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SUPERVISED PEACE IN TRANSCAUCASIA
by Yury Roks
DEFENSE and SECURITY
October 3, 2011 Monday
Russia
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 29, 2011, p. 6
RUSSIA PROPOSED THE US AND THE EUROPEAN UNION TO PROVIDE FOR
NON-RESTARTING OF WAR IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS TOGETHER; Russia is ready
to become a guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus and would be
grateful if the US and the European Union help it in this mission.
Russia is ready to become a guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus
and would be grateful if the US and the European Union help it in
this mission.
Reaction of the South Caucasian countries to the statement of
the Russian Foreign Minister may serve as an illustration to the
position of Russia in the South Caucasus. This "diversity" probably
explains the call on the West to help Russia to be a guarantor of
peace and stability in the South Caucasus. The phrase "zone of our
responsibility" sounded in the speeches of Russian leaders about this
region in the past.
Speaking at a meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York,
Sergei Lavrov announced, "Russia is firmly going to do its best to
prevent use of the forceful scenario and escalation of violence in
the Caucasus." According to Lavrov, in case of illegal use of force
by any party "Russia is ready to take all necessary measures for
enforcement of peace in the region."
Is it possible to take this statement as a warning about a possibility
of deja vu of August of 2008 if shooting begins in Transcaucasia? It
looks like this. Along with this, Russia once again manifested its
readiness to become a guarantor of the agreements on non-use of force
among Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Lavrov said, "We would
welcome undertaking of similar obligations by the US and EU. In the
role of guarantors we will be ready to take measures for non-restarting
of violence in the region and in case of illegal use of force by any of
the parties we will be ready to achieve the soonest regulation of the
situation on the basis of the existing norms of the international law."
According to Alexei Malashenko, member of the scientific council
of the Moscow Carnegie Center, the statement of Lavrov is caused
by recognition of reality, as well as unwillingness to pose Russia
as an empire against the background of probable return of Vladimir
Putin to the post of the president. Professor Malashenko says,
"If, let us say, the West fails to do anything in the triangle of
Georgia-Abkhazia-South Ossetia, the critique of Russia about the
relevant issues will subside."
Tbilisi responded to the statement of Lavrov about a wish of Russia to
be a guarantor of peace in the region by reminding about the losses
borne by Georgia when it trusted its northern neighbor. Tbilisi
also hinted clearly that it was not going to sign agreements with
its "autonomies" but was ready to consider an option of signing of
an agreement on non-use of force with Russia with participation of
international community in the form of the West.
The EU manifested a bigger interest in the proposal of Lavrov than
Georgia. Press secretary of its supreme representative for foreign
policy Maja Kocijancic told journalists that it "touches on some
aspects of the complicated situation related to the conflict in
Georgia that we need to study in detail."
Lavrov spoke about the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, "We will continue
promotion of additional opportunities for peaceful resolving of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that have appeared as a result of efforts
and with mediation of Russia. We will continue promotion of the
peaceful resolving of the conflict in the framework of the Minsk OSCE
group together with the partners France and US. In the framework of
the group of three co-chairs of the Minsk OSCE group together with
American and French partners we will promote a set of measures of
confidence and strengthening of the ceasefire regime."
Calling a spade a spade, the Foreign Minister of Russia actually said
that the status quo would be optimal in Nagorno-Karabakh: negotiations
under the aegis of the Minsk OSCE group with a small increase of
pressure on this or that party of the conflict with refusals to sign
the proposed documents by one party or the other. This may be somehow
suitable for Yerevan but not for Baku.
