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AZERBAIJANI LOBBY AND MEDVEDEV
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics24014.html
Published: 12:41:00 - 01/11/2011
In talks with Russian experts, attention is drawn to the fact that
in addition to the task of establishing new relations with Turkey the
Azerbaijani lobby has serious importance in relation to the Karabakh
issue in Moscow, which is closely related to many officials and,
above all, with President Dmitry Medvedev. The features of the personal
relationships between Azeri lobbyists and Dmitry Medvedev became known,
who is one way or another connected with the oil and gas projects.
During Medvedev's visit to Baku, no final decisions were made but some
intentions and duties were outlined. V. Putin is no less interested
in oil and gas plans. At the same time, even such a force which is a
complex of oil and gas interests is unable to ignore the interests
of Armenia. Overall, it was necessary to draw the conclusion that
the oil and gas issue is not the field where the Armenian interests
are worth being sacrificed for the sake of someone.
The Russian political analysts integrated with government agencies who
held for many years the view that it is in the interests of Russia to
"freeze" the Karabakh issue now offer the following. In their opinion,
Armenia would categorically reject that plan, and Russia would not
have the political resources to continue insisting on this project. At
the same time, it is not recommended to automatically ask for support
from the U.S. but to build a more principled position with Russia.
We think that this is not just an isolated recommendation of
situational character but a thoroughly worked out and meaningful
technology. It is worth mentioning that significant confusion and lack
of confidence can be observed among Russian analysts and political
planners on the "Karabakh project". The greater part of the analytical
community of Russia thinks this project is completely unrealizable.
According to the assessments of Russian analysts, the current regime
in Russia demanded from special services to run their opinions on the
"Karabakh project" which brought about an inadequate situation. The
leaders of Russian special services did not complicate the situation
and did not give negative assessments. Analysts working in special
services, particularly in the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia,
think the project contains new interesting proposals and stances
and can underlie the establishment of Russian policies in the South
Caucasus. The FIS of Russia recommends to focus on the phase of
agreeing proposals and positions, as well as to ensure consensus in
Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is a hard task.
Currently, the regime of the president of Russia is not trying to
involve representatives of research institutes and centers in the
development of the project. The Russian experts who visited NKR think
that the "Karabakh project" actually is nothing but political adventure
but they do not voice this stance.
Proceeding from the work done, we can draw the conclusion that the
"Karabakh project" has been initiated mainly by the Azerbaijani lobby
in Moscow which has strong ties with Medvedev. We need to note that
the Russian PM Putin and his people from the staff of the President,
as well as the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have not yet expressed
enthusiasm and favorable expectations regarding this project. All
this produces the impression that Medvedev has been offered very
bad and useless projects to solve the Karabakh issue. In addition,
they made the offers in a very unfavorable situation, which brought
about the failure of these attempts.
I am not sure about the combination of Russia's strategic interests
and objectives of interest groups in Moscow but both have their role
in the promotion of "the Karabakh project". The United States, despite
the difficult political situation, does not abandon self-confident
action in the South Caucasus. The U.S. influence could weaken in the
region for ensuring which a lot of political and economic resource
had been used.
Given the highly critical behavior of the authorities and the society
in Nagorno-Karabakh Republic regarding Russia's plans, "signals"
from the U.S. to support the NKR position would be very helpful.
At the same time, some criticism of Russian projects brings enthusiasm
and positive expectations among the Armenian society which is ready
to review its idea of Russia's policy. Armenia has launched a public
and political debate which needs external support because there is an
issue of national security. In reality, the U.S. is not that inclined
to "save" someone, especially to "save" from Russia. On the contrary,
the Americans are eager to kindle problems between most countries
and Russia.
However, the U.S. clearly demonstrates to Russia, as well as to all
the others, the impossibility to sacrifice everything in the name of
oil and gas. These resources have their price, including the political
price. Mistaken is the person who thinks that everything is allowed
for the sake of oil.
