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The Economist: ice on `frozen' Karabakh conflict can melt quickly
November 12, 2011 - 15:37 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - Nagorno-Karabakh is often described as one of
several post-Soviet `frozen conflicts'. However, as the war in 2008
between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway territory of South
Ossetia showed, ice can melt quickly, an article `Conflict on Ice'
published in The Economist British weekly said.
`In Soviet times Nagorno-Karabakh was a mostly Armenian-populated
autonomous territory inside Azerbaijan, some 4,000 square kilometres
(1,540 square miles) big. Conflict erupted in 1988 as the territory's
Armenians sought to secede from Azerbaijan. By the time the war ended
in 1994, the victorious Armenians had doubled the territory's size and
carved out a land corridor to Armenia proper. Between 1988 and 1994
more than 1m Armenians and Azeris fled from both countries and
Nagorno-Karabakh. Azeri-populated towns in the region were left
devastated.
Outsiders have worked on peace plans since 1995 but none has stuck.
Yet the outline of a deal seems clear. Nagorno-Karabakh, which
declared independence in 1991, will return to Azerbaijan much of the
land it won in the war. Then, after an `interim' period, the people of
the territory, including Azeri refugees living outside, will vote on
its final status.
Officials in Nagorno-Karabakh say there can be no deal without their
agreement. This is not bravado. The president of Armenia and his
predecessor are from the region. Ara Haratyunyan, Nagorno-Karabakh's
prime minister, says he doubts Azerbaijan will ever accept his
territory's independence. Still, he cheerfully points out, GDP has
doubled in the past four years (largely thanks to transfers from
Armenia and the diaspora).
In contrast to the war years, Azerbaijan is flush with cash from oil
and gas. This year 16.5% of its budget has been set aside for military
spending: this is roughly equivalent to the entire budgets of Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh combined. Yet officials in Stepanakert,
Nagorno-Karabakh's capital, seem relaxed. Russia is committed to
Armenia's defence. And a strategic pipeline pumping oil to the West
from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan passes just 12 miles from
Nagorno-Karabakh-controlled territory. Shelling could quickly cripple
it,' the article concludes.
November 12, 2011 - 15:37 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - Nagorno-Karabakh is often described as one of
several post-Soviet `frozen conflicts'. However, as the war in 2008
between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway territory of South
Ossetia showed, ice can melt quickly, an article `Conflict on Ice'
published in The Economist British weekly said.
`In Soviet times Nagorno-Karabakh was a mostly Armenian-populated
autonomous territory inside Azerbaijan, some 4,000 square kilometres
(1,540 square miles) big. Conflict erupted in 1988 as the territory's
Armenians sought to secede from Azerbaijan. By the time the war ended
in 1994, the victorious Armenians had doubled the territory's size and
carved out a land corridor to Armenia proper. Between 1988 and 1994
more than 1m Armenians and Azeris fled from both countries and
Nagorno-Karabakh. Azeri-populated towns in the region were left
devastated.
Outsiders have worked on peace plans since 1995 but none has stuck.
Yet the outline of a deal seems clear. Nagorno-Karabakh, which
declared independence in 1991, will return to Azerbaijan much of the
land it won in the war. Then, after an `interim' period, the people of
the territory, including Azeri refugees living outside, will vote on
its final status.
Officials in Nagorno-Karabakh say there can be no deal without their
agreement. This is not bravado. The president of Armenia and his
predecessor are from the region. Ara Haratyunyan, Nagorno-Karabakh's
prime minister, says he doubts Azerbaijan will ever accept his
territory's independence. Still, he cheerfully points out, GDP has
doubled in the past four years (largely thanks to transfers from
Armenia and the diaspora).
In contrast to the war years, Azerbaijan is flush with cash from oil
and gas. This year 16.5% of its budget has been set aside for military
spending: this is roughly equivalent to the entire budgets of Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh combined. Yet officials in Stepanakert,
Nagorno-Karabakh's capital, seem relaxed. Russia is committed to
Armenia's defence. And a strategic pipeline pumping oil to the West
from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan passes just 12 miles from
Nagorno-Karabakh-controlled territory. Shelling could quickly cripple
it,' the article concludes.