Speaking from the same tribute, Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan
Elmar Mamedyarov named the conditions that might contribute to the
progress in the regulation. He did not say anything new mentioning
the requirements that the Armenian party did not accept without
recognition of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh: withdrawal of the
Armenian armed forces, return of refugees, "creation of conditions
for peaceful coexistence of Azerbaijanis and Armenians in the region
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the framework of the territorial
integrity." Mamedyarov said, "Azerbaijan retains its interest,
motivation and patience in a very difficult and sensitive process of
negotiations. We believe that the international community will persuade
the Armenian party. In turn, we are ready to guarantee a high level of
self-government for this region within the Azerbaijani Republic." In
the intonations of the Foreign Minister there were obvious notes of
frustration about the fruitless negotiations that lasted for many
years. His deputy Khalaf Khalafov spoke in a harsher way about this
topic recently during a meeting with a delegation of the parliament
of Argentina in Baku, "Peaceful negotiations do not have results
because of non-readiness of the authorities of Armenia to quit the
occupied territories." There is probably no need to explain that is
the conclusion from such statement in conditions of unacceptability
of loss of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan. From this point of view
the statement about readiness of Russia to be a guarantor of peace
could confuse Baku and could simultaneously have a sedative effect
on the Armenian party.
Yerevan emphasized once again that a compromise implied mutual
concessions and Azerbaijan had only demands and ephemeral promises
"to organize a referendum about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh some
time," "to provide democratic norms and civil liberties to residents
of Nagorno-Karabakh" etc. Naira Zograbian, head of the permanent
commission for matters of European integration of the parliament
of Armenia, said, "It is strange to hear this from leaders of the
country that has frequently been criticized by PACE for regress in
democratic processes. Amendments to the Constitution that abolished
limitation of election of the president to two terms were passed in
Azerbaijan. In a country where lifelong ruling is legalized it is
useless to speak about democracy."
Konstantin Zatulin, director of the institute of the CIS countries and
Duma member, says, "Of course, it is impossible to interpret the words
of Lavrov with 100% assurance. In projection to the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem a joint approach is possible if Russia, US and EU, let us
say, with absence of resistance of Turkey, formulate the terms that
correspond to reality and offer a package agreement to Yerevan and Baku
as the only way of the conflict resolving. My position in this aspect
is well known: to recognize sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic,
to transfer the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh except for the Lachin
District to Azerbaijan and to return refugees." According to Zatulin,
positions of Russia and the West about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
are fairly close. Zatulin adds, "If Lavrov has meant that Russia may
reach an agreement with the West about all South Caucasian issues,
I do not believe in this because we have an absolutely different
vision of the situation in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia."
[translated from Russian]
by Yury Roks
DEFENSE and SECURITY
October 3, 2011 Monday
Russia
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 29, 2011, p. 6
RUSSIA PROPOSED THE US AND THE EUROPEAN UNION TO PROVIDE FOR
NON-RESTARTING OF WAR IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS TOGETHER; Russia is ready
to become a guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus and would be
grateful if the US and the European Union help it in this mission.
Russia is ready to become a guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus
and would be grateful if the US and the European Union help it in
this mission.
Reaction of the South Caucasian countries to the statement of
the Russian Foreign Minister may serve as an illustration to the
position of Russia in the South Caucasus. This "diversity" probably
explains the call on the West to help Russia to be a guarantor of
peace and stability in the South Caucasus. The phrase "zone of our
responsibility" sounded in the speeches of Russian leaders about this
region in the past.
Speaking at a meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York,
Sergei Lavrov announced, "Russia is firmly going to do its best to
prevent use of the forceful scenario and escalation of violence in
the Caucasus." According to Lavrov, in case of illegal use of force
by any party "Russia is ready to take all necessary measures for
enforcement of peace in the region."
Is it possible to take this statement as a warning about a possibility
of deja vu of August of 2008 if shooting begins in Transcaucasia? It
looks like this. Along with this, Russia once again manifested its
readiness to become a guarantor of the agreements on non-use of force
among Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Lavrov said, "We would
welcome undertaking of similar obligations by the US and EU. In the
role of guarantors we will be ready to take measures for non-restarting
of violence in the region and in case of illegal use of force by any of
the parties we will be ready to achieve the soonest regulation of the
situation on the basis of the existing norms of the international law."
According to Alexei Malashenko, member of the scientific council
of the Moscow Carnegie Center, the statement of Lavrov is caused
by recognition of reality, as well as unwillingness to pose Russia
as an empire against the background of probable return of Vladimir
Putin to the post of the president. Professor Malashenko says,
"If, let us say, the West fails to do anything in the triangle of
Georgia-Abkhazia-South Ossetia, the critique of Russia about the
relevant issues will subside."
