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NKR STATUS STALL: DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING NEW FOR AT LEAST TWO YEARS
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
17.11.11 | 15:13
UN Photo/Evan Schneider
One of the most discussed issues today is that Azerbaijan might use
its new status as the UN Security Council's non-permanent member as
a lever of pressure against Armenia in the Karabakh issue.
On November 15, MP Gagik Melikyan, member of the ruling Republican
Party of Armenia, stated that Azerbaijan's status in the UN would
not lead to any serious changes in the Karabakh conflict settlement
and Azerbaijan can hardly ever have that issue put on the UN Security
Council's agenda.
He grounded his optimism by the fact that "three of five permanent
members of the council are OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and see the
settlement of that issue within that very structure [OSCE MG]".
As a reminder it should be noted that on October 24 the five
non-permanent members of the UN SC were elected, and Azerbaijan will
hold that position in 2012-2013.
In Azerbaijan this event is presented as the most important diplomatic
achievement. Azeri president Ilham Aliyev stated during a government
session: "The Azeri society might not know this, but during the
preliminary stage Armenia, too, filed its candidacy along with us.
However, several months ago they, most probably, considered carefully
and realized that they could not compete against Azerbaijan in the
diplomatic arena, so very quietly and silently they withdrew."
Political analysts are speculating on a different version of what
happened, which is that Armenia withdrew its candidacy following an
agreement with OSCE MG co-chairing countries.
Where does this version come from?
Based on the fact that 2012-2013 will see elections (both parliamentary
and presidential) not only in OSCE MG member countries but also in
Armenia and Azerbaijan, apparently none of the sides is ready for any
radical change. In that view Azerbaijan's status as a non-permanent
member is acceptable and, many analysts share this opinion, agreed
with Russia and the USA.
To prove this point - Armenia's strategic partner Russia voted for
Azerbaijan's membership. Russian Foreign Ministry representative
Alexander Lukashevich stated that "Russia welcomes Azerbaijan's
becoming UN Security Council member" and stressed that this membership
"shows also Russia's efforts in that direction".
The Russian diplomat's statement generated a great number of
comments, which mainly come down to an assumption that Russia and the
United States had indeed made a deal with Azerbaijan to support its
candidacy but only if Baku gave up its widely-publicized intention of
transferring the Karabakh conflict settlement to a different variant
than the OSCE MG format.
If true, then it explains why Armenia withdrew its candidacy.
On the other hand, such relaxation of the tension might be favorable
not only for OSCE MG co-chairing countries and Armenia, but also
Azerbaijan, especially during the election year.
Hence, if Azerbaijan's status as UN SC non-permanent member for
2012-2013 was reconciled with the chief players of OSCE MG, no radical
changes should be expected in the Karabakh conflict settlement during
the next two years.
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
17.11.11 | 15:13
UN Photo/Evan Schneider
One of the most discussed issues today is that Azerbaijan might use
its new status as the UN Security Council's non-permanent member as
a lever of pressure against Armenia in the Karabakh issue.
On November 15, MP Gagik Melikyan, member of the ruling Republican
Party of Armenia, stated that Azerbaijan's status in the UN would
not lead to any serious changes in the Karabakh conflict settlement
and Azerbaijan can hardly ever have that issue put on the UN Security
Council's agenda.
He grounded his optimism by the fact that "three of five permanent
members of the council are OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and see the
settlement of that issue within that very structure [OSCE MG]".
As a reminder it should be noted that on October 24 the five
non-permanent members of the UN SC were elected, and Azerbaijan will
hold that position in 2012-2013.
In Azerbaijan this event is presented as the most important diplomatic
achievement. Azeri president Ilham Aliyev stated during a government
session: "The Azeri society might not know this, but during the
preliminary stage Armenia, too, filed its candidacy along with us.
However, several months ago they, most probably, considered carefully
and realized that they could not compete against Azerbaijan in the
diplomatic arena, so very quietly and silently they withdrew."
Political analysts are speculating on a different version of what
happened, which is that Armenia withdrew its candidacy following an
agreement with OSCE MG co-chairing countries.
Where does this version come from?
Based on the fact that 2012-2013 will see elections (both parliamentary
and presidential) not only in OSCE MG member countries but also in
Armenia and Azerbaijan, apparently none of the sides is ready for any
radical change. In that view Azerbaijan's status as a non-permanent
member is acceptable and, many analysts share this opinion, agreed
with Russia and the USA.
To prove this point - Armenia's strategic partner Russia voted for
Azerbaijan's membership. Russian Foreign Ministry representative
Alexander Lukashevich stated that "Russia welcomes Azerbaijan's
becoming UN Security Council member" and stressed that this membership
"shows also Russia's efforts in that direction".
The Russian diplomat's statement generated a great number of
comments, which mainly come down to an assumption that Russia and the
United States had indeed made a deal with Azerbaijan to support its
candidacy but only if Baku gave up its widely-publicized intention of
transferring the Karabakh conflict settlement to a different variant
than the OSCE MG format.
If true, then it explains why Armenia withdrew its candidacy.
On the other hand, such relaxation of the tension might be favorable
not only for OSCE MG co-chairing countries and Armenia, but also
Azerbaijan, especially during the election year.
Hence, if Azerbaijan's status as UN SC non-permanent member for
2012-2013 was reconciled with the chief players of OSCE MG, no radical
changes should be expected in the Karabakh conflict settlement during
the next two years.