independence in Europe.
Right now, after a confident victory in Eurovision, Azerbaijan's
success in the Western capitals can, and should be, used to further
raise the Caucasus' international profile and to add new positive
dimensions to the region's equilibrium. But, ordinary Europeans still
ask the same question: Where is Azerbaijan? There are several ways to
answer this question: Azerbaijan is a country in which 20 percent of
its territories are still under occupation by Armenia, or, on the eve
of the 20th anniversary of the independence of the South Caucasian
states, they can solve all territorial problems and the region will
be known as a peaceful one in Europe. Much is still dependent on the
conditionality of a more pragmatic and regional approach to be adopted
in Yerevan and how the European Union will engage with the region's
problems. It would be interesting to "imagine" peace and prosperity
in the South Caucasus.
*Zaur Shiriyev is a foreign policy analyst at the Center for Strategic
Studies in Baku, Azerbaijan.
by Zaur Shiriyev
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-245368-how-should-europe-perceive-azerbaijan-by-zaur-shiriyev*.html
May 27 2011
Turkey
In his influential book "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st
Century," George Friedman uses a historical-comparative method of
examining the world system to challenge people living in this period
by appropriating the term "imagine."
For example, the Caucasus is in a capricious setting where clashes
between global players have altered somewhat the conditions and
players that have not changed much in the course of a century.
However, if we were to imagine ourselves at the beginning of the 20th
century, it would be impossible to forecast the rising influence of
Azerbaijan in Europe, while the founding fathers of the Azerbaijani
Democratic Republic kept this dream eternal. Nevertheless, there are
some things that could have been -- and, in fact, were -- forecasted.
In the early 20th century, Kurban Said brilliantly described the
quest for being a part of Europe, which had always been and still is
deeply ingrained in the region, in his quintessential novel about the
Caucasus, "Ali and Nino," as follows: "Some scholars look on the area
south of the Caucasian mountains as belonging to Asia, while others, in
view of Transcaucasia's cultural evolution, believe that this country
should be considered part of Europe. It can therefore be said, my
children, that it is partly your responsibility as to whether our town
[ Baku ] should belong to progressive Europe or to reactionary Asia."
Now, imagine that you were alive in 1918-1920, at the end of World War
I; the Caucasus ' new independent states are trying to preserve their
independence, which they gained in 28 May1918. The first Azerbaijan
Democratic Republic at the same time was the first legal and secular
state in the Turkic-Muslim world. The new republic gave equal rights
to all citizens, minorities, men and women and allowed Azerbaijani
women to vote, when women in the United States were still banned from
participating in elections
At this time, the founding fathers had done much to introduce the
young republic to the international arena in order to prevent the
intervention of foreign countries. Specifically, Parliament Chairman
A.M. Topchubashov was sent to the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 and
attained the de-facto recognition of the republic by a number of big
countries. After meeting Topchubashov at the Paris Peace Conference,
President Woodrow Wilson noted: "I met with a very dignified and
interesting group of gentlemen from Azerbaijan, men who spoke the
same language I did about ideas and concepts of liberty, rights and
justice." Unfortunately, independence was short-lived, and ended
in 1920.
Now, imagine the end of 1991, when the Soviet Union had completely
collapsed and Azerbaijan restored its independence. The Caucasus saw
an explosion of extreme forms of war similar to patterns elsewhere in
the former Soviet Union. The most bloody conflict was between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, whose military phase of the confrontation ended in
May of 1994 with the signing of a cease-fire agreement, following
the occupation of just under 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory and
the displacement of civilians on an unprecedented scale by Armenian
occupation forces, which resulted in large numbers of refugees and
internally displaced people (IDPs). After these developments under the
leadership of Heydar Aliyev, pragmatism became a trademark policy for
Baku, which was extraordinarily important in realizing energy projects
and providing benefits to an economically stable country. Finally,
Western countries engaged the Caspian Basin, which was unimaginable
in the early 20th century.
Imagine now the year 2001, during the 10th year of independence
when Azerbaijan joined the Council of Europe; our flag flew with the
continent's preeminent organization, and at the time of its admission,
the move was hailed as a sign that Azerbaijan had graduated from
the post-Soviet doldrums and taken a critical step closer to the
league of Western states. Even afterwards, Azerbaijan described its
dream to be part of Europe in a National Security Doctrine and with
bilateral agreements.
Then look at today in the year 2011, the 20th year of restoring the
independence of the South Caucasus countries. In the South Caucasus,
the status quo over the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
is working against peace in the region, making the conflict intractable
and increasing the chances of war. For this reason, the name Caucasus
is sometimes used as a synonym for war in the international arena:
"This is the Caucasus -- there is eternal war."
Therefore, the region has become synonymous with conflict, volatility
and threat.
In this context, the Azerbaijani entrants were successful and won the
Eurovision Song Contest, which parallels the country's economic success
stories under the Ilham Aliyev presidency. The founding fathers of the
first Azerbaijani republic might have been upset to see the rising
influence of Azerbaijan in Europe and one year later the Europeans
coming to Azerbaijan to "recognize" this country, which they forced
into such a troubled period with little financial recourse to de-jure
recognize Azerbaijan's independence in Europe.
Right now, after a confident victory in Eurovision, Azerbaijan's
success in the Western capitals can, and should be, used to further
raise the Caucasus' international profile and to add new positive
dimensions to the region's equilibrium. But, ordinary Europeans still
ask the same question: Where is Azerbaijan? There are several ways to
answer this question: Azerbaijan is a country in which 20 percent of
its territories are still under occupation by Armenia, or, on the eve
of the 20th anniversary of the independence of the South Caucasian
states, they can solve all territorial problems and the region will
be known as a peaceful one in Europe. Much is still dependent on the
conditionality of a more pragmatic and regional approach to be adopted
in Yerevan and how the European Union will engage with the region's
problems. It would be interesting to "imagine" peace and prosperity
in the South Caucasus.
*Zaur Shiriyev is a foreign policy analyst at the Center for Strategic
Studies in Baku, Azerbaijan.