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HIGH-RANKING RESIGNATIONS AND LOGIC OF SNAP ELECTIONS
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Tuesday, November 8, 10:41
The latest resignations of the Armenian high-ranking politicians and
officials, particularly, the resignations of Speaker of Parliament
Hovik Abrahamyan, Head of Police Alik Sargsyan and even Mayor of
Yerevan Karen Karapetyan have become rather unexpected developments
for many people. However, against the background of continuous
rumors saying that the parade of resignations will continue in the
near future, it is getting clear that all the latest and future
resignations are part of one general process of "weeding" of the
political field. No doubt that the logic of personnel reshuffle inside
the power is comprehensive for nobody, even for the political elite
in Armenia. Today one thing is clear: the authorities in the person
of Serzh Sargsyan and the variegated Republican Party of Armenia (RPA)
are getting ready for the elections, strengthening their positions by
new appointments. But one thing is unclear: whether these elections
will be regular or snap elections...
No matter how paradoxical it is, the possibility and prospects of snap
elections in Armenia have grown after the Leader of Armenian National
Congress (ANC), ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan's statement about
the ANC's factual refusal from snap elections and about their desire
to focus on preparation of transparent parliamentary election. This
supposition is based on the fact that after the ANC refused to gain
snap elections, their prospect has only grown in the authorities'
eyes, because the holding of still relevant snap elections will no
longer seem to be the retreat of the authorities and victory of the
opposition, even despite the fact that about half a year is left
until the parliamentary election.
This version is also conditioned by the leakage of information from
the RPA, according to which nothing can be ruled out and snap elections
can become a reality if necessary. This leakage started shortly after
Ter-Petrosyan's statement that the ANC is changing its priorities. The
ANC lifted the demand about the snap elections, because this was one
of the items of the ANC's arrangements with the authorities within the
frames of the failed dialogue. In the meantime, the latest developments
at least demonstrate that in fact only the visible part of the dialogue
has failed, whereas the main part of the general plan continues being
put into effect. This is proved at least by the assessments that the
ANC contends for 17-25 seats in the parliament of 2012.
At the same time, the true reasons of the latest high-ranking
resignations may be known to President Sargsyan only, who successfully
continues applying his excellent chess skills in the politics. The
pro-power forces are trying to present the ongoing developments
as a normal process connected with the pre-election campaign. The
opposition in the person of the Armenian National Congress is speaking
of a disclosed collusion aimed at dethronement of Serzh Sargsyan. In
general, the ANC is inclined to qualify the latest personnel reshuffle
as weakness of the incumbent authorities' structure and the president's
desire to consolidate his positions with the help of well-tried people,
who are not connected with the former leadership.
This is demonstrated by the appointment of the ex-head of Military
Police Vladimir Gasparyan to the post of the head of Armenian Police.
To remind, Vladimir Gasparyan was the authorized representative of
Serzh Sargsyan when the latter was the minister of national security.
One more paradox of the current situation is that, actually, both
versions (preparation for snap elections and neutralization of the
collusion) are correct, because the president, who wants to raise
his rating inside and outside the country, needs reliable people in
the key positions of the state. Such people are a priority given the
fact that in case of snap parliamentary and presidential elections
the power will be shaky for some time and the persons, on whom it
will depend, may have the temptation to get their hands that power.
This is proved by Alik Sargsyan's statement about his loyalty to
Serzh Sargsyan in the position of the president's advisor and even
without this position that he made after his resignation from the post
of head of Armenian Police. It is not clear what was the reason of
dismissing the Speaker of Parliament (who is, by the way, the father
of Prosperous Armenia Leader Gagik Tsarukyan's daughter) now that
more than half a year is still left until the elections. Actually,
the Armenian Constitution allows him to combine the activities of
the Speaker with the activities of the head of the RPA Election Staff.
Perhaps, Hovik Abrahamyan will even fail to receive this position. The
resignation of Mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan is beyond the general
logic. He had no visible pretension for a position on the political
Olympus. Some politicians are inclined to explain it as the result
of discrepancies between the ex-mayor and the Armenian president's
son-in-law Mikayel Minasyan. But this is most likely a hackneyed
approach. But the fact that from now on Minasyan will keep an eye on
the ex-speaker in the RPA Election Staff is quite logical.
The persistent forecasts that the year 2012 will be rather complicated
for Armenia from the socio-economic viewpoint are also in favor of
snap elections in Armenia. The increase of tax revenues envisaged by
the draft budget for 2012 demonstrates that the necessity to maintain
the social stability leads to the growth of tax burden on business,
first of all, on the large business, which is not accustomed to paying
taxes, which is a potentially destabilizing factor by itself. For
instance, the draft state budget stipulates considerable reduction of
the deficit by increasing the tax revenues (duties, taxes and social
payments) by 101 bln AMD or 273 mln USD.
The further decline of living standards of the citizens of Armenia,
where no less than half of the population teeter on the edge of
poverty line (34% according to independent experts), inevitably
makes the protesting mood of the voters even more relevant. This
may result in the growth of opportunities of the forces, whom
the current personnel reshuffle aims to neutralize. Fortunately,
there is a vivid example of Greece affected by an economic crisis,
the government of which is going to resign even despite the vote of
confidence filed by the people. Thus, even the superficial analysis
of all the latest trends in the domestic policy and economy of the
republic allows proposing that it is the snap elections that will
allow the incumbent president to raise his rating both for its own
country and for the foreign partners, on whom, unfortunately, the
domestic political life of Armenia depends to a great extent.
