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VOTE 2012: RE-ALIGNMENT OF FORCES OUTLINED WELL BEFORE START OF ELECTION CAMPAIGN
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
03.10.11 | 12:37
ANC-led oppositionists started a week-long "civic fest" sit in at
Freedom Square.
While Armenian experts are discussing the possible course of political
developments in the country before the elections, politicians are
predicting a split within the ruling coalition and the creation of new,
seemingly improbable alliances.
The approach of next spring's Parliamentary Elections and the 2013
Presidential Election makes political parties finally navigate and
select camps.
As the radical opposition represented by the Armenian National Congress
(ANC) holds a week-long sit-in Yerevan's central Liberty Square,
calling on people to push for the resignation of government officials,
past-President Robert Kocharyan said late last week he did not exclude
his return to major-league politics. In addition, the fact that the
current president in Russia Dmitry Medvedev nominated his predecessor
Vladimir Putin for presidency has created a potential copy-cat scenario
(though probably without the endorsement of President Serzh Sargsyan).
Most analysts are now contemplating a confrontation between Sargsyan
and Kocharyan. Broad speculation even includes a Sargsyan-Levon
Ter-Petrosyan alliance. It is not beyond belief that Sargsyan
and Ter-Petrosyan would conspire to defeat Kocharyan on a platform
that emphasized Kocharyan's violation of constitutional order in the
events of March 1, 2008 and the deaths of 10 citizens in post-election
violence.
The second variant is again a confrontation between Sargsyan and
Kocharyan, but in which the Ter-Petrosyan-led ANC acts as a separate
force, working against both Sargsyan and Kocharyan, to call for fair
elections. Since elections so far have been rigged with administrative
tools that have been ensured by the Republican Party and its coalition
partners, the dispersal of these levers between the former partners
would be seen to encourage legitimate competition.
And while Ter-Petrosyan insists that Kocharyan lacks a party platform,
according to Deputy Chairman of the ruling Republican Party Razmik
Zohrabyan, the return of ex-President Kocharyan to politics can
make a split within the ruling coalition if Kocharyan's candidacy is
nominated by a coalition party - Prosperous Armenia (believed to be
loyal to the ex-president), or Orinats Yerkir.
But there is also another variant, which is considered least of all --
Sargsyan voluntarily resigns and at the Republican Party's congress,
in analogy with the Putin-Medvedev tandem, Kocharyan is nominated as
the next presidential candidate of the party. Despite the fact that
the Republican Party has already declared that its candidate at the
next presidential election will be its leader Sargsyan, the change
of the configuration in Russia may have its influence in Armenia.
Will the Republican Party members be able and willing to oppose the
nomination of Kocharyan? Probably not, since most of them joined the
party during Kocharyan's presidency.
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
03.10.11 | 12:37
ANC-led oppositionists started a week-long "civic fest" sit in at
Freedom Square.
While Armenian experts are discussing the possible course of political
developments in the country before the elections, politicians are
predicting a split within the ruling coalition and the creation of new,
seemingly improbable alliances.
The approach of next spring's Parliamentary Elections and the 2013
Presidential Election makes political parties finally navigate and
select camps.
As the radical opposition represented by the Armenian National Congress
(ANC) holds a week-long sit-in Yerevan's central Liberty Square,
calling on people to push for the resignation of government officials,
past-President Robert Kocharyan said late last week he did not exclude
his return to major-league politics. In addition, the fact that the
current president in Russia Dmitry Medvedev nominated his predecessor
Vladimir Putin for presidency has created a potential copy-cat scenario
(though probably without the endorsement of President Serzh Sargsyan).
Most analysts are now contemplating a confrontation between Sargsyan
and Kocharyan. Broad speculation even includes a Sargsyan-Levon
Ter-Petrosyan alliance. It is not beyond belief that Sargsyan
and Ter-Petrosyan would conspire to defeat Kocharyan on a platform
that emphasized Kocharyan's violation of constitutional order in the
events of March 1, 2008 and the deaths of 10 citizens in post-election
violence.
The second variant is again a confrontation between Sargsyan and
Kocharyan, but in which the Ter-Petrosyan-led ANC acts as a separate
force, working against both Sargsyan and Kocharyan, to call for fair
elections. Since elections so far have been rigged with administrative
tools that have been ensured by the Republican Party and its coalition
partners, the dispersal of these levers between the former partners
would be seen to encourage legitimate competition.
And while Ter-Petrosyan insists that Kocharyan lacks a party platform,
according to Deputy Chairman of the ruling Republican Party Razmik
Zohrabyan, the return of ex-President Kocharyan to politics can
make a split within the ruling coalition if Kocharyan's candidacy is
nominated by a coalition party - Prosperous Armenia (believed to be
loyal to the ex-president), or Orinats Yerkir.
But there is also another variant, which is considered least of all --
Sargsyan voluntarily resigns and at the Republican Party's congress,
in analogy with the Putin-Medvedev tandem, Kocharyan is nominated as
the next presidential candidate of the party. Despite the fact that
the Republican Party has already declared that its candidate at the
next presidential election will be its leader Sargsyan, the change
of the configuration in Russia may have its influence in Armenia.
Will the Republican Party members be able and willing to oppose the
nomination of Kocharyan? Probably not, since most of them joined the
party during Kocharyan's presidency.