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VADIM MUKHANOV: POSSIBLE UNILATERAL PRESSURE ON THE ARMENIAN PARTY TO KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS FOR THE CONFLICT RESOLUTION BORDERS ON FANTASY
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Friday, November 25, 10:48
Interview of Vadim Mukhanov, Senior Fellow at the Center for Caucasian
Studies and Regional Security, MGIMO Russia, with ArmInfo News Agency
Possible changes in Moscow's stance on the Karabakh peace process
following the Medvedev-Putin rotation is much spoken of today. Would
you share your thoughts on this?
I do not expect any special breakthroughs in the Karabakh conflict's
resolution especially on the threshold of the upcoming elections in
Armenia, Azerbaijan and in the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair-states. I am
more than sure that Russia's policy towards the South Caucasus will
not change traditionally and no fundamental changes should be expected
in this context following the rotation of the top leadership in Russia.
Do you think this policy is clearly observed?
There is no strict Russian policy towards the South Caucasus,
since there are certain moments that make the country think over
their settlement. Unlike the USA and France, that face the Caucasus'
problems not so often, Russia faces the problems of both the North
Caucasus that are dominating for the Russians and the South Caucasus.
There is nothing extraordinary in all that, since Russia is a priory
connected to the region more than the West.
Is the forecasted lack of breakthroughs in the Karabakh conflict for
the near future positive or negative for both parties?
The lack of breakthroughs in the Karabakh conflict forecasted for the
near future is positive for both parties, as always when there is no
war. Maintenance of no-war situation in Karabakh is a great positive
factor, especially amid the growing trigger-happy policy despite
the frequent meetings of the presidents. This is in discord with the
continuing suggestions in favor of the conflict's resolution, indeed,
with the meetings in Yerevan and Baku leading to rather sad thoughts.
In this light, even lack of breakthroughs is evidently positive. The
credit of the status-quo maintenance in the Karabakh conflict zone
goes also to Russia, the USA and France. Nicolas Sarkozy's visits to
the conflicting parties are the best evidence of my words.
What major threats to the regional security of the South Caucasus do
you observe today?
First of all, it is the threat of resumption of the frozen conflicts.
Some top officials in the region regularly voice that threat, which
cannot but arouse concern of the OSCE MG co-chair-states. Energy
security resulting from the Karabakh conflict is also a relevant
issue, especially for the EU and the USA. These countries are very
interested in provision of energy security. There is also the problem
of international terrorism, which is acute in the North Caucasus, and
the North Caucasus and South Caucasus are two communicating vessels.
In that case, the problems of Russia in the North Caucasus may extend
over the South Caucasus and grow into rather a serious problem.
You have not mentioned the Iranian nuclear problem in the light of
the latest IAEA report...
Iran's problem is a serious threat to the regional security of
the South Caucasus especially considering that it is the neighbor
of Armenia and Azerbaijan. No one of the experts can rule out the
possibility that a war against Iran may provoke resumption of the
Karabakh conflict. But such probability is not 100%.
Are any breakthroughs possible in the Armenian-Turkish process with
the change of the geopolitical situation in the region?
I would not say that the Armenian-Turkish relations are boarded-up
like a forsaken house. There is probability of certain breakthroughs
in the process but not within the coming months, I think. Sooner or
later, this issue will be put on agenda again after expected changes
in the region. Any problem in the region, and the Iranian one first
of all, will inevitably lead to activation of Turkey's policy in the
South Caucasus.
They in Baku constantly hope for more external pressure on Armenia
and the NKR to get back "the occupied territories". Have the OSCE MG
co-chairs such opportunity and desire to do that?
The OSCE Minsk Group is willing to resolve the Karabakh conflict,
of course, but Russia, France and the USA will hardly resort to
pressure on the Armenian party to achieve resolution. It seems to me
that such scheme would have been fulfilled long ago if it had chances
for realization. In the current conditions, that scheme is bordering
on fantasy and is subject to serious risks.
All the plans to resolve the conflict, in particular, the Madrid
Principles, provide for yield of several regions of the security
zone of the NKR to Azerbaijan by Armenia. If this happens, won't it
increase the risk of resumption of the conflict given the vulnerability
of the Karabakh people after the "gift" presented to Azerbaijan?
The issue of the territories is extremely complicated, especially
given the discrepancies in the Armenian establishment regarding
resolution of the conflict via transfer of some territories. Many
in Armenia are categorically against transferring any territory
to Azerbaijan. Transfer of any territory will tangibly affect the
security of the Karabakh people. In addition, in conditions when
the conflicting parties lack mutual confidence, the guaranteed
stage-by-stage settlement of the conflict is not real either. This
makes the work of the Minsk Group even harder. At the same time, one
should not expect assistance in resolution of the conflict from other
actors in the region, including Turkey. The centuries-old experience
of relations of Turkey and the conflicting parties, first of all
Armenia, is not the best reason to involve Ankara into the Karabakh
peace process. The role of a moderator in this conflict simply does
not suit Turkey.
