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FRANCE'S SCRAMBLE TO GRAB A ROLE FOR ITSELF IN ARMENIA
by Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu*
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Nov 2 2011
An early October visit paid to the Armenian capital Yerevan by French
President Nicolas Sarkozy has triggered not only a new predicament in
terms of Turkey's relations with Armenia, but also marked an important
turning point regarding France's regional influence.
In order for Turkey to better understand this current predicament,
it would do well to examine the reciprocal good will visits that have
taken place between France and Armenia in recent months, as well as
the direction taken by French investments in the Caucuses these days.
Sarkozy's two-day visit to Yerevan (not to mention his hours-long stops
in Azerbaijan and Georgia) actually includes messages that relate to
the status of France within the Minsk Group. This attempt to "grab a
role" for France in the region fits in line with efforts that began
first in Africa and have now moved on to the Caucasus.
While statements made in Yerevan by Nicolas Sarkozy regarding 1915 and
Nagorno-Karabakh could be perceived as election-time fodder, they were
also aimed at strengthening the position of French stock in Armenia.
The ongoing reciprocal visits between France and Armenia shed some
light on the most recent heights reached in the attempt to create
stronger economic relations between these two countries.
First of all, a few people from the French parliament visited the
Karabakh leadership, which is not officially recognized by any
international organization or state, last August, calling on this
leadership to create a new legal model for itself. In fact, this visit
was labeled by these people as "the now-traditional French-Karabakh
inter-parliamentary visit." In this visit, which took place two months
in advance of Sarkozy's visit to Yerevan, when he made the statement,
"No one other than the French can understand just what Karabakh
means for Armenia," the French parliamentarians stressed that a
Kosovo model needed to be implemented in Karabakh and that Karabakh
possessed a unique character of its own. This turn of events, which
elicited negative reactions from Azerbaijan, was characterized by
the French Foreign Ministry as connected with "a visit made of the
own free will of the French parliamentarians." Still, this move by
the French remained in people's minds.
A visit paid a few weeks later to Yerevan by French Transportation
Minister Thierry Mariani was based around a variety of different
meetings aimed at developing dual relations. According to news that
emerged shortly in the wake of Mariani's visit, there was now talk
in Armenia of turning over 20 percent of the shares in the Electric
Network of Armenia, nearly 100 percent of which has up until now been
held by Russia, to the French. But concrete results on this front
were to emerge with Sarkozy's visit. It is well known that France
is interested not only in the electrical network and distribution in
Armenia, but also in the rebuilding and caretaking of a nuclear power
plant. Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan, who visited France after
his speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September, spoke
publicly about his pride in the fact that France is the second-largest
country to invest in Armenia. Noting that since the month of July,
French investment in Armenia has reached the level of $750 million,
President Sarksyan praised a French wine factory in Armenia, as well
as investments made by French companies such as Orange, Alcatel and
Pernod Ricard, all of which are active in Armenia. Yerevan Mayor
Karen Karapetian, who was in France for meetings at the same time
that President Sarksyan was there, also stated that the Armenians
were indebted to the French for the good will they have shown on the
genocide issue. During this time period, when reciprocal meetings
were more frequent, the French Embassy in Yerevan in concert with
the Armenian-French Business Club, created by the Armenian Foreign
Ministry, decided to shoulder the mission of helping guide French
investors in Armenia. The efforts made by French investors in the
North-South Highway project are also significant.
A 'turning point' in relations
And thus the most recent visit by Sarkozy to Armenia represents the
latest stage in the preparations that have been under way for a long
time now. The visit dealt with many topics that promise profit in the
long term for both Armenia and France and was -- to use Sarksyan's
description -- a "turning point."
Sarkozy, who rounded out his time in Yerevan by meeting with figures
such as Charles Aznavour and Patrick Devejian, asserted in comparing
the issue of Karabakh to clashes between the French and Germans that
the two countries in question could make advances by learning from
the experiences of Europe. Sarkozy, who used the Armenian word for
"genocide" during a speech given at the official introduction of the
statue of Jules Bastien-Lepage in Yerevan's French Square, was taking
the first step that would trigger a series of reciprocal jests. As
a response to France's friendly enterprises, President Sarksyan
presented many French government ministers and bureaucrats with the
Saint Mesrop Mashtot (founder of the Armenian alphabet) and Honor
medals. As for the French, they awarded President Sarksyan with the
"Legion d'honneur" and Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian
with the "Legion d'honneur Grand Officier."
There is little question that these steps taken are the sort that call
for a close watch to be kept on regional balances from here onwards.
But alongside it now being clear that France does not count Turkey
as being from the region, it is also striking just how hesitant
its stance towards Russia is. Because alongside the moves that seem
to ignore the weighty economic presence of Russia in the Armenian
economy, France, in trying to shoulder a leader role in the Karabakh
issue, is also taking on a topic that directly concerns Russia. And
no matter how much Sarkozy may try to disguise the hesitant nature
of France's approach to Russia -- by doing things like urging the
Georgian leadership to foster better relations with Moscow -- the
truth is that the sort of steps that Turkey can take that will bring
about diplomatic success on the Armenian front are the sort that will
receive support from both Russia and the US. It must not be forgotten
that the greatest success that will come of Ankara's zero problem
policy with its neighbors -- a policy that the West has begun to
criticize -- will be that problems with Armenia will be ironed out,
and Turkey's regional position will be strengthened. And after this
happens, no matter which administration comes to the helm of Armenia,
when the agenda turns to cooperation with the West, Yerevan will create
policies that speak more to its relations with Turkey than with France.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is a strategic outlook expert.
