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PRESSING SERZH SARGSYAN
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24101.html
Published: 15:55:48 - 07/11/2011
What is now happening inside the Armenian government is difficult
to explain by one circumstance or some circumstances. What is now
happening is Serzh Sargsyan's reaction to the situation. And the
situation is multilayered. It must be divided into two platforms,
internal and external. The layers of the situation are dislocated on
both platforms.
The layers of the internal platform are the Armenian National
Congress, different civil movements, initiatives and groups, almost
revolutionary change in IT, the development of the internet, the
existence of multiple poles inside the government, the obvious rivalry
of two wings, the so-called old and new members of the government,
their struggle for an influential and deciding role in the government.
Even though the public rating of the Armenian National Congress has
dropped, the mobilization potential has weakened, and the Congress
now has very modest ambitions in terms of a popular movement, it
is a fact that Ter-Petrosyan has been able to shape an organization
which has the potential to cause the government's head to ache. This
headache will not be fatal but may cause stress which the government
does not need at all, especially in the crucial periods of elections.
Each civil movement and initiative by itself is too little, and
their effectiveness is highly relative, as well as their upcoming
establishment of a common platform is highly theoretical, though some
efforts or thoughts on this are definitely there. In any case, these
civil movements have caused an irreversible change in the situation,
and the related visions will multiply in time, which means increasing
public pressure and qualitative change of this pressure.
In the domestic aspect, a group of young activists came to power
together with Serzh Sargsyan, or some representatives of this
group have expanded their participation in government, and are now
increasingly displaying ambitions to oust the old members and establish
their government. The meaning of the processes inside the government
is perhaps narrowed to interpretations referring to neutralization
of Robert Kocharyan's influence. Of course, it is also true and is
important on the eve of the elections but the problem is perhaps
the rivalry of the old and new members of the government. And this
rivalry supposes certain differences in quality because without more
modern approaches the success of the new members is impossible.
In this meaning, the new members and the society, if not in strategic
terms, then in tactical terms, at least on a short-term basis, are
"natural allies" and could be mutually useful, intentionally or not.
The problem of limited economic resources is another problem in
Armenia, which also aggravates the competition inside the Armenian
government, at the same time raising sharply the problems of social
security of the public. Who is going to ensure the solution of social
problems, in what proportion, what will they get in return for their
self-sacrifice? These questions are lying at the basis of internal
relationships in the government.
As to the external platform, the situation would also be highly
limited, should it be fitted in the context of the Karabakh issue and
the Armenian and Turkish normalization. Obviously, the geopolitical
importance of the Caucasus in the global processes remains high and
tends to go higher. Hence, the strategic role of Armenia in political
and civilization terms is also rather high. The point is that Armenia
obviously bears such potential in the Caucasian region and around it.
It is also notable that the Georgian tryout of this potential,
despite Saakashvili's efforts, fails and has no serious political and
civilization prospects. In this sense, Armenia has no alternative,
which is good luck for us. This regional segment is an essential
"outpost" of modernization, generation of values and technology.
Again, luckily for us, Armenia is important for the world beyond
the Armenian and Turkish normalization and the settlement of the
Karabakh issue.
It makes the Armenian elite clearly responsible. Understanding
the destructive role of the Russian factor, the West does not go
for a change in Armenia or revolutionary imposition of the issue
of responsibility of the Armenian government in terms of global
developments, nevertheless stage-by-stage pressure on the Armenian
government is increasing, reducing the possibility for balancing
maneuvers by the Armenian government.
The German Ambassador Hans-Jochen Schmidt's statement is notable
who said that Serzh Sargsyan launched a government reshuffle ahead
of the elections because he has promised to the EU leaders to hold
good elections.
This is not the first time the Armenian government promised and broke
its promise. But this is the first time the Western diplomats evaluated
the government reshuffle and voiced its link with commitments. In
other words, the next elections are another haven for the West when the
Armenian government is made to face the issue of real responsibility,
definitely limiting the traditional possibility for maneuver.
In addition, a definite change of Russia's role is also discerned.
Putin's smooth return was ensured in the result of compromise with the
West. The West officially responded loyally to Putin's return. The
evaluation of experts being rather tough, it was nevertheless
balanced. Apparently, Russia and the west have reached global
agreements, compromises, evidence to which will be the overcoming
of Georgia's veto on Russia's membership to the WTO. So, it is not
ruled out that Armenia is part of the chain of compromise, not by
itself but as a strategic link in the Caucasian chain.