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Friday, November 25, 10:48
Interview of Vadim Mukhanov, Senior Fellow at the Center for Caucasian
Studies and Regional Security, MGIMO Russia, with ArmInfo News Agency
Possible changes in Moscow's stance on the Karabakh peace process
following the Medvedev-Putin rotation is much spoken of today. Would
you share your thoughts on this?
I do not expect any special breakthroughs in the Karabakh conflict's
resolution especially on the threshold of the upcoming elections in
Armenia, Azerbaijan and in the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair-states. I am
more than sure that Russia's policy towards the South Caucasus will
not change traditionally and no fundamental changes should be expected
in this context following the rotation of the top leadership in Russia.
Do you think this policy is clearly observed?
There is no strict Russian policy towards the South Caucasus,
since there are certain moments that make the country think over
their settlement. Unlike the USA and France, that face the Caucasus'
problems not so often, Russia faces the problems of both the North
Caucasus that are dominating for the Russians and the South Caucasus.
There is nothing extraordinary in all that, since Russia is a priory
connected to the region more than the West.
Is the forecasted lack of breakthroughs in the Karabakh conflict for
the near future positive or negative for both parties?
The lack of breakthroughs in the Karabakh conflict forecasted for the
near future is positive for both parties, as always when there is no
war. Maintenance of no-war situation in Karabakh is a great positive
factor, especially amid the growing trigger-happy policy despite
the frequent meetings of the presidents. This is in discord with the
continuing suggestions in favor of the conflict's resolution, indeed,
with the meetings in Yerevan and Baku leading to rather sad thoughts.
In this light, even lack of breakthroughs is evidently positive. The
credit of the status-quo maintenance in the Karabakh conflict zone
goes also to Russia, the USA and France. Nicolas Sarkozy's visits to
the conflicting parties are the best evidence of my words.
What major threats to the regional security of the South Caucasus do
you observe today?
First of all, it is the threat of resumption of the frozen conflicts.
Some top officials in the region regularly voice that threat, which
cannot but arouse concern of the OSCE MG co-chair-states. Energy
security resulting from the Karabakh conflict is also a relevant
issue, especially for the EU and the USA. These countries are very
interested in provision of energy security. There is also the problem
of international terrorism, which is acute in the North Caucasus, and
the North Caucasus and South Caucasus are two communicating vessels.
In that case, the problems of Russia in the North Caucasus may extend
over the South Caucasus and grow into rather a serious problem.
You have not mentioned the Iranian nuclear problem in the light of
the latest IAEA report...
Iran's problem is a serious threat to the regional security of
the South Caucasus especially considering that it is the neighbor
of Armenia and Azerbaijan. No one of the experts can rule out the
possibility that a war against Iran may provoke resumption of the
Karabakh conflict. But such probability is not 100%.
Are any breakthroughs possible in the Armenian-Turkish process with
the change of the geopolitical situation in the region?
I would not say that the Armenian-Turkish relations are boarded-up
like a forsaken house. There is probability of certain breakthroughs
in the process but not within the coming months, I think. Sooner or
later, this issue will be put on agenda again after expected changes
in the region. Any problem in the region, and the Iranian one first
of all, will inevitably lead to activation of Turkey's policy in the
South Caucasus.
They in Baku constantly hope for more external pressure on Armenia
and the NKR to get back "the occupied territories". Have the OSCE MG
co-chairs such opportunity and desire to do that?
The OSCE Minsk Group is willing to resolve the Karabakh conflict,
of course, but Russia, France and the USA will hardly resort to
pressure on the Armenian party to achieve resolution. It seems to me
that such scheme would have been fulfilled long ago if it had chances
for realization. In the current conditions, that scheme is bordering
on fantasy and is subject to serious risks.
All the plans to resolve the conflict, in particular, the Madrid
Principles, provide for yield of several regions of the security
zone of the NKR to Azerbaijan by Armenia. If this happens, won't it
increase the risk of resumption of the conflict given the vulnerability
of the Karabakh people after the "gift" presented to Azerbaijan?
The issue of the territories is extremely complicated, especially
given the discrepancies in the Armenian establishment regarding
resolution of the conflict via transfer of some territories. Many
in Armenia are categorically against transferring any territory
to Azerbaijan. Transfer of any territory will tangibly affect the
security of the Karabakh people. In addition, in conditions when
the conflicting parties lack mutual confidence, the guaranteed
stage-by-stage settlement of the conflict is not real either. This
makes the work of the Minsk Group even harder. At the same time, one
should not expect assistance in resolution of the conflict from other
actors in the region, including Turkey. The centuries-old experience
of relations of Turkey and the conflicting parties, first of all
Armenia, is not the best reason to involve Ankara into the Karabakh
peace process. The role of a moderator in this conflict simply does
not suit Turkey.