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DORMANT POWER REVIVAL
http://www.economist.com/node/21536653
Nov 5th 2011
Tests mount up for Turkey's newly assertive foreign policy
..ON A clear day in 2006 Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister,
took a leisurely drive along the Turkish-Syrian border with Syria's
president, Bashar Assad, at the wheel. Ahmet Davutoglu, then Mr
Erdogan's foreign-policy adviser, cheerfully translated from the
back seat. With 700km (450 miles) of shared border, Syria is central
to Mr Davutoglu's "zero problems with neighbours" policy. Syria, it
was hoped, might make a transition from authoritarian dictatorship
to Turkish-style democracy in which secularism, piety and the free
market happily co-exist. Turkish experts were sent to Damascus to
plot this bright future, just as Turkey was trying to mend fences
between Syria and Israel.
.
Nowadays, Mr Erdogan and Mr Davutoglu hint at military intervention
against Mr Assad if he doesn't stop murdering his own people. The
same goes for Israel if it doesn't stop drilling for gas with the
Greek-Cypriots in the east Mediterranean. Friendship with Iran has
soured after Turkey agreed to let NATO deploy parts of its missile
shield on Turkish soil. Membership talks with the European Union are
in effect frozen. So is a set of protocols Turkey signed with Armenia
last year to establish diplomatic relations and reopen the border. And
the Turks are carrying out air strikes against separatist Kurdish
PKK rebels based in northern Iraq, complicating relations with America.
Turkey remains busy in many different areas-including in its old
Balkan stamping-ground (see article) and, this week, hosting a summit
with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Yet Soli Ozel, a political scientist,
concludes that "the zero [problems with] neighbours policy has come
unstuck."
This state of affairs is not entirely of Turkey's making. Like the
rest of the world, it was caught unprepared by the Arab spring. To his
credit, Mr Erdogan was the first Muslim leader to tell Egypt's Hosni
Mubarak to step down. After initially rejecting NATO intervention in
Libya, Turkey backed its operations. And after months of patiently
pressing Mr Assad for reform, Turkey opened its doors to the Syrian
opposition.
The meltdown with Israel came after it attacked Gaza in December 2008
(just as Turkey was about to cement a deal between Israel and Syria).
The final blow came when Israeli commandos raided a Turkish-led
aid convoy bound for Gaza last year, killing nine civilians. Turkey
kicked out Israel's ambassador, and still rules out reconciliation
unless Israel apologises for the deaths and pays compensation to the
victims' families. Mr Erdogan has escalated his anti-Israeli rhetoric,
insisting that Israel lift its blockade on Gaza. Such talk has boosted
his popularity on the Arab street and among pious Turks. Some of Mr
Erdogan's advisers say America is secretly pleased because, as one
says, "only pro-Western moderate Muslim Turkey can burnish America's
battered image, not Israel."
This is naive. Not only does the breach with Israel put America in an
awkward position (especially close to the next presidential election);
but also it reduces Turkish influence. This is particularly apparent
in Syria. It was Turkey's military alliance with Israel that helped
to prompt an intimidated Syria to kick out the PKK's leader, Abdullah
Ocalan, in 1998. Nowadays the Syrians are unfazed by the presence of
Colonel Riad al-Asaad, a Syrian army defector in the southern border
province of Hatay. Waving a cell phone, Colonel Asaad excitedly claims
that he is running an armed insurgency from a camp in Turkey and
that the regime's overthrow is nigh. His claims seem hardly credible
since Turkey is neither arming nor training his men. Yet they might
not ring so hollow had Turkey maintained its military ties with Israel.
And the bloodshed in Syria continues. NATO says it will not intervene.
A war-weary America is not about to wade into what might be an even
stickier conflict than the one in Iraq. Pressure is building on Turkey
to take the lead. Talk of a buffer zone along the Turkish border is
growing louder. Yet Turkey has enough trouble coping with the PKK, let
alone getting embroiled in regime change. Syria is said to have resumed
support for the Kurdish rebels, who kill Turkish soldiers almost daily.
