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  • Ottoman Dreamer

    OTTOMAN DREAMER

    http://www.economist.com/node/21536598
    Nov 5th 2011

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan's activist foreign policy has its strengths.

    Cheap populism is not one of them

    IN THEIR awakening this year, many Arabs have looked to Turkey for
    inspiration. Turkey is not just a fellow Muslim country and their
    former imperial power. It also offers, for all its faults, a shining
    (and rare) example in the Islamic world of a strong democracy and a
    successful free-market economy. And the Turks have responded well, if
    sometimes belatedly. They were early to call for change in Egypt. They
    endorsed NATO's intervention in Libya. They are now unequivocally
    backing the opposition to the Assad regime in neighbouring Syria.

    Yet Turkey's active foreign policy has attracted censure in parts of
    the West, especially America. Critics in Washington recall the Turks'
    2003 refusal to allow American troops to cross their territory to
    invade Iraq. Nowadays they accuse the Turkish government of turning its
    back on the European Union and NATO. They point to continuing harsh
    treatment of Turkey's Kurds and soft treatment of Iran. Above all,
    they blame Turkey for switching from being a firm friend of Israel, the
    only other established democracy in the region, into an implacable foe.

    Are such sweeping accusations justified? On the whole, no. The
    mildly Islamist Justice and Development (AK) government led by Recep
    Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, is right to pursue a policy,
    first enunciated by Ahmet Davutoglu, now foreign minister, of "zero
    problems with the neighbours". This is a big improvement on previous
    governments that largely ignored their own backyard. Turkey remains
    a bastion of NATO, with the biggest army after the United States
    and a vital American air-force base at Incirlik. It is EU members
    like Cyprus, France and Germany-and not Turkey-that have done most
    to stall Turkish negotiations to join their club.

    Even if broad-brush criticisms of Turkey's foreign policy are overdone,
    some narrower ones are closer to the mark. It is no use professing to
    want zero problems with the neighbours without making a much broader
    effort to resolve such ancient quarrels as those with Armenia or over
    Cyprus. Turkey's newly strong support for the Syrian opposition may
    be both brave and admirable, but the Turks should have urged reform
    and some dialogue between the opposition and the regime at an earlier
    stage (see article).

    The mercurial and often autocratic instincts of Mr Erdogan are
    not conducive to careful diplomacy, as his belligerent recent
    outbursts over Greek-Cypriot and Israeli gas exploration in the
    eastern Mediterranean have shown. As complex relations with Syria,
    Iran and Iraq are also confirming again, Turkey must reach a political
    settlement with its own Kurds if it is to play a positive role in the
    region. Yet Mr Erdogan seems to be moving back to a purely military
    solution to the conflict with rebels in the Kurdistan Workers' Party
    (PKK).

    Mend fences with Jerusalem, too

    And then there are relations with Israel, which have never
    recovered after the Israeli army's killing of eight Turks and one
    Turkish-American aboard a Gaza-bound ship, the Mavi Marmara, last
    year. The intransigent Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister,
    is not popular with many EU governments or with the current American
    administration. He has been foolishly stubborn to refuse even the
    smallest apology over the Mavi Marmara. But if Mr Erdogan calculates
    that he can pander to anti-Israeli prejudice at home without paying a
    price abroad, he is making a mistake. Turkey stands to gain from stable
    Arab-Israeli relations, which it ought ideally to be well-placed to
    promote. And, like it or not, many in the West take Turkey's attitude
    to Israel as a yardstick of its broader intentions.

    If Turkey wants to preserve good relations with the West, it must
    find some way of mending fences with Israel as well.




    From: A. Papazian
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