These diverse internal and external layers determine the current
developments inside the Armenian government. It is perhaps obvious
that no Armenian government has ever faced such a broad range of
reasons. Consequently, in this unprecedented situation the government
is obliged to find new solutions of problems, look for new "allies",
at least display some responsibility to not only the government poles
and external political centers but also their own citizens.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24101.html
Published: 15:55:48 - 07/11/2011
What is now happening inside the Armenian government is difficult
to explain by one circumstance or some circumstances. What is now
happening is Serzh Sargsyan's reaction to the situation. And the
situation is multilayered. It must be divided into two platforms,
internal and external. The layers of the situation are dislocated on
both platforms.
The layers of the internal platform are the Armenian National
Congress, different civil movements, initiatives and groups, almost
revolutionary change in IT, the development of the internet, the
existence of multiple poles inside the government, the obvious rivalry
of two wings, the so-called old and new members of the government,
their struggle for an influential and deciding role in the government.
Even though the public rating of the Armenian National Congress has
dropped, the mobilization potential has weakened, and the Congress
now has very modest ambitions in terms of a popular movement, it
is a fact that Ter-Petrosyan has been able to shape an organization
which has the potential to cause the government's head to ache. This
headache will not be fatal but may cause stress which the government
does not need at all, especially in the crucial periods of elections.
Each civil movement and initiative by itself is too little, and
their effectiveness is highly relative, as well as their upcoming
establishment of a common platform is highly theoretical, though some
efforts or thoughts on this are definitely there. In any case, these
civil movements have caused an irreversible change in the situation,
and the related visions will multiply in time, which means increasing
public pressure and qualitative change of this pressure.
In the domestic aspect, a group of young activists came to power
together with Serzh Sargsyan, or some representatives of this
group have expanded their participation in government, and are now
increasingly displaying ambitions to oust the old members and establish
their government. The meaning of the processes inside the government
is perhaps narrowed to interpretations referring to neutralization
of Robert Kocharyan's influence. Of course, it is also true and is
important on the eve of the elections but the problem is perhaps
the rivalry of the old and new members of the government. And this
rivalry supposes certain differences in quality because without more
modern approaches the success of the new members is impossible.
In this meaning, the new members and the society, if not in strategic
terms, then in tactical terms, at least on a short-term basis, are
"natural allies" and could be mutually useful, intentionally or not.
The problem of limited economic resources is another problem in
Armenia, which also aggravates the competition inside the Armenian
government, at the same time raising sharply the problems of social
security of the public. Who is going to ensure the solution of social
problems, in what proportion, what will they get in return for their
self-sacrifice? These questions are lying at the basis of internal
relationships in the government.
As to the external platform, the situation would also be highly
limited, should it be fitted in the context of the Karabakh issue and
the Armenian and Turkish normalization. Obviously, the geopolitical
importance of the Caucasus in the global processes remains high and
tends to go higher. Hence, the strategic role of Armenia in political
and civilization terms is also rather high. The point is that Armenia
obviously bears such potential in the Caucasian region and around it.
It is also notable that the Georgian tryout of this potential,
despite Saakashvili's efforts, fails and has no serious political and
civilization prospects. In this sense, Armenia has no alternative,
which is good luck for us. This regional segment is an essential
"outpost" of modernization, generation of values and technology.
Again, luckily for us, Armenia is important for the world beyond
the Armenian and Turkish normalization and the settlement of the
Karabakh issue.
It makes the Armenian elite clearly responsible. Understanding
the destructive role of the Russian factor, the West does not go
for a change in Armenia or revolutionary imposition of the issue
of responsibility of the Armenian government in terms of global
developments, nevertheless stage-by-stage pressure on the Armenian
government is increasing, reducing the possibility for balancing
maneuvers by the Armenian government.
The German Ambassador Hans-Jochen Schmidt's statement is notable
who said that Serzh Sargsyan launched a government reshuffle ahead
of the elections because he has promised to the EU leaders to hold
good elections.
This is not the first time the Armenian government promised and broke
its promise. But this is the first time the Western diplomats evaluated
the government reshuffle and voiced its link with commitments. In
other words, the next elections are another haven for the West when the
Armenian government is made to face the issue of real responsibility,
definitely limiting the traditional possibility for maneuver.
In addition, a definite change of Russia's role is also discerned.
Putin's smooth return was ensured in the result of compromise with the
West. The West officially responded loyally to Putin's return. The
evaluation of experts being rather tough, it was nevertheless
balanced. Apparently, Russia and the west have reached global
agreements, compromises, evidence to which will be the overcoming
of Georgia's veto on Russia's membership to the WTO. So, it is not
ruled out that Armenia is part of the chain of compromise, not by
itself but as a strategic link in the Caucasian chain.
These diverse internal and external layers determine the current
developments inside the Armenian government. It is perhaps obvious
that no Armenian government has ever faced such a broad range of
reasons. Consequently, in this unprecedented situation the government
is obliged to find new solutions of problems, look for new "allies",
at least display some responsibility to not only the government poles
and external political centers but also their own citizens.