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ARMENIA CANNOT AFFORD HAVING WEAK ECONOMY AND SOCIALLY UNFAIR SOCIETY
by David Stepanyan
Arminfo
Thursday, November 10, 18:01
ArmInfo's interview with Hrachya Arzumanyan, military and national
security expert, Candidate of Technical Sciences
The recent military parades in Baku and Yerevan once again showed
that Armenia has been involved in the arms race initiated by Baku.
What can it lead to given the fact that both the countries are
reluctant to increase their military budgets at the expense of
socio-economic development of their countries?
When considering the problems of security and war, one should keep
in mind that Armenia is two states - the Republic of Armenia and the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic - and, in some aspects, also the Diaspora.
Arms race is always a blow on the social-economic sector.
But does Armenia have another choice? I think no. We have no
alternative: it was not we who started the race but we are forced to
react to it despite all negative consequences. Our people are wise
enough to understand that we need arms race and to put up with the
price we are forced to pay for our independent future. I do not think
that arms race and military spending are very painful problems for
the Armenian society. We have much bigger threats coming from outside.
Arms race is part of Azerbaijan's militarist policy. The Azeris'
aspiration to start a new war or to force Armenia to give up by scaring
it with high military spending is making Armenia increasingly less
secure. Given no international guarantees and security systems in the
region, Armenia can rely on its own self only and is forced also to
engage in arms race in order to restore the balance. As a result,
arms race is becoming an increasingly autonomous process with own
logic and may one day go out of control and lead to a new war in the
region. This is the most dangerous aspect of this process.
Please, answer the question of principle: are the key threats to the
national security of Armenia outside or inside the country?
In terms of security we must put up with the fact that in the
next decades we will constantly face the threat of anti- Armenian
intentions and actions on the part of Turkey and Azerbaijan. We will
hardly be able to change their attitudes and policies in the mid-
or long-term future. This a threat that will exist always and we
must keep it in mind when building our security system. Unlike the
external threats the internal ones can be controlled and changed. The
current economic stagnation and unfavorable social and psychological
situation in Armenia cannot but have a negative impact on the country's
security. We have had few opportunities to ensure our security in
the past and now that we have some we must not miss them. We cannot
afford having weak economy and socially unfair society.
What are the most vulnerable points of the collective security system
of the South Caucasus? Do you think that there is such system?
The current system of collective security of the South Caucasus
certainly exists. Otherwise the region would be in the state of
permanent wars and conflicts. The vulnerability of the South Caucasus
is mostly connected with the artificiality of borders of the given
region as a result of the collapse of the USSR. The South Caucasus is
part of the Caucasus and Black- Caspian region, which is currently in
the focus of geopolitical confrontation of Russia and the West. The
South Caucasus is also part of the Greater Middle East being affected
by "the Arab spring". Armenia and the other states of the South
Caucasus, which were accustomed to look inside themselves and at each
other, may find themselves in a situation, in which they may have to
respond to foreign threats. As a result, the South Caucasus may just as
well face much more serious threats than those it came across before.
Does Armenia fit in the security environment of the 21st century? Do
the country's leadership study long-term trends and perspectives?
Armenia cannot confidently enter security environment of the 21st
century, as Armenian statehood is too young. At the same time,
the army - the key element of national security system of Armenia,
is a great achievement of the people of Armenia. However, further
development and enhancing of the national security demands meticulous
and long-lasting work, connected with training of personnel, getting
experience, etc. To be able to take the long-lasting trends into
consideration, one should have the relevant personnel, potential -
the school which cannot be established for several years or decades.
Unfortunately, today national security system of Armenia is strongly
linked with personal factor, when much depends on the fact who enters
top military and political leadership of Armenia...Such is the reality
and it is impossible to change it by the "revolutionary" methods".
Such a system is extremely vulnerable, if it is headed by weak and
inexperienced leaders, which do not strictly imagine what the Armenian
society is today. In such conditions we need purposeful steps which
would allow Armenia to build in future such a national security
system that will less depend on the persons. There are few countries
in the world that are able to settle such problems. As for Armenia,
we simply have no other way out. We don't have natural allies, which
have relevant experience and are ready to share it. To have the right
for the future, we should independently create and develop the national
security system of Armenia, its theoretical and practical elements.
In one of your items you mention the necessity to put up with opinion
of strategists saying that the South Caucasus was and is the region
for which the thesis that any complicated problem has a simple,
clear and wrong solution is relevant...
The given statement is based on the understanding that the South
Caucasus is a complicated region on the crossroad of the East and
the West, the North and the South.
Under such conditions, I think that there can be no simple solutions
unless the superpowers' resources are behind them, like it was in early
XX century, when the USSR was created. Are such "simple" solutions
and direct involvement of a certain geopolitical force in the region
possible in early XXI century? Today such a scenario seems incredible,
however, the recent historical experience should have taught us that
sometimes it is the incredible scenarios that come true.
The Armenian-Turkish protocols could not but lead the Armenian-Turkish
process to a deadlock given Ankara's statements linking the
normalization with the Karabakh conflict. Is it possible to make
any forecasts regarding the Armenian-Turkish process considering the
historical, political and military realities of the region?
It is very much difficult...What does Armenia want in the 21-st
century? What are its goals, the national interests and tasks? In the
conditions of the calm 2000-2008, we could let ourselves not to form
and answer such questions, but at the present conditions of the coming
storm, we need to strictly understand the directions which we should
develop to. I am sure that in this context it is not so much important
what Turkey and other countries think and suppose, than what Armenia
and its people want to gain. I am sure that just these issues are the
most crucial ones. And the attempts to avoid them may result in the
situation when the world processes will overturn Armenian statehood.
by David Stepanyan
Arminfo
Thursday, November 10, 18:01
ArmInfo's interview with Hrachya Arzumanyan, military and national
security expert, Candidate of Technical Sciences
The recent military parades in Baku and Yerevan once again showed
that Armenia has been involved in the arms race initiated by Baku.
