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  • Why Belarus Sides With Azerbaijan, Not Armenia

    WHY BELARUS SIDES WITH AZERBAIJAN, NOT ARMENIA

    Belarus Digest
    Sept 29 2011

    Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
    (photo: belta.by) At a meeting last week, President Alyaksandr
    Lukashenka did his best to persuade the Armenian foreign minister of
    Belarus' goodwill. But this was hardly convincing - the halcyon days
    of close relations between the two countries are long gone. Now Minsk
    is clearly siding with Azerbaijan, even though the latter is opposing
    Russian policy in South Caucasus.

    The USD 300 million loan given by the Azerbaijani president to
    Lukashenka this summer and visit by Belarusian prime minister in
    July to Baku were just some recent signs of a strong partnership
    between Aliev and Lukashenka. Besides its neighboring nations in
    the post-Soviet area, Belarus maintains very close relations with
    Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. In late 2000s Azerbaijan
    apparently became the single most important customer buying significant
    amount of weapons from Belarus.

    New Friend

    In the words of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs*,
    cooperation with Azerbaijan was only activated "in recent years".

    Until the mid-2000s, political relations were negligible and trade
    developed of its own accord. Lukashenka did not get along with former
    President Heydar Aliyev, a seasoned apparatchik of the Soviet period
    who looked down on Lukashenka as a young maverick.

    Another reason for poor relations in the past was that Minsk tended
    to follow Moscow's foreign policy line. As a result, it developed
    relations with Azerbaijan's nemesis - Armenia. In the aftermath of
    the Cold War, the only Belarusian embassy in the region was based
    in Yerevan. In the late 1990s, Minsk finally decided to establish a
    presence in Baku but the embassy was opened only after a considerable
    delay in 2006.

    However, over the past decade, relations have improved dramatically.

    In Baku, Heydar Aliyev's son Ilham inherited presidential power in
    2003. Already in 2004, the heads of state of Belarus and Azerbaijan
    broke with precedent by conducting mutual visits. This set the stage
    for four top-level visits since 2006.

    At the same time, Belarus deviated from its stringent pro-Russian
    political line. Lukashenka found new friends - among them not only
    Yushchenko of Ukraine and Saakashvili of Georgia, but also Ilham
    Alyev. In this process, the enhanced international stature of
    Azerbaijan played an important role, especially after the country
    launched a new Caspian oil pipeline. Belarus could hope for support
    from Baku as a natural ally against Moscow in the post-Soviet area.

    Azerbaijan had long bolstered Russia's opponents; in the past, it even
    went so far as to establish the GUUAM - an alternative organization to
    pro-Moscow integration initiatives - with Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
    Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Although this organization is now moribund,
    Azerbaijan's attitude toward Moscow remains unchanged.

    A second set of factors are economic. Between 2008 and 2010,
    Belarus-Azerbaijan trade grew from US$ 100 m to US$ 146 m. More
    important than this moderate increase is the fact that Belarus enjoys
    a trade surplus, which helps to counteract its immense foreign trade
    deficit.

    Azerbaijan is also helping Belarus to acquire alternative oil sources.

    Minsk recently began importing oil from Venezuela but direct
    shipments to landlocked Belarus are difficult. Baku thus agreed
    to swap schemes by which Minsk gains access to Azerbaijani oil in
    exchange for Venezuelan oil.

    Belarus Turned against Armenia

    For Azerbaijan, an added incentive to work with Belarus is to garner
    support for military liberation of its territory occupied by Armenia
    and removal of self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabagh Republic. Negotiations
    in the OSCE Minsk group have rendered no results for years now.

    Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani government has used its growing oil
    revenues to perennially increase its military budget. But a stronger
    military will not change the fact that Armenians have Russia behind
    them. Although Russia wants to preserve Azerbaijan as an ally in
    the Caucasus, Azerbaijan is eager to change the status quo balance
    of power. It is only a matter of time before armed conflict breaks
    out again between Azerbaijan and Armenia and it may occur as soon as
    the Azerbaijani government sees less sense in tolerating the current
    situation which helps Armenia to legitimize present reality favorable
    for Yerevan.

    If such a war should ensue, Belarus will probably side with Baku,
    the principal buyer of its weapons. It is notable that no arms deals
    were made prior to 2005 - there is thus an unquestionable link between
    a stronger Azerbaijani military and the initiation of bilateral arms
    deals. By contrast, Armenia bought a small number of weapons from
    Belarus just once, in 2007.

    >>From Cooperation to Alliance

    The development of Belarusian-Azerbaijani alliance is practically
    a fait accompli. Azerbaijan is openly defending the Belarusian
    regime from criticism in the West, as positions of Azerbaijani
    representatives in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and EuroNest have
    demonstrated. Alyev is also willing to help Lukashenka financially -in
    addition to latest 300-million loan, not so long ago, Minsk borrowed
    from Baku to pay Moscow for its outstanding claims.

    For Azerbaijan, the motives for working with Belarus are political and
    economic. The Central Asian state needs all the support it can get
    if it wants to confronting Armenia and Russia, not to speak of its
    tense relations with Iran. It cannot be very hopeful about Western
    support, given the influential Armenian lobby there (especially in
    the US and France). This makes support from former Soviet states all
    the more important. At the same time, the privatization of Belarusian
    industries and development of non-Russian oil supply routes is vital -
    Venezuela is a good example.

    For Belarus, cooperation with Azerbaijan is important as a tool to
    put pressure on Moscow, to obtain financing, and to develop trade. In
    particular, Azerbaijan may allow Belarus to access non-Russian oil and
    gas from the Caspian and Middle Eastern regions (Iran and Northern
    Iraq). The greatest hurdle for such a project would be neither
    technical nor financial - the infrastructure is mostly already in
    place. Rather, it is political: the Russians will stubbornly fight to
    preserve their energy monopoly in Eastern and Central Europe, while
    the United States will work to block any regional energy projects
    that involve Iran.

    SB

    http://belarusdigest.com/story/why-belarus-sides-azerbaijan-not-armenia-5924




    From: A. Papazian
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