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President reshuffles government ahead of elections - Stratfor
18:23 - 26.11.11
Republished from EurasiaNet
During the past month, several Armenian government officials either
resigned or were dismissed by Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian,
including high-ranking figures such as Armenian Police Chief Alik
Sarkisian and Yerevan Mayor and Presidential Chief of Staff Karen
Karpetyan. There are also indications in Armenian media that the wave
of dismissals and resignations will continue.
Political reshuffles have occurred in Armenia before, but the timing
of this wave of dismissals and resignations could indicate that
President Sarkisian is engaged in a power struggle with former
Armenian President Robert Kocharian, who still has supporters within
the government. That struggle could play out in Armenia's upcoming
parliamentary elections and eventually affect some areas of Armenia's
foreign policy, though it would not change Armenia's overall strategic
relations with its power patron, Russia.
The political shakeup comes ahead of Armenia's parliamentary
elections, slated for May 2012. Not long before the round of
dismissals and resignations began, Kocharian said in an interview with
Armenian news agency Mediamax that he has not ruled out returning to
Armenia's national political scene. Many of the officials affected by
the shakeup are rumored to have connections to Kocharian, so it is
possible that Sarkisian reshuffled these officials in an attempt to
limit Kocharian's support base within the government before the
elections.
Armenia's parliamentary elections typically serve as a springboard to
presidential elections, and Sarkisian wants to preserve his majority
in parliament. Sarkisian's Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) holds 64
of the parliament's 131 seats and is in a coalition with the
Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), which currently holds 18 seats.
However, the PAP's leader, wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukian, is
believed to be close to Kocharian. If Tsarukian should decide to leave
the coalition with the RPA, Sarkisian will no longer have a majority
in parliament, which would make it easier for Kocharian to return to
the national political scene and vie for power in the next
presidential election.
No matter the outcome of a political contest between Sarkisian and
Kocharian, one aspect of Armenian policy will not change: Yerevan's
relationship with Moscow. An alliance with Russia is a geopolitical
imperative for Armenia, and Moscow has taken steps to ensure Armenia's
dependence on Russia. However, as Armenia's future will be shaped by
the upcoming formation of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union, Armenia's
policy in other areas, including relations with neighbors such as
Turkey, Iran or Azerbaijan - could be affected. Much could change in
the months before Armenia's parliamentary elections, but the
significance of the reshuffles and Kocharian's possible role in
national politics will be important in determining the future of
Armenia's political landscape.
Tert.am
18:23 - 26.11.11
Republished from EurasiaNet
During the past month, several Armenian government officials either
resigned or were dismissed by Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian,
including high-ranking figures such as Armenian Police Chief Alik
Sarkisian and Yerevan Mayor and Presidential Chief of Staff Karen
Karpetyan. There are also indications in Armenian media that the wave
of dismissals and resignations will continue.
Political reshuffles have occurred in Armenia before, but the timing
of this wave of dismissals and resignations could indicate that
President Sarkisian is engaged in a power struggle with former
Armenian President Robert Kocharian, who still has supporters within
the government. That struggle could play out in Armenia's upcoming
parliamentary elections and eventually affect some areas of Armenia's
foreign policy, though it would not change Armenia's overall strategic
relations with its power patron, Russia.
The political shakeup comes ahead of Armenia's parliamentary
elections, slated for May 2012. Not long before the round of
dismissals and resignations began, Kocharian said in an interview with
Armenian news agency Mediamax that he has not ruled out returning to
Armenia's national political scene. Many of the officials affected by
the shakeup are rumored to have connections to Kocharian, so it is
possible that Sarkisian reshuffled these officials in an attempt to
limit Kocharian's support base within the government before the
elections.
Armenia's parliamentary elections typically serve as a springboard to
presidential elections, and Sarkisian wants to preserve his majority
in parliament. Sarkisian's Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) holds 64
of the parliament's 131 seats and is in a coalition with the
Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), which currently holds 18 seats.
However, the PAP's leader, wealthy businessman Gagik Tsarukian, is
believed to be close to Kocharian. If Tsarukian should decide to leave
the coalition with the RPA, Sarkisian will no longer have a majority
in parliament, which would make it easier for Kocharian to return to
the national political scene and vie for power in the next
presidential election.
No matter the outcome of a political contest between Sarkisian and
Kocharian, one aspect of Armenian policy will not change: Yerevan's
relationship with Moscow. An alliance with Russia is a geopolitical
imperative for Armenia, and Moscow has taken steps to ensure Armenia's
dependence on Russia. However, as Armenia's future will be shaped by
the upcoming formation of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union, Armenia's
policy in other areas, including relations with neighbors such as
Turkey, Iran or Azerbaijan - could be affected. Much could change in
the months before Armenia's parliamentary elections, but the
significance of the reshuffles and Kocharian's possible role in
national politics will be important in determining the future of
Armenia's political landscape.
Tert.am