Tbilisi responded to the statement of Lavrov about a wish of Russia to
be a guarantor of peace in the region by reminding about the losses
borne by Georgia when it trusted its northern neighbor. Tbilisi
also hinted clearly that it was not going to sign agreements with
its "autonomies" but was ready to consider an option of signing of
an agreement on non-use of force with Russia with participation of
international community in the form of the West.
The EU manifested a bigger interest in the proposal of Lavrov than
Georgia. Press secretary of its supreme representative for foreign
policy Maja Kocijancic told journalists that it "touches on some
aspects of the complicated situation related to the conflict in
Georgia that we need to study in detail."
Lavrov spoke about the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, "We will continue
promotion of additional opportunities for peaceful resolving of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that have appeared as a result of efforts
and with mediation of Russia. We will continue promotion of the
peaceful resolving of the conflict in the framework of the Minsk OSCE
group together with the partners France and US. In the framework of
the group of three co-chairs of the Minsk OSCE group together with
American and French partners we will promote a set of measures of
confidence and strengthening of the ceasefire regime."
Calling a spade a spade, the Foreign Minister of Russia actually said
that the status quo would be optimal in Nagorno-Karabakh: negotiations
under the aegis of the Minsk OSCE group with a small increase of
pressure on this or that party of the conflict with refusals to sign
the proposed documents by one party or the other. This may be somehow
suitable for Yerevan but not for Baku.
Speaking from the same tribute, Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan
Elmar Mamedyarov named the conditions that might contribute to the
progress in the regulation. He did not say anything new mentioning
the requirements that the Armenian party did not accept without
recognition of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh: withdrawal of the
Armenian armed forces, return of refugees, "creation of conditions
for peaceful coexistence of Azerbaijanis and Armenians in the region
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the framework of the territorial
integrity." Mamedyarov said, "Azerbaijan retains its interest,
motivation and patience in a very difficult and sensitive process of
negotiations. We believe that the international community will persuade
the Armenian party. In turn, we are ready to guarantee a high level of
self-government for this region within the Azerbaijani Republic." In
the intonations of the Foreign Minister there were obvious notes of
frustration about the fruitless negotiations that lasted for many
years. His deputy Khalaf Khalafov spoke in a harsher way about this
topic recently during a meeting with a delegation of the parliament
of Argentina in Baku, "Peaceful negotiations do not have results
because of non-readiness of the authorities of Armenia to quit the
occupied territories." There is probably no need to explain that is
the conclusion from such statement in conditions of unacceptability
of loss of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan. From this point of view
the statement about readiness of Russia to be a guarantor of peace
could confuse Baku and could simultaneously have a sedative effect
on the Armenian party.
Yerevan emphasized once again that a compromise implied mutual
concessions and Azerbaijan had only demands and ephemeral promises
"to organize a referendum about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh some
time," "to provide democratic norms and civil liberties to residents
of Nagorno-Karabakh" etc. Naira Zograbian, head of the permanent
commission for matters of European integration of the parliament
of Armenia, said, "It is strange to hear this from leaders of the
country that has frequently been criticized by PACE for regress in
democratic processes. Amendments to the Constitution that abolished
limitation of election of the president to two terms were passed in
Azerbaijan. In a country where lifelong ruling is legalized it is
useless to speak about democracy."
Konstantin Zatulin, director of the institute of the CIS countries and
Duma member, says, "Of course, it is impossible to interpret the words
of Lavrov with 100% assurance. In projection to the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem a joint approach is possible if Russia, US and EU, let us
say, with absence of resistance of Turkey, formulate the terms that
correspond to reality and offer a package agreement to Yerevan and Baku
as the only way of the conflict resolving. My position in this aspect
is well known: to recognize sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic,
to transfer the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh except for the Lachin
District to Azerbaijan and to return refugees." According to Zatulin,
positions of Russia and the West about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
are fairly close. Zatulin adds, "If Lavrov has meant that Russia may
reach an agreement with the West about all South Caucasian issues,
I do not believe in this because we have an absolutely different
vision of the situation in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia."
[translated from Russian]