America has agreed to give Turkey three Cobra attack helicopters to
be used against the PKK, but the sale may run into congressional
opposition because of the enmity between Turkey and Israel. One
might expect American lawmakers also to worry about the arrests of
activists, including this week a veteran human-rights defender and
a law professor. Turkey's Human Rights Association is investigating
claims that the army has used chemical weapons against the PKK. These
are probably overblown, but the refusal to hand over the bodies of
19 rebels killed in a recent clash in the south-eastern province of
Hakkari has not helped. Luckily for Mr Erdogan, America has rarely
made much fuss about Turkey's human rights.
http://www.economist.com/node/21536653
Nov 5th 2011
Tests mount up for Turkey's newly assertive foreign policy
..ON A clear day in 2006 Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister,
took a leisurely drive along the Turkish-Syrian border with Syria's
president, Bashar Assad, at the wheel. Ahmet Davutoglu, then Mr
Erdogan's foreign-policy adviser, cheerfully translated from the
back seat. With 700km (450 miles) of shared border, Syria is central
to Mr Davutoglu's "zero problems with neighbours" policy. Syria, it
was hoped, might make a transition from authoritarian dictatorship
to Turkish-style democracy in which secularism, piety and the free
market happily co-exist. Turkish experts were sent to Damascus to
plot this bright future, just as Turkey was trying to mend fences
between Syria and Israel.
.
Nowadays, Mr Erdogan and Mr Davutoglu hint at military intervention
against Mr Assad if he doesn't stop murdering his own people. The
same goes for Israel if it doesn't stop drilling for gas with the
Greek-Cypriots in the east Mediterranean. Friendship with Iran has
soured after Turkey agreed to let NATO deploy parts of its missile
shield on Turkish soil. Membership talks with the European Union are
in effect frozen. So is a set of protocols Turkey signed with Armenia
last year to establish diplomatic relations and reopen the border. And
the Turks are carrying out air strikes against separatist Kurdish
PKK rebels based in northern Iraq, complicating relations with America.
Turkey remains busy in many different areas-including in its old
Balkan stamping-ground (see article) and, this week, hosting a summit
with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Yet Soli Ozel, a political scientist,
concludes that "the zero [problems with] neighbours policy has come
unstuck."
This state of affairs is not entirely of Turkey's making. Like the
rest of the world, it was caught unprepared by the Arab spring. To his
credit, Mr Erdogan was the first Muslim leader to tell Egypt's Hosni
Mubarak to step down. After initially rejecting NATO intervention in
Libya, Turkey backed its operations. And after months of patiently
pressing Mr Assad for reform, Turkey opened its doors to the Syrian
opposition.
The meltdown with Israel came after it attacked Gaza in December 2008
(just as Turkey was about to cement a deal between Israel and Syria).
The final blow came when Israeli commandos raided a Turkish-led
aid convoy bound for Gaza last year, killing nine civilians. Turkey
kicked out Israel's ambassador, and still rules out reconciliation
unless Israel apologises for the deaths and pays compensation to the
victims' families. Mr Erdogan has escalated his anti-Israeli rhetoric,
insisting that Israel lift its blockade on Gaza. Such talk has boosted
his popularity on the Arab street and among pious Turks. Some of Mr
Erdogan's advisers say America is secretly pleased because, as one
says, "only pro-Western moderate Muslim Turkey can burnish America's
battered image, not Israel."
This is naive. Not only does the breach with Israel put America in an
awkward position (especially close to the next presidential election);
but also it reduces Turkish influence. This is particularly apparent
in Syria. It was Turkey's military alliance with Israel that helped
to prompt an intimidated Syria to kick out the PKK's leader, Abdullah
Ocalan, in 1998. Nowadays the Syrians are unfazed by the presence of
Colonel Riad al-Asaad, a Syrian army defector in the southern border
province of Hatay. Waving a cell phone, Colonel Asaad excitedly claims
that he is running an armed insurgency from a camp in Turkey and
that the regime's overthrow is nigh. His claims seem hardly credible
since Turkey is neither arming nor training his men. Yet they might
not ring so hollow had Turkey maintained its military ties with Israel.
And the bloodshed in Syria continues. NATO says it will not intervene.
A war-weary America is not about to wade into what might be an even
stickier conflict than the one in Iraq. Pressure is building on Turkey
to take the lead. Talk of a buffer zone along the Turkish border is
growing louder. Yet Turkey has enough trouble coping with the PKK, let
alone getting embroiled in regime change. Syria is said to have resumed
support for the Kurdish rebels, who kill Turkish soldiers almost daily.
America has agreed to give Turkey three Cobra attack helicopters to
be used against the PKK, but the sale may run into congressional
opposition because of the enmity between Turkey and Israel. One
might expect American lawmakers also to worry about the arrests of
activists, including this week a veteran human-rights defender and
a law professor. Turkey's Human Rights Association is investigating
claims that the army has used chemical weapons against the PKK. These
are probably overblown, but the refusal to hand over the bodies of
19 rebels killed in a recent clash in the south-eastern province of
Hakkari has not helped. Luckily for Mr Erdogan, America has rarely
made much fuss about Turkey's human rights.