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VARTAN OSKANIAN ON AL JAZEERA
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2011/11/2011112683748936
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXpibuPLJ6s
679.html
On a current note, the fact that Moody's lowered Armenia's outlook
this week and put it on a negative watch, how much do you think that
is a reflection of Armenia's own economy or its exposure to Europe
and Russia?
I think it's the latter. Armenia's economy is exposed to the global
economy. Although we are a small country, if the 2009 recession is
any indication, I think any new slowdown or recession in the global
economy will clearly impact Armenia and since this time it seems
like the origins will be Europe, that impact will be even more
direct on Armenia because the European Union is Armenia's largest
trading partner. Armenia exports metals, cut diamonds to Germany,
Bulgaria and Belgium. The second conduit is Russia, which is the
second largest trading partner for Armenia, the biggest investor in
Armenia and the source of 75 percent of all remittances that come into
Armenia. Armenia exports mostly agricultural products to Russia, raw
and processed. Any global slowdown clearly will affect Russia and will
change these elements and factors and consequently Armenia's economy
will be affected. I think Moody's decision was based on this exposure.
Bearing all of that in mind, is there any way that Armenia can, maybe,
not become more self sufficient but perhaps move away from the types
of things you've talked about - mining, agriculture, natural resources,
or is it always going to be almost 100% dependent on the export market?
The 2009 recession of course brought this issue home. Diversification
finally became the government's priority, not that it was not.
But suddenly the government began to pay more attention because Armenia
was one of the hardest hit economies. Actually we were the second
hardest hit economy in 2009. Our GDP declined 14.5 percent which is
huge for Armenia's economy, so since then we've been questioning
the reasons for this decline, when our neighbors decline was much
less than ours. The answer is among many other things inefficiency in
governance, structural problems, also the issue of diversification. So
along with the traditional industries that we inherited from the
Soviet period such as mining and agriculture, Armenia I believe has
tremendous potential in other areas such as information technology,
we have a well-educated population. Tourism and services, because
the country is beautiful and the people are hospitable and also
putting the emphasis on small and mid-size enterprises, because
Armenians are entrepreneurial. Our neighbors of course have many
other attractions. Georgia is a transit country, has access to the
sea. Azerbaijan has oil and gas. Armenia is a land-locked country,
has no natural resources, it's small in size and population and
territory. So our only attraction for foreign investment, which is very
necessary to develop those areas so we diversify our economy, requires
further democratization of our society, rule of law, broader justice,
so that those will become Armenia's attractions. The government
recognizes that, we've made a lot of headway in those directions,
but I don't think we've done enough.
I wonder if I can ask you about another issue actually which
doesn't necessarily fall under the global slowdown. It may affect
you economically. This is Iran. The more that the West seeks to put
sanctions on Iran, the effect that that has on you as one of Iran's
neighbors and the future of things like the gas pipeline which you're
building between the two countries.
Sanctions on Iran have so far not affected Armenia. If there're
any additional sanctions because of these latest developments with
regard to nuclear arms, clearly those sanctions will come to bite
Armenia. There's no doubt about it. But on the other hand, Armenia
is a member of the international community. And is bound to honor
mandatory sanctions. That's why Armenia's position has always been
that this conflict with Iran be resolved through negotiations so
that we can avoid additional sanctions, and also, clearly, so we
can avoid military actions. That will be extremely detrimental to
the region in its entirety. So Armenia's position is that we need
to have a negotiated settlement because additional sanctions will be
tantamount for Armenia to having a third closed border which Armenia
cannot afford.
[email protected] http://www.civilitasfoundation.org
հեռ.` (+374 10) 500 119 O~FաO~Dս` (+374 10) 500 112
.
This message was sent to [email protected] from:
Civilitas Foundation | 1 Northern Ave. | Suite 30, Yerevan 0010,
Armenia
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http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2011/11/2011112683748936
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXpibuPLJ6s
679.html
On a current note, the fact that Moody's lowered Armenia's outlook
this week and put it on a negative watch, how much do you think that
is a reflection of Armenia's own economy or its exposure to Europe
and Russia?
I think it's the latter. Armenia's economy is exposed to the global
economy. Although we are a small country, if the 2009 recession is
any indication, I think any new slowdown or recession in the global
economy will clearly impact Armenia and since this time it seems
like the origins will be Europe, that impact will be even more
direct on Armenia because the European Union is Armenia's largest
trading partner. Armenia exports metals, cut diamonds to Germany,
Bulgaria and Belgium. The second conduit is Russia, which is the
second largest trading partner for Armenia, the biggest investor in
Armenia and the source of 75 percent of all remittances that come into
Armenia. Armenia exports mostly agricultural products to Russia, raw
and processed. Any global slowdown clearly will affect Russia and will
change these elements and factors and consequently Armenia's economy
will be affected. I think Moody's decision was based on this exposure.
Bearing all of that in mind, is there any way that Armenia can, maybe,
not become more self sufficient but perhaps move away from the types
of things you've talked about - mining, agriculture, natural resources,
or is it always going to be almost 100% dependent on the export market?
The 2009 recession of course brought this issue home. Diversification
finally became the government's priority, not that it was not.
But suddenly the government began to pay more attention because Armenia
was one of the hardest hit economies. Actually we were the second
hardest hit economy in 2009. Our GDP declined 14.5 percent which is
huge for Armenia's economy, so since then we've been questioning
the reasons for this decline, when our neighbors decline was much
less than ours. The answer is among many other things inefficiency in
governance, structural problems, also the issue of diversification. So
along with the traditional industries that we inherited from the
Soviet period such as mining and agriculture, Armenia I believe has
tremendous potential in other areas such as information technology,
we have a well-educated population. Tourism and services, because
the country is beautiful and the people are hospitable and also
putting the emphasis on small and mid-size enterprises, because
Armenians are entrepreneurial. Our neighbors of course have many
other attractions. Georgia is a transit country, has access to the
sea. Azerbaijan has oil and gas. Armenia is a land-locked country,
has no natural resources, it's small in size and population and
territory. So our only attraction for foreign investment, which is very
necessary to develop those areas so we diversify our economy, requires
further democratization of our society, rule of law, broader justice,
so that those will become Armenia's attractions. The government
recognizes that, we've made a lot of headway in those directions,
but I don't think we've done enough.
I wonder if I can ask you about another issue actually which
doesn't necessarily fall under the global slowdown. It may affect
you economically. This is Iran. The more that the West seeks to put
sanctions on Iran, the effect that that has on you as one of Iran's
neighbors and the future of things like the gas pipeline which you're
building between the two countries.
Sanctions on Iran have so far not affected Armenia. If there're
any additional sanctions because of these latest developments with
regard to nuclear arms, clearly those sanctions will come to bite
Armenia. There's no doubt about it. But on the other hand, Armenia
is a member of the international community. And is bound to honor
mandatory sanctions. That's why Armenia's position has always been
that this conflict with Iran be resolved through negotiations so
that we can avoid additional sanctions, and also, clearly, so we
can avoid military actions. That will be extremely detrimental to
the region in its entirety. So Armenia's position is that we need
to have a negotiated settlement because additional sanctions will be
tantamount for Armenia to having a third closed border which Armenia
cannot afford.
[email protected] http://www.civilitasfoundation.org
հեռ.` (+374 10) 500 119 O~FաO~Dս` (+374 10) 500 112
.
This message was sent to [email protected] from:
Civilitas Foundation | 1 Northern Ave. | Suite 30, Yerevan 0010,
Armenia
Email Marketing by iContact - Try It Free!