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Tuesday, November 8, 10:41
The latest resignations of the Armenian high-ranking politicians and
officials, particularly, the resignations of Speaker of Parliament
Hovik Abrahamyan, Head of Police Alik Sargsyan and even Mayor of
Yerevan Karen Karapetyan have become rather unexpected developments
for many people. However, against the background of continuous
rumors saying that the parade of resignations will continue in the
near future, it is getting clear that all the latest and future
resignations are part of one general process of "weeding" of the
political field. No doubt that the logic of personnel reshuffle inside
the power is comprehensive for nobody, even for the political elite
in Armenia. Today one thing is clear: the authorities in the person
of Serzh Sargsyan and the variegated Republican Party of Armenia (RPA)
are getting ready for the elections, strengthening their positions by
new appointments. But one thing is unclear: whether these elections
will be regular or snap elections...
No matter how paradoxical it is, the possibility and prospects of snap
elections in Armenia have grown after the Leader of Armenian National
Congress (ANC), ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan's statement about
the ANC's factual refusal from snap elections and about their desire
to focus on preparation of transparent parliamentary election. This
supposition is based on the fact that after the ANC refused to gain
snap elections, their prospect has only grown in the authorities'
eyes, because the holding of still relevant snap elections will no
longer seem to be the retreat of the authorities and victory of the
opposition, even despite the fact that about half a year is left
until the parliamentary election.
This version is also conditioned by the leakage of information from
the RPA, according to which nothing can be ruled out and snap elections
can become a reality if necessary. This leakage started shortly after
Ter-Petrosyan's statement that the ANC is changing its priorities. The
ANC lifted the demand about the snap elections, because this was one
of the items of the ANC's arrangements with the authorities within the
frames of the failed dialogue. In the meantime, the latest developments
at least demonstrate that in fact only the visible part of the dialogue
has failed, whereas the main part of the general plan continues being
put into effect. This is proved at least by the assessments that the
ANC contends for 17-25 seats in the parliament of 2012.
At the same time, the true reasons of the latest high-ranking
resignations may be known to President Sargsyan only, who successfully
continues applying his excellent chess skills in the politics. The
pro-power forces are trying to present the ongoing developments
as a normal process connected with the pre-election campaign. The
opposition in the person of the Armenian National Congress is speaking
of a disclosed collusion aimed at dethronement of Serzh Sargsyan. In
general, the ANC is inclined to qualify the latest personnel reshuffle
as weakness of the incumbent authorities' structure and the president's
desire to consolidate his positions with the help of well-tried people,
who are not connected with the former leadership.
This is demonstrated by the appointment of the ex-head of Military
Police Vladimir Gasparyan to the post of the head of Armenian Police.
To remind, Vladimir Gasparyan was the authorized representative of
Serzh Sargsyan when the latter was the minister of national security.
One more paradox of the current situation is that, actually, both
versions (preparation for snap elections and neutralization of the
collusion) are correct, because the president, who wants to raise
his rating inside and outside the country, needs reliable people in
the key positions of the state. Such people are a priority given the
fact that in case of snap parliamentary and presidential elections
the power will be shaky for some time and the persons, on whom it
will depend, may have the temptation to get their hands that power.
This is proved by Alik Sargsyan's statement about his loyalty to
Serzh Sargsyan in the position of the president's advisor and even
without this position that he made after his resignation from the post
of head of Armenian Police. It is not clear what was the reason of
dismissing the Speaker of Parliament (who is, by the way, the father
of Prosperous Armenia Leader Gagik Tsarukyan's daughter) now that
more than half a year is still left until the elections. Actually,
the Armenian Constitution allows him to combine the activities of
the Speaker with the activities of the head of the RPA Election Staff.
Perhaps, Hovik Abrahamyan will even fail to receive this position. The
resignation of Mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan is beyond the general
logic. He had no visible pretension for a position on the political
Olympus. Some politicians are inclined to explain it as the result
of discrepancies between the ex-mayor and the Armenian president's
son-in-law Mikayel Minasyan. But this is most likely a hackneyed
approach. But the fact that from now on Minasyan will keep an eye on
the ex-speaker in the RPA Election Staff is quite logical.
The persistent forecasts that the year 2012 will be rather complicated
for Armenia from the socio-economic viewpoint are also in favor of
snap elections in Armenia. The increase of tax revenues envisaged by
the draft budget for 2012 demonstrates that the necessity to maintain
the social stability leads to the growth of tax burden on business,
first of all, on the large business, which is not accustomed to paying
taxes, which is a potentially destabilizing factor by itself. For
instance, the draft state budget stipulates considerable reduction of
the deficit by increasing the tax revenues (duties, taxes and social
payments) by 101 bln AMD or 273 mln USD.
The further decline of living standards of the citizens of Armenia,
where no less than half of the population teeter on the edge of
poverty line (34% according to independent experts), inevitably
makes the protesting mood of the voters even more relevant. This
may result in the growth of opportunities of the forces, whom
the current personnel reshuffle aims to neutralize. Fortunately,
there is a vivid example of Greece affected by an economic crisis,
the government of which is going to resign even despite the vote of
confidence filed by the people. Thus, even the superficial analysis
of all the latest trends in the domestic policy and economy of the
republic allows proposing that it is the snap elections that will
allow the incumbent president to raise his rating both for its own
country and for the foreign partners, on whom, unfortunately, the
domestic political life of Armenia depends to a great extent.