From: Baghdasarian
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics24014.html
Published: 12:41:00 - 01/11/2011
In talks with Russian experts, attention is drawn to the fact that
in addition to the task of establishing new relations with Turkey the
Azerbaijani lobby has serious importance in relation to the Karabakh
issue in Moscow, which is closely related to many officials and,
above all, with President Dmitry Medvedev. The features of the personal
relationships between Azeri lobbyists and Dmitry Medvedev became known,
who is one way or another connected with the oil and gas projects.
During Medvedev's visit to Baku, no final decisions were made but some
intentions and duties were outlined. V. Putin is no less interested
in oil and gas plans. At the same time, even such a force which is a
complex of oil and gas interests is unable to ignore the interests
of Armenia. Overall, it was necessary to draw the conclusion that
the oil and gas issue is not the field where the Armenian interests
are worth being sacrificed for the sake of someone.
The Russian political analysts integrated with government agencies who
held for many years the view that it is in the interests of Russia to
"freeze" the Karabakh issue now offer the following. In their opinion,
Armenia would categorically reject that plan, and Russia would not
have the political resources to continue insisting on this project. At
the same time, it is not recommended to automatically ask for support
from the U.S. but to build a more principled position with Russia.
We think that this is not just an isolated recommendation of
situational character but a thoroughly worked out and meaningful
technology. It is worth mentioning that significant confusion and lack
of confidence can be observed among Russian analysts and political
planners on the "Karabakh project". The greater part of the analytical
community of Russia thinks this project is completely unrealizable.
According to the assessments of Russian analysts, the current regime
in Russia demanded from special services to run their opinions on the
"Karabakh project" which brought about an inadequate situation. The
leaders of Russian special services did not complicate the situation
and did not give negative assessments. Analysts working in special
services, particularly in the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia,
think the project contains new interesting proposals and stances
and can underlie the establishment of Russian policies in the South
Caucasus. The FIS of Russia recommends to focus on the phase of
agreeing proposals and positions, as well as to ensure consensus in
Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is a hard task.
Currently, the regime of the president of Russia is not trying to
involve representatives of research institutes and centers in the
development of the project. The Russian experts who visited NKR think
that the "Karabakh project" actually is nothing but political adventure
but they do not voice this stance.
Proceeding from the work done, we can draw the conclusion that the
"Karabakh project" has been initiated mainly by the Azerbaijani lobby
in Moscow which has strong ties with Medvedev. We need to note that
the Russian PM Putin and his people from the staff of the President,
as well as the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have not yet expressed
enthusiasm and favorable expectations regarding this project. All
this produces the impression that Medvedev has been offered very
bad and useless projects to solve the Karabakh issue. In addition,
they made the offers in a very unfavorable situation, which brought
about the failure of these attempts.
I am not sure about the combination of Russia's strategic interests
and objectives of interest groups in Moscow but both have their role
in the promotion of "the Karabakh project". The United States, despite
the difficult political situation, does not abandon self-confident
action in the South Caucasus. The U.S. influence could weaken in the
region for ensuring which a lot of political and economic resource
had been used.
Given the highly critical behavior of the authorities and the society
in Nagorno-Karabakh Republic regarding Russia's plans, "signals"
from the U.S. to support the NKR position would be very helpful.
At the same time, some criticism of Russian projects brings enthusiasm
and positive expectations among the Armenian society which is ready
to review its idea of Russia's policy. Armenia has launched a public
and political debate which needs external support because there is an
issue of national security. In reality, the U.S. is not that inclined
to "save" someone, especially to "save" from Russia. On the contrary,
the Americans are eager to kindle problems between most countries
and Russia.
However, the U.S. clearly demonstrates to Russia, as well as to all
the others, the impossibility to sacrifice everything in the name of
oil and gas. These resources have their price, including the political
price. Mistaken is the person who thinks that everything is allowed
for the sake of oil.
From: Baghdasarian