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RUBEN SAFRASTYAN: "ARAB COUNTRIES HAVE TO USE TURKISH HELP"
Vestnik Kavkaza
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/20293.html
Nov 25 2011
Russia
The head of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Armenian
Academy of Sciences, professor Ruben Safrastyan, told VK his views
on recent geopolitical changes in the Middle East, their reasons
and consequences.
- How can the developments in the Middle East and possible Islamization
of the countries covered by the Arab revolutions influence Armenia,
which is situated in the unstable region?
- It is true that Armenia is a part of the region. However, our country
has different political and cultural traditions; at the same time,
it is involved in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Considering this fact, the developments in Arab countries won't touch
Armenia. On the other hand, because of the recent revolutions, the
position of the Armenian Diaspora has worsened in these countries. The
new authorities of Egypt don't prevent Muslims from attacking Egyptian
Copts. The ruling regime of Bashar Assad provided Armenians with
favorable living conditions in Syria. And now it is difficult to say
what will happen after the overthrow of the regime.
- Do you think the tension in Turkish-Israeli relations indicates
that Ankara decided to sacrifice relations with Tel-Aviv in favor of
neo-Ottoman aspirations?
- Today we are witnessing the collapse of the Israeli-Turkish strategic
union, which was established and motivated by the USA.
Israeli politicians are using the fact of the Armenian genocide as a
response to the hard Turkish position. This could lead to Israeli and
Armenian organizations coming closer together, not only in Turkey,
but also in the US. However, despite the political environment,
every Jew has a stereotype that history saw one fact of genocide
only - the Holocaust. Thus, if a bill on recognition of the Armenian
genocide appears in the Knesset, which is doubtful, Israeli deputies
will consider not only the political side of the issue, but also the
moral and psychological aspects of the Holocaust's unique character.
- Can the Arab Spring lead to the exclusive success of the Islamists?
- There are some signs that all the recent changes will lead to the
Islamists' success. Egypt is the first example of this. The West is
trying to redirect the current situation to an outcome that will be
favorable to its interests. Turkey is active in the region as well.
Ankara is trying to influence developments, especially in Syria. So
a tense political struggle between various political forces is taking
place in the Middle East. There are three types of force: pro-Islamic,
pro-Western and Turkish.
- After the end of the Cold War between the USSR and the USA, Turkey
found itself useless as the NATO outpost in Western Asia. As for Syria,
is Turkey fulfilling a NATO mission or acting on its own?
- On the one hand, Turkey as a NATO member is still playing for the
Western team. On the other hand, present-day Turkey is headed by
Recep Erdogan and has its own objectives in the Middle East, trying
to balance them and NATO interests. But Ankara's interests are the
priority for it. The authorities of Turkey have established close ties
with pro-Islamic forces fighting Assad's regime in Syria. So Turkey
is playing its own role in the region, relying on its own abilities.
Turkey is trying to revive lost structures of the Ottoman Empire,
which included Arab countries and peoples. Turkey is the only country
in the world that is supporting the anti-government protests in Syria.
All these Arab countries, passing through a transition period, have
to use Turkey's help and forget about preferences and dislikes of an
historical nature.
- Do you think Turkey can launch its army into Syria if it gets
sanctions from the West?
- I think it can only be an indirect invasion of the Turkish army to
Syria, and sanctions by NATO are needless. Turkey is warning about
the establishment of a sanitary cordon at the Syrian border, and maybe
this cordon will be moved to Syrian territory. It will be an indirect
occupation. Erdogan threatens Assad with overthrowing the regime,
but Turkey has no intention of doing it by force, it will use the
Syrian opposition.
However, there is a sensible circumstance. Syria owns major stocks of
chemical weapons, which were developed in case Israel attacks Syria
with a nuclear weapon. If the situation in Syria continues to worsen,
the question will arise: what should they do with this chemical weapon
arsenal? I think Turkey can launch its army to prevent radical Islamist
groups from taking the arsenal, thus, Turkish troops will be launched
into Syria only with this aim.