What can it lead to given the fact that both the countries are
reluctant to increase their military budgets at the expense of
socio-economic development of their countries?
When considering the problems of security and war, one should keep
in mind that Armenia is two states - the Republic of Armenia and the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic - and, in some aspects, also the Diaspora.
Arms race is always a blow on the social-economic sector.
But does Armenia have another choice? I think no. We have no
alternative: it was not we who started the race but we are forced to
react to it despite all negative consequences. Our people are wise
enough to understand that we need arms race and to put up with the
price we are forced to pay for our independent future. I do not think
that arms race and military spending are very painful problems for
the Armenian society. We have much bigger threats coming from outside.
Arms race is part of Azerbaijan's militarist policy. The Azeris'
aspiration to start a new war or to force Armenia to give up by scaring
it with high military spending is making Armenia increasingly less
secure. Given no international guarantees and security systems in the
region, Armenia can rely on its own self only and is forced also to
engage in arms race in order to restore the balance. As a result,
arms race is becoming an increasingly autonomous process with own
logic and may one day go out of control and lead to a new war in the
region. This is the most dangerous aspect of this process.
Please, answer the question of principle: are the key threats to the
national security of Armenia outside or inside the country?
In terms of security we must put up with the fact that in the
next decades we will constantly face the threat of anti- Armenian
intentions and actions on the part of Turkey and Azerbaijan. We will
hardly be able to change their attitudes and policies in the mid-
or long-term future. This a threat that will exist always and we
must keep it in mind when building our security system. Unlike the
external threats the internal ones can be controlled and changed. The
current economic stagnation and unfavorable social and psychological
situation in Armenia cannot but have a negative impact on the country's
security. We have had few opportunities to ensure our security in
the past and now that we have some we must not miss them. We cannot
afford having weak economy and socially unfair society.
What are the most vulnerable points of the collective security system
of the South Caucasus? Do you think that there is such system?
The current system of collective security of the South Caucasus
certainly exists. Otherwise the region would be in the state of
permanent wars and conflicts. The vulnerability of the South Caucasus
is mostly connected with the artificiality of borders of the given
region as a result of the collapse of the USSR. The South Caucasus is
part of the Caucasus and Black- Caspian region, which is currently in
the focus of geopolitical confrontation of Russia and the West. The
South Caucasus is also part of the Greater Middle East being affected
by "the Arab spring". Armenia and the other states of the South
Caucasus, which were accustomed to look inside themselves and at each
other, may find themselves in a situation, in which they may have to
respond to foreign threats. As a result, the South Caucasus may just as
well face much more serious threats than those it came across before.
Does Armenia fit in the security environment of the 21st century? Do
the country's leadership study long-term trends and perspectives?
Armenia cannot confidently enter security environment of the 21st
century, as Armenian statehood is too young. At the same time,
the army - the key element of national security system of Armenia,
is a great achievement of the people of Armenia. However, further
development and enhancing of the national security demands meticulous
and long-lasting work, connected with training of personnel, getting
experience, etc. To be able to take the long-lasting trends into
consideration, one should have the relevant personnel, potential -
the school which cannot be established for several years or decades.
Unfortunately, today national security system of Armenia is strongly
linked with personal factor, when much depends on the fact who enters
top military and political leadership of Armenia...Such is the reality
and it is impossible to change it by the "revolutionary" methods".
Such a system is extremely vulnerable, if it is headed by weak and
inexperienced leaders, which do not strictly imagine what the Armenian
society is today. In such conditions we need purposeful steps which
would allow Armenia to build in future such a national security
system that will less depend on the persons. There are few countries
in the world that are able to settle such problems. As for Armenia,
we simply have no other way out. We don't have natural allies, which
have relevant experience and are ready to share it. To have the right
for the future, we should independently create and develop the national
security system of Armenia, its theoretical and practical elements.
In one of your items you mention the necessity to put up with opinion
of strategists saying that the South Caucasus was and is the region
for which the thesis that any complicated problem has a simple,
clear and wrong solution is relevant...
The given statement is based on the understanding that the South
Caucasus is a complicated region on the crossroad of the East and
the West, the North and the South.
Under such conditions, I think that there can be no simple solutions
unless the superpowers' resources are behind them, like it was in early
XX century, when the USSR was created. Are such "simple" solutions
and direct involvement of a certain geopolitical force in the region
possible in early XXI century? Today such a scenario seems incredible,
however, the recent historical experience should have taught us that
sometimes it is the incredible scenarios that come true.
The Armenian-Turkish protocols could not but lead the Armenian-Turkish
process to a deadlock given Ankara's statements linking the
normalization with the Karabakh conflict. Is it possible to make
any forecasts regarding the Armenian-Turkish process considering the
historical, political and military realities of the region?
It is very much difficult...What does Armenia want in the 21-st
century? What are its goals, the national interests and tasks? In the
conditions of the calm 2000-2008, we could let ourselves not to form
and answer such questions, but at the present conditions of the coming
storm, we need to strictly understand the directions which we should
develop to. I am sure that in this context it is not so much important
what Turkey and other countries think and suppose, than what Armenia
and its people want to gain. I am sure that just these issues are the
most crucial ones. And the attempts to avoid them may result in the
situation when the world processes will overturn Armenian statehood.