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YEREVAN MULLS PROS AND CONS OF PUTIN'S EURASIAN UNION VISION
by Gayane Abrahamyan
EurasiaNet.org, NY
Oct 31 2011
It may still be only on the drawing board, but Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin's proposed Eurasian Union, an economic bloc of former
Soviet republics, already is stirring concern in Armenia about the
future of Yerevan's independence from Moscow.
In an October 3 commentary in the daily Izvestia, Putin, who plans to
run for Russia's presidency next year, described the bloc as allowing
its members "a higher degree of integration" on "a new ... political
and economic basis," without a return to the Soviet past.
So far, the Armenian government has not elaborated about its plans
to join the bloc, but conjecture runs strong.
In what has been touted as a first step toward realizing Putin's plan,
on October 18 Armenia and seven other former Soviet republics signed
an agreement to create a free trade zone within the Commonwealth
of Independent States, the club of ex-Soviet republics that could,
conceivably, serve as a launch pad for Putin's new union. Armenia
also appears to have put aside earlier reluctance about another
potential building block for the Eurasian Union, a customs union
between CIS members.
Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian has praised the Eurasian Union, saying
that it shows "perspective" and "goes with the times." President
Serzh Sargsyan himself has not yet released an official comment,
but a televised remark by Union of Armenians of Russia Chairman Ara
Abrahamian, a prominent businessman, that Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan allegedly told him that he approved of the Eurasian Union,
has been interpreted widely to mean that Armenia will sign on with
the plan.
The idea, however, has outraged some Armenian opposition members,
who believe that Russia's only goal is "to increase dependence [among
former Soviet republics], and create multi-[layers of] dependence"
on Moscow.
"The goal is not the creation of a European-Union-like structure with
several equally powerful countries as members, but to simply not allow
CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] countries get too carried
away and deepen their relationships with the West, which might lead
to less dependence," argued Styopa Safarian, head of the opposition
Heritage Party's parliamentary faction.
The nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation, a onetime government
coalition member, echoes that view. Armenia's economy itself will
probably "neither win nor lose" from membership in the Eurasian Union,
but the union could endanger Armenia's "independence" from Moscow,
predicted MP Artsvik Minasian, an economist by background.
Russia currently ranks as Armenia's largest economic partner, with $3
billion worth of investments in the country, according to government
data. Russian firms control 80 percent of Armenia's energy resources,
account for two out of three of its telecommunications companies and
now hold a 30-year management contract for its railway.
Strategic ties play a role, too: Moscow has a 49-year agreement for
the stationing of troops at Gyumri in northern Armenia.
Safarian contends that, by joining the Eurasian Union, Armenia would
just add one more block to that pillar of influence, at the risk of
any EU-friendly economic development track and, possibly, anticipated
western investments. Last year, Armenia and the European Union
started negotiations on an Association Agreement that would provide
the opportunity for a free trade area and a simplified visa regime.
"Of course, the European Union invests only in countries that are
predictable, share the same set of values, and sees a future with
those countries," claimed Safarian. "If we join this [Eurasian] union,
we will once and forever be out of that value field and, consequently,
will also be left out of major investment projects."
The European Union has made no statement about Putin's Eurasian Union,
but has stressed that the CIS free trade zone has no impact on a
member country's ties with the EU.
"[T]here is no problem or incompatibility between negotiating a deep
and comprehensive free trade agreement and being in association with
the European Union on the one side and having free trade agreements
with other countries on the other side," Gunnar Wiegand, who oversees
the South Caucasus for the European Commission's European Neighbourhood
Policy, commented on October 26, reported RFE/RL.
One senior MP from the governing Republican Party of Armenia
dismisses fears that the Eurasian Union could spell an end to
Armenia's economic freedom of maneuver. "This is just a premature
panic. That's all," Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Samvel Nikoyan
commented to EurasiaNet.org.
Another Republican parliamentarian, Shirak Torosian, a member of the
Foreign Affairs Committee, believes, however, that "the Putin-submitted
plan is innocent only at first glance."
"We have to think very carefully not to fall into another -- this
time, final -- trap," Torosian said, in reference to controversial
economic deals, such as the shares-for-debt swap that gave Russia
control over five Armenian state-run companies, including the Hrazdan
thermo-electric power station, as compensation for Soviet-era debt.
Torosian added that his opinion does not reflect the Republican
Party's view.
Some analysts view the Eurasian Union as a more mundane phenomenon,
however. Economist Tatul Manaserian, head of the Alternative economic
research center, notes that the Union would not be "a new thing,"
and could introduce competition to help Armenia "fight against the
import monopoly" which, he argues, poses the greater threat to the
country's economy.
Ultimately, predicted independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian,
the proposed Eurasian Union "will get into a deadlock before it
reaches us." For now, he said, it looks like "nothing more than just
an election campaign promise [by Putin] to rebuild the Soviet Union."