Vestnik Kavkaza
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/20293.html
Nov 25 2011
Russia
The head of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Armenian
Academy of Sciences, professor Ruben Safrastyan, told VK his views
on recent geopolitical changes in the Middle East, their reasons
and consequences.
- How can the developments in the Middle East and possible Islamization
of the countries covered by the Arab revolutions influence Armenia,
which is situated in the unstable region?
- It is true that Armenia is a part of the region. However, our country
has different political and cultural traditions; at the same time,
it is involved in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Considering this fact, the developments in Arab countries won't touch
Armenia. On the other hand, because of the recent revolutions, the
position of the Armenian Diaspora has worsened in these countries. The
new authorities of Egypt don't prevent Muslims from attacking Egyptian
Copts. The ruling regime of Bashar Assad provided Armenians with
favorable living conditions in Syria. And now it is difficult to say
what will happen after the overthrow of the regime.
- Do you think the tension in Turkish-Israeli relations indicates
that Ankara decided to sacrifice relations with Tel-Aviv in favor of
neo-Ottoman aspirations?
- Today we are witnessing the collapse of the Israeli-Turkish strategic
union, which was established and motivated by the USA.
Israeli politicians are using the fact of the Armenian genocide as a
response to the hard Turkish position. This could lead to Israeli and
Armenian organizations coming closer together, not only in Turkey,
but also in the US. However, despite the political environment,
every Jew has a stereotype that history saw one fact of genocide
only - the Holocaust. Thus, if a bill on recognition of the Armenian
genocide appears in the Knesset, which is doubtful, Israeli deputies
will consider not only the political side of the issue, but also the
moral and psychological aspects of the Holocaust's unique character.
- Can the Arab Spring lead to the exclusive success of the Islamists?
- There are some signs that all the recent changes will lead to the
Islamists' success. Egypt is the first example of this. The West is
trying to redirect the current situation to an outcome that will be
favorable to its interests. Turkey is active in the region as well.
Ankara is trying to influence developments, especially in Syria. So
a tense political struggle between various political forces is taking
place in the Middle East. There are three types of force: pro-Islamic,
pro-Western and Turkish.
- After the end of the Cold War between the USSR and the USA, Turkey
found itself useless as the NATO outpost in Western Asia. As for Syria,
is Turkey fulfilling a NATO mission or acting on its own?
- On the one hand, Turkey as a NATO member is still playing for the
Western team. On the other hand, present-day Turkey is headed by
Recep Erdogan and has its own objectives in the Middle East, trying
to balance them and NATO interests. But Ankara's interests are the
priority for it. The authorities of Turkey have established close ties
with pro-Islamic forces fighting Assad's regime in Syria. So Turkey
is playing its own role in the region, relying on its own abilities.
Turkey is trying to revive lost structures of the Ottoman Empire,
which included Arab countries and peoples. Turkey is the only country
in the world that is supporting the anti-government protests in Syria.
All these Arab countries, passing through a transition period, have
to use Turkey's help and forget about preferences and dislikes of an
historical nature.
- Do you think Turkey can launch its army into Syria if it gets
sanctions from the West?
- I think it can only be an indirect invasion of the Turkish army to
Syria, and sanctions by NATO are needless. Turkey is warning about
the establishment of a sanitary cordon at the Syrian border, and maybe
this cordon will be moved to Syrian territory. It will be an indirect
occupation. Erdogan threatens Assad with overthrowing the regime,
but Turkey has no intention of doing it by force, it will use the
Syrian opposition.
However, there is a sensible circumstance. Syria owns major stocks of
chemical weapons, which were developed in case Israel attacks Syria
with a nuclear weapon. If the situation in Syria continues to worsen,
the question will arise: what should they do with this chemical weapon
arsenal? I think Turkey can launch its army to prevent radical Islamist
groups from taking the arsenal, thus, Turkish troops will be launched
into Syria only with this aim.