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AZERBAIJAN, ARMENIA NOT TO DO WITHOUT RUSSIAN MEDIATION
news.az, Azerbaijan
Sept 30 2011
News.Az interviews Nikolay Baranov, doctor of political science.
How will Vladimir Putin's return to presidency in Russia affect changes
in Russian foreign policy towards the adjacent states, including the
South Caucasus?
In my opinion, Russia's foreign policy will see no cardinal changes.
Vladimir Putin is a stiffer politician and is quite pragmatic when it
comes to the Russian interests. No principal changes will occur, which
is why Georgia will have no hopes for improvement of relations under
Saakashvili's presidency. Relations with Azerbaijan will be smooth,
Russia may offer new proposals on mutual profitable cooperation,
especially in energy sources. Armenia will likely be tied to Russia
more closely in terms of energy supply with possible preferences
for preservation of the military base. Russia will likely attract
other CIS members to the Customs Union, thus expanding the area of
influence via economic mechanisms. A civilized breakup is possible
with the CIS countries with whom no common projects are available.
Is the Kremlin policy in relation to South Caucasus in terms of
provision of their security by Russia justified?
Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was undesirable
but a forced step by Russia. If these republics were not recognized,
Russia would say farewell to the status of a superpower, which the
country's leadership could not accept. Thus, Russia created excessive
problems in the South Caucasus, whose importance is shrinking with
the increase in the economic and military might of the country and on
the contrary is rising with the negative economic indicators. A big
and powerful state is forgiven many things but to this end it must
become big and great. The title of a 'superpower' must by attached
not by Russia but other superpowers. Russia has problems with this
recognition, which means problems in security sphere.
Do the South Caucasus countries, particularly, Azerbaijan have the
opportunity to draw Russia's attention to the resolution of their
strategic problems, if exactly, the territorial dispute? In other
words, is it possible to say that Putin's return to presidency in
Russia will raise the opportunity of settlement of the Karabakh
conflict?
The problem of Nagorno Karabakh cannot be settled by any third
countries, however big they are. This is a problem of the two
countries-Azerbaijan and Armenia. If there is a political will of both
parties, this problem can be settled anyway. The most important is
to have a wish to settle the territorial dispute peacefully and not
in favor of only one state. Politicians should understand it clearly
that to gain something, it is necessary to refuse something. It is
up to these two countries to define this 'something'. There is no
significant difference who will be the president of Russia-Vladimir
Putin or any other politician. South Caucasus is an area of Russian
interests, which is why negotiation process cannot do without its
mediation, if there is really a wish to negotiate.
Nikolay Baranov doctor of political science, deputy chair of
international relations of the Saint Petersburg institute of foreign
economic relations, economy and law.
N.H.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
news.az, Azerbaijan
Sept 30 2011
News.Az interviews Nikolay Baranov, doctor of political science.
How will Vladimir Putin's return to presidency in Russia affect changes
in Russian foreign policy towards the adjacent states, including the
South Caucasus?
In my opinion, Russia's foreign policy will see no cardinal changes.
Vladimir Putin is a stiffer politician and is quite pragmatic when it
comes to the Russian interests. No principal changes will occur, which
is why Georgia will have no hopes for improvement of relations under
Saakashvili's presidency. Relations with Azerbaijan will be smooth,
Russia may offer new proposals on mutual profitable cooperation,
especially in energy sources. Armenia will likely be tied to Russia
more closely in terms of energy supply with possible preferences
for preservation of the military base. Russia will likely attract
other CIS members to the Customs Union, thus expanding the area of
influence via economic mechanisms. A civilized breakup is possible
with the CIS countries with whom no common projects are available.
Is the Kremlin policy in relation to South Caucasus in terms of
provision of their security by Russia justified?
Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was undesirable
but a forced step by Russia. If these republics were not recognized,
Russia would say farewell to the status of a superpower, which the
country's leadership could not accept. Thus, Russia created excessive
problems in the South Caucasus, whose importance is shrinking with
the increase in the economic and military might of the country and on
the contrary is rising with the negative economic indicators. A big
and powerful state is forgiven many things but to this end it must
become big and great. The title of a 'superpower' must by attached
not by Russia but other superpowers. Russia has problems with this
recognition, which means problems in security sphere.
Do the South Caucasus countries, particularly, Azerbaijan have the
opportunity to draw Russia's attention to the resolution of their
strategic problems, if exactly, the territorial dispute? In other
words, is it possible to say that Putin's return to presidency in
Russia will raise the opportunity of settlement of the Karabakh
conflict?
The problem of Nagorno Karabakh cannot be settled by any third
countries, however big they are. This is a problem of the two
countries-Azerbaijan and Armenia. If there is a political will of both
parties, this problem can be settled anyway. The most important is
to have a wish to settle the territorial dispute peacefully and not
in favor of only one state. Politicians should understand it clearly
that to gain something, it is necessary to refuse something. It is
up to these two countries to define this 'something'. There is no
significant difference who will be the president of Russia-Vladimir
Putin or any other politician. South Caucasus is an area of Russian
interests, which is why negotiation process cannot do without its
mediation, if there is really a wish to negotiate.
Nikolay Baranov doctor of political science, deputy chair of
international relations of the Saint Petersburg institute of foreign
economic relations, economy and law.
N.H.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress