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Global Insight
May 25, 2011
Armenian Economic Growth Picks Up, Exports Remain Strong in April
BYLINE: Venla Sipila
According to the index of economic activity, estimating economic
growth with the help of supply-side data, and published by the
Armenian National Statistical Service, the economy expanded by 7.7%
year-on-year (y/y) in April, ARKA News reports. This result is a
marked improvement compared with the March gain of just 0.3% y/y.
Further, it was reported that industrial output in April surged by 11%
y/y, whereas construction activity soared by nearly 17%y/y, and
agricultural production only edged up by 0.6% y/y. Compared with
March, the economic activity index increased by 4% in April, mainly
boosted by soaring agricultural output. In addition, ARKA News also
reports on the latest foreign trade results published by the National
Statistical Service. Exports increased by 21% y/y, while imports rose
by 16.6% y/y, producing a trade deficit of about USD228 million.
Monthly comparison shows export growth of 13.5% whereas imports
remained virtually stable from March.
Significance:Following fairly weak performance in the first quarter,
the Armenian economy is again gathering some strengthening recovery
momentum. Expecting support from the industrial and agricultural
sectors, we have been projecting some renewed strength. The relatively
strong industrial performance likely draws from mining sector
performance, which also is a key factor in boosting exports. Together
with the still muted domestic demand, which has suppressed growth of
imports, the persistently vigorous export growth has aided in guiding
the trade deficit to a moderating path. While for the most part the
result of support from global commodity prices to the mining sector,
this development is very welcome, given that Armenia's current-account
deficit has recently served a as a key cause of some concern. However,
external finances still pose a source of external vulnerability,
especially given Armenia's dependence on imports, including that of
food.
May 25, 2011
Armenian Economic Growth Picks Up, Exports Remain Strong in April
BYLINE: Venla Sipila
According to the index of economic activity, estimating economic
growth with the help of supply-side data, and published by the
Armenian National Statistical Service, the economy expanded by 7.7%
year-on-year (y/y) in April, ARKA News reports. This result is a
marked improvement compared with the March gain of just 0.3% y/y.
Further, it was reported that industrial output in April surged by 11%
y/y, whereas construction activity soared by nearly 17%y/y, and
agricultural production only edged up by 0.6% y/y. Compared with
March, the economic activity index increased by 4% in April, mainly
boosted by soaring agricultural output. In addition, ARKA News also
reports on the latest foreign trade results published by the National
Statistical Service. Exports increased by 21% y/y, while imports rose
by 16.6% y/y, producing a trade deficit of about USD228 million.
Monthly comparison shows export growth of 13.5% whereas imports
remained virtually stable from March.
Significance:Following fairly weak performance in the first quarter,
the Armenian economy is again gathering some strengthening recovery
momentum. Expecting support from the industrial and agricultural
sectors, we have been projecting some renewed strength. The relatively
strong industrial performance likely draws from mining sector
performance, which also is a key factor in boosting exports. Together
with the still muted domestic demand, which has suppressed growth of
imports, the persistently vigorous export growth has aided in guiding
the trade deficit to a moderating path. While for the most part the
result of support from global commodity prices to the mining sector,
this development is very welcome, given that Armenia's current-account
deficit has recently served a as a key cause of some concern. However,
external finances still pose a source of external vulnerability,
especially given Armenia's dependence on imports, including that of
food.