Editor's note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a reporter for ArmeniaNow.com
in Yerevan.
by Gayane Abrahamyan
EurasiaNet.org, NY
Oct 31 2011
It may still be only on the drawing board, but Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin's proposed Eurasian Union, an economic bloc of former
Soviet republics, already is stirring concern in Armenia about the
future of Yerevan's independence from Moscow.
In an October 3 commentary in the daily Izvestia, Putin, who plans to
run for Russia's presidency next year, described the bloc as allowing
its members "a higher degree of integration" on "a new ... political
and economic basis," without a return to the Soviet past.
So far, the Armenian government has not elaborated about its plans
to join the bloc, but conjecture runs strong.
In what has been touted as a first step toward realizing Putin's plan,
on October 18 Armenia and seven other former Soviet republics signed
an agreement to create a free trade zone within the Commonwealth
of Independent States, the club of ex-Soviet republics that could,
conceivably, serve as a launch pad for Putin's new union. Armenia
also appears to have put aside earlier reluctance about another
potential building block for the Eurasian Union, a customs union
between CIS members.
Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian has praised the Eurasian Union, saying
that it shows "perspective" and "goes with the times." President
Serzh Sargsyan himself has not yet released an official comment,
but a televised remark by Union of Armenians of Russia Chairman Ara
Abrahamian, a prominent businessman, that Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan allegedly told him that he approved of the Eurasian Union,
has been interpreted widely to mean that Armenia will sign on with
the plan.
The idea, however, has outraged some Armenian opposition members,
who believe that Russia's only goal is "to increase dependence [among
former Soviet republics], and create multi-[layers of] dependence"
on Moscow.
"The goal is not the creation of a European-Union-like structure with
several equally powerful countries as members, but to simply not allow
CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] countries get too carried
away and deepen their relationships with the West, which might lead
to less dependence," argued Styopa Safarian, head of the opposition
Heritage Party's parliamentary faction.
The nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation, a onetime government
coalition member, echoes that view. Armenia's economy itself will
probably "neither win nor lose" from membership in the Eurasian Union,
but the union could endanger Armenia's "independence" from Moscow,
predicted MP Artsvik Minasian, an economist by background.
Russia currently ranks as Armenia's largest economic partner, with $3
billion worth of investments in the country, according to government
data. Russian firms control 80 percent of Armenia's energy resources,
account for two out of three of its telecommunications companies and
now hold a 30-year management contract for its railway.
Strategic ties play a role, too: Moscow has a 49-year agreement for
the stationing of troops at Gyumri in northern Armenia.
Safarian contends that, by joining the Eurasian Union, Armenia would
just add one more block to that pillar of influence, at the risk of
any EU-friendly economic development track and, possibly, anticipated
western investments. Last year, Armenia and the European Union
started negotiations on an Association Agreement that would provide
the opportunity for a free trade area and a simplified visa regime.
"Of course, the European Union invests only in countries that are
predictable, share the same set of values, and sees a future with
those countries," claimed Safarian. "If we join this [Eurasian] union,
we will once and forever be out of that value field and, consequently,
will also be left out of major investment projects."
The European Union has made no statement about Putin's Eurasian Union,
but has stressed that the CIS free trade zone has no impact on a
member country's ties with the EU.
"[T]here is no problem or incompatibility between negotiating a deep
and comprehensive free trade agreement and being in association with
the European Union on the one side and having free trade agreements
with other countries on the other side," Gunnar Wiegand, who oversees
the South Caucasus for the European Commission's European Neighbourhood
Policy, commented on October 26, reported RFE/RL.
One senior MP from the governing Republican Party of Armenia
dismisses fears that the Eurasian Union could spell an end to
Armenia's economic freedom of maneuver. "This is just a premature
panic. That's all," Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Samvel Nikoyan
commented to EurasiaNet.org.
Another Republican parliamentarian, Shirak Torosian, a member of the
Foreign Affairs Committee, believes, however, that "the Putin-submitted
plan is innocent only at first glance."
"We have to think very carefully not to fall into another -- this
time, final -- trap," Torosian said, in reference to controversial
economic deals, such as the shares-for-debt swap that gave Russia
control over five Armenian state-run companies, including the Hrazdan
thermo-electric power station, as compensation for Soviet-era debt.
Torosian added that his opinion does not reflect the Republican
Party's view.
Some analysts view the Eurasian Union as a more mundane phenomenon,
however. Economist Tatul Manaserian, head of the Alternative economic
research center, notes that the Union would not be "a new thing,"
and could introduce competition to help Armenia "fight against the
import monopoly" which, he argues, poses the greater threat to the
country's economy.
Ultimately, predicted independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian,
the proposed Eurasian Union "will get into a deadlock before it
reaches us." For now, he said, it looks like "nothing more than just
an election campaign promise [by Putin] to rebuild the Soviet Union."
Editor's note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a reporter for ArmeniaNow.com
in Yerevan.