Tweet
ALIYEV'S REGIME IS VULNERABLE NOW
Igor Muradyan
Lragir.am News
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics24048.html
17:57:25 - 02/11/2011
In such a complicated and vulnerable period for the Azerbaijani
ruling regime the Azerbaijani opposition hesitates and is unable
to ensure mass protests, as well as to unite. The public statements
and gatherings of the opposition leaders are just an imitation of the
existence of a bloc of opposition parties and organizations. Political
activity involves only the urban population and separate groups of the
population. The social platform of the opposition is concerned. The
opposition is not considered to be a challenge for the Aliyev family.
There is confidence that the government will be able to prevent the
political success of the opposition.
Currently, new threats to the ruling regime in Azerbaijan have
emerged. The decay at the administrative and political level and
structural level of the government has started. These processes
concern not only the civil system but also security bodies. There is
information on intensifying protest in the regions and army.
The situation at the front line has become uncontrollable for the
Azerbaijani army command. The conflict may start at any time. It
is explained by the unsatisfactory situation in the armed forces,
the high rate of corruption, and the conflict between the ministry
of defense and the ministry of national security. The leaders of both
security agencies have presidential ambitions.
The leaders of the Azerbaijani ministries of defense and national
security have established ties with New Azerbaijan Party and the
centers of concentration of financial resources, the U.S. and Turkish
embassies, some political organizations and foundations of Turkey
integrated with government structures. The security agencies remain
loyal to the Aliyev clan because their leaders will not have official
and political prospects if the opponents of the current regime come
to government.
The plight in the army is actively used by all the interested groups
in Azerbaijan, namely the official groups and the opposition. Now it
is certain that the Aliyev clan controls the situation without special
efforts. In the recent years a lot of representatives of political and
entrepreneurial classes, a brand new bureaucracy has emerged around
this clan which is described by pragmatism and irrational thinking.
In fact, for the new Azerbaijani bureaucracy the national idea is oil
and oil projects. It has a uniting role. The ruling clan possesses a
lot of possibilities in restricting and pressuring the activities of
the opposition. Even if we assume that the opposition will be able
to reach the second round of elections under external control and
get 35-45% of votes, it will not solve the problem of rotation.
The Azerbaijani society is marginalized to the maximum degree. It
is an absolutely unorganized mass of people and is not interested
in politics. Hardly 2500 people are politically and socially active,
which cannot have a significant influence on the political processes.
The opposition groups are preparing for the elections and are trying
to get sources of financing in Russia, Turkey and the United States.
One can be confident to state that in the first stage the opposition
will not be able to nominate a united candidate and is doomed to formal
participation in elections. The opinions of foreign interested forces
differ. The United States and the United Kingdom have made a principal
decision to support the Aliyev family. Supporting the Musavat Party
and its leader Isa Ghambar, Turkey will not break its close relations
with the Aliyevs. Iran and Russia are naturally interested in keeping
the rule of the Aliyevs.
Armenia also makes efforts to support the Azerbaijani ruling regime.
The ethnic minorities in Azerbaijan (Lezgi, Talish, Dagestani,
Iranian ethnic groups, Kurds) which make up 35% of the population are
worried about the possible victory of fundamentalist Musavat Party in
elections which preaches political Turkism. The general public fears
chaos and disorder, and relates stability to the continuation of the
ruling regime.
In Azerbaijan, change of government is possible only in case of an
armed coup or through a conspiracy inside the New Azerbaijan Party.
Heidar Aliyev~Rs efforts at one time resulted in the transition
of a mute pro-presidential corporation into a real political
group. Inside this party, relatively sovereign centers have emerged
which are partnerships of Nakhijevan and other clans, which have
great possibilities, and have greater ambitions in politics and in
the distribution of oil revenues. The leaders of these centers of
government plainly oppose to Ilham Aliyev~Rs presidency.
They suggested supporting Rasul Guliyev, the greatest enemy of the
Aliyev family, ex-speaker, now a multimillionaire living in the United
States, who also comes from Nakhijevan. Even the party leaders who
are fully loyal to Ilham Aliyev are conducting an alternative policy,
establishing relations with the representatives of the opposition
and the diplomats of the U.S., the U.K. and Turkey.
Ostensibly, the family will be able to remain in government. It
mostly depends on the ability to distribute resources inside the
government bodies. Now it is not done quite ~Sfairly~T, according to
the evaluation of some centers of the Azerbaijani government. Besides,
willingness is felt in different sets and groups in Azerbaijan to
remove Ilham Aliyev and his supporters from government by force.
Ilham Aliyev learns information on such intentions and moods from time
to tome but it is not clear if this information reflects the reality
or if it is the blackmail of one ambitious group or another. Ilham
Aliyev is trying to increase control on security bodies but he hasn~Rt
succeeded yet.