From: Baghdasarian
by Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu*
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Nov 2 2011
An early October visit paid to the Armenian capital Yerevan by French
President Nicolas Sarkozy has triggered not only a new predicament in
terms of Turkey's relations with Armenia, but also marked an important
turning point regarding France's regional influence.
In order for Turkey to better understand this current predicament,
it would do well to examine the reciprocal good will visits that have
taken place between France and Armenia in recent months, as well as
the direction taken by French investments in the Caucuses these days.
Sarkozy's two-day visit to Yerevan (not to mention his hours-long stops
in Azerbaijan and Georgia) actually includes messages that relate to
the status of France within the Minsk Group. This attempt to "grab a
role" for France in the region fits in line with efforts that began
first in Africa and have now moved on to the Caucasus.
While statements made in Yerevan by Nicolas Sarkozy regarding 1915 and
Nagorno-Karabakh could be perceived as election-time fodder, they were
also aimed at strengthening the position of French stock in Armenia.
The ongoing reciprocal visits between France and Armenia shed some
light on the most recent heights reached in the attempt to create
stronger economic relations between these two countries.
First of all, a few people from the French parliament visited the
Karabakh leadership, which is not officially recognized by any
international organization or state, last August, calling on this
leadership to create a new legal model for itself. In fact, this visit
was labeled by these people as "the now-traditional French-Karabakh
inter-parliamentary visit." In this visit, which took place two months
in advance of Sarkozy's visit to Yerevan, when he made the statement,
"No one other than the French can understand just what Karabakh
means for Armenia," the French parliamentarians stressed that a
Kosovo model needed to be implemented in Karabakh and that Karabakh
possessed a unique character of its own. This turn of events, which
elicited negative reactions from Azerbaijan, was characterized by
the French Foreign Ministry as connected with "a visit made of the
own free will of the French parliamentarians." Still, this move by
the French remained in people's minds.
A visit paid a few weeks later to Yerevan by French Transportation
Minister Thierry Mariani was based around a variety of different
meetings aimed at developing dual relations. According to news that
emerged shortly in the wake of Mariani's visit, there was now talk
in Armenia of turning over 20 percent of the shares in the Electric
Network of Armenia, nearly 100 percent of which has up until now been
held by Russia, to the French. But concrete results on this front
were to emerge with Sarkozy's visit. It is well known that France
is interested not only in the electrical network and distribution in
Armenia, but also in the rebuilding and caretaking of a nuclear power
plant. Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan, who visited France after
his speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September, spoke
publicly about his pride in the fact that France is the second-largest
country to invest in Armenia. Noting that since the month of July,
French investment in Armenia has reached the level of $750 million,
President Sarksyan praised a French wine factory in Armenia, as well
as investments made by French companies such as Orange, Alcatel and
Pernod Ricard, all of which are active in Armenia. Yerevan Mayor
Karen Karapetian, who was in France for meetings at the same time
that President Sarksyan was there, also stated that the Armenians
were indebted to the French for the good will they have shown on the
genocide issue. During this time period, when reciprocal meetings
were more frequent, the French Embassy in Yerevan in concert with
the Armenian-French Business Club, created by the Armenian Foreign
Ministry, decided to shoulder the mission of helping guide French
investors in Armenia. The efforts made by French investors in the
North-South Highway project are also significant.
A 'turning point' in relations
And thus the most recent visit by Sarkozy to Armenia represents the
latest stage in the preparations that have been under way for a long
time now. The visit dealt with many topics that promise profit in the
long term for both Armenia and France and was -- to use Sarksyan's
description -- a "turning point."
Sarkozy, who rounded out his time in Yerevan by meeting with figures
such as Charles Aznavour and Patrick Devejian, asserted in comparing
the issue of Karabakh to clashes between the French and Germans that
the two countries in question could make advances by learning from
the experiences of Europe. Sarkozy, who used the Armenian word for
"genocide" during a speech given at the official introduction of the
statue of Jules Bastien-Lepage in Yerevan's French Square, was taking
the first step that would trigger a series of reciprocal jests. As
a response to France's friendly enterprises, President Sarksyan
presented many French government ministers and bureaucrats with the
Saint Mesrop Mashtot (founder of the Armenian alphabet) and Honor
medals. As for the French, they awarded President Sarksyan with the
"Legion d'honneur" and Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian
with the "Legion d'honneur Grand Officier."
There is little question that these steps taken are the sort that call
for a close watch to be kept on regional balances from here onwards.
But alongside it now being clear that France does not count Turkey
as being from the region, it is also striking just how hesitant
its stance towards Russia is. Because alongside the moves that seem
to ignore the weighty economic presence of Russia in the Armenian
economy, France, in trying to shoulder a leader role in the Karabakh
issue, is also taking on a topic that directly concerns Russia. And
no matter how much Sarkozy may try to disguise the hesitant nature
of France's approach to Russia -- by doing things like urging the
Georgian leadership to foster better relations with Moscow -- the
truth is that the sort of steps that Turkey can take that will bring
about diplomatic success on the Armenian front are the sort that will
receive support from both Russia and the US. It must not be forgotten
that the greatest success that will come of Ankara's zero problem
policy with its neighbors -- a policy that the West has begun to
criticize -- will be that problems with Armenia will be ironed out,
and Turkey's regional position will be strengthened. And after this
happens, no matter which administration comes to the helm of Armenia,
when the agenda turns to cooperation with the West, Yerevan will create
policies that speak more to its relations with Turkey than with France.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is a strategic outlook expert.
From: Baghdasarian