From: A. Papazian
Igor Muradyan
Lragir.am News
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics24048.html
17:57:25 - 02/11/2011
In such a complicated and vulnerable period for the Azerbaijani
ruling regime the Azerbaijani opposition hesitates and is unable
to ensure mass protests, as well as to unite. The public statements
and gatherings of the opposition leaders are just an imitation of the
existence of a bloc of opposition parties and organizations. Political
activity involves only the urban population and separate groups of the
population. The social platform of the opposition is concerned. The
opposition is not considered to be a challenge for the Aliyev family.
There is confidence that the government will be able to prevent the
political success of the opposition.
Currently, new threats to the ruling regime in Azerbaijan have
emerged. The decay at the administrative and political level and
structural level of the government has started. These processes
concern not only the civil system but also security bodies. There is
information on intensifying protest in the regions and army.
The situation at the front line has become uncontrollable for the
Azerbaijani army command. The conflict may start at any time. It
is explained by the unsatisfactory situation in the armed forces,
the high rate of corruption, and the conflict between the ministry
of defense and the ministry of national security. The leaders of both
security agencies have presidential ambitions.
The leaders of the Azerbaijani ministries of defense and national
security have established ties with New Azerbaijan Party and the
centers of concentration of financial resources, the U.S. and Turkish
embassies, some political organizations and foundations of Turkey
integrated with government structures. The security agencies remain
loyal to the Aliyev clan because their leaders will not have official
and political prospects if the opponents of the current regime come
to government.
The plight in the army is actively used by all the interested groups
in Azerbaijan, namely the official groups and the opposition. Now it
is certain that the Aliyev clan controls the situation without special
efforts. In the recent years a lot of representatives of political and
entrepreneurial classes, a brand new bureaucracy has emerged around
this clan which is described by pragmatism and irrational thinking.
In fact, for the new Azerbaijani bureaucracy the national idea is oil
and oil projects. It has a uniting role. The ruling clan possesses a
lot of possibilities in restricting and pressuring the activities of
the opposition. Even if we assume that the opposition will be able
to reach the second round of elections under external control and
get 35-45% of votes, it will not solve the problem of rotation.
The Azerbaijani society is marginalized to the maximum degree. It
is an absolutely unorganized mass of people and is not interested
in politics. Hardly 2500 people are politically and socially active,
which cannot have a significant influence on the political processes.
The opposition groups are preparing for the elections and are trying
to get sources of financing in Russia, Turkey and the United States.
One can be confident to state that in the first stage the opposition
will not be able to nominate a united candidate and is doomed to formal
participation in elections. The opinions of foreign interested forces
differ. The United States and the United Kingdom have made a principal
decision to support the Aliyev family. Supporting the Musavat Party
and its leader Isa Ghambar, Turkey will not break its close relations
with the Aliyevs. Iran and Russia are naturally interested in keeping
the rule of the Aliyevs.
Armenia also makes efforts to support the Azerbaijani ruling regime.
The ethnic minorities in Azerbaijan (Lezgi, Talish, Dagestani,
Iranian ethnic groups, Kurds) which make up 35% of the population are
worried about the possible victory of fundamentalist Musavat Party in
elections which preaches political Turkism. The general public fears
chaos and disorder, and relates stability to the continuation of the
ruling regime.
In Azerbaijan, change of government is possible only in case of an
armed coup or through a conspiracy inside the New Azerbaijan Party.
Heidar Aliyev~Rs efforts at one time resulted in the transition
of a mute pro-presidential corporation into a real political
group. Inside this party, relatively sovereign centers have emerged
which are partnerships of Nakhijevan and other clans, which have
great possibilities, and have greater ambitions in politics and in
the distribution of oil revenues. The leaders of these centers of
government plainly oppose to Ilham Aliyev~Rs presidency.
They suggested supporting Rasul Guliyev, the greatest enemy of the
Aliyev family, ex-speaker, now a multimillionaire living in the United
States, who also comes from Nakhijevan. Even the party leaders who
are fully loyal to Ilham Aliyev are conducting an alternative policy,
establishing relations with the representatives of the opposition
and the diplomats of the U.S., the U.K. and Turkey.
Ostensibly, the family will be able to remain in government. It
mostly depends on the ability to distribute resources inside the
government bodies. Now it is not done quite ~Sfairly~T, according to
the evaluation of some centers of the Azerbaijani government. Besides,
willingness is felt in different sets and groups in Azerbaijan to
remove Ilham Aliyev and his supporters from government by force.
Ilham Aliyev learns information on such intentions and moods from time
to tome but it is not clear if this information reflects the reality
or if it is the blackmail of one ambitious group or another. Ilham
Aliyev is trying to increase control on security bodies but he hasn~Rt
succeeded yet.
From: A. Papazian