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GABALA VS.KARABAKH: INCORRECT ACTION
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/04/58157804.html
Oct 4, 2011 17:56 Moscow Time
Baku is waiting for Moscow to come up with new proposals for the
settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Otherwise, Azerbaijan
will not extend the lease of the Gabala radar station and join the
NABUCCO project, a diplomatic source that requested anonymity told
newsmen in the Azeri capital Baku. Commenting on the above-mentioned
statement, experts say that such formulation of the issue is at the
minimum incorrect.
Active hostilities around Nagorno-Karabakh, as compared to the other
zones of "pacified conflicts" have been non-existent for several years
now. All this is the result of the joint work of Russia, the USA and
France as part of the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as of Moscow's separate
efforts. Several meetings with the participation of the presidents of
Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Yerevan and Baku searched for
a compromise solution, have already been held on Russia's initiative.
And still, official Baku believes that this is insufficient. The Azeri
side began to express its dissatisfaction last year - especially,
after Russia and Armenia extended the treaty on the lease of the Gyumri
military base for 49 years. A clause saying that Russia's troops will
ensure the security of Armenia at large, not only the security of its
borders is the key term of that treaty. This triggered irritation in
Azerbaijan, and what followed were tough statements towards Yerevan.
Now Baku has decided to link the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue to the lease of the Gabala radar station in the north of
Azerbaijan, which is meant for early warning about possible missile
strikes from the south, and Iran figures as Danger No.1 here. The
treaty on Moscow leasing the radar station that was built in the
Soviet-era times expires next year. The talks on the extension of this
agreement were held by Russia's Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov this
summer. As it became clear, besides an increase in the lease payment,
Baku was pushing for an increase in the price of electricity supplied
to the station. In addition to that, Baku demanded to increase the
number of local civilian specialists working at the station. And still,
a preliminary agreement was reached. Experts say that as of today,
the Gabala radar station is a political step rather than something
else. There's no military need for it because Russia can do without
the Gabala radar station, a Russian military expert, Major-General
Victor Yesin says:
"The non-extension by Azerbaijan of the Gabala radar station, of
course, will disappoint Russia but will not be fatal to it - Russia
has insured itself, that is, it has developed a new Voronezh-type
radar site near Armavir, which is capable of compensating, to a
considerable extent, for the damage in the early warning system.
Azerbaijan alone will not be able to operate the new radar station
unassisted. And as a result, will lose the source of its benefits -
more than 10 million dollars annually."
And as regards Baku's second "threat" - its joining the NABUCCO
gas pipeline project - for the time being, this is a virtual
project. It was drawn up by the European Union as an alternative to
the Russian-European South Stream project, in a bid to diversify gas
supplies to the European countries. Some days ago Nabucco Gas Pipeline
International submitted its proposals for gas transportation to Baku.
EU officials say that the final decision on the gas pipeline is due
to be taken next year.
However, the main problem here is the fact that as soon as the
pipe becomes real, there will be nothing to fill it with. The Azeri
Shakh-Deniz Deposit may become a source for the new gas pipeline.
Specialists say though that the peak of extraction there will reach
16 billion cubic metres of gas annually out of which Azerbaijan
promised to sell 6 billion cubic metres to Turkey for its domestic
needs. Thus, there will remain only 10 billion cubic metres of gas
for the transit to Europe, which will not be enough even to cover
the quotas of the Turkish, Bulgarian, German, and Austrian companies
involved in this project.
Thus, Azerbaijan has chosen unconvincing instruments of pressure
on Russia. And as regards the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue, Baku has given the wrong address because this issue should be
settled through talks between Baku and Yerevan. Today Russia is the
only guarantor of peace in the Caucasus Region and a mediator in the
settlement of this conflict. And as you know, it is no good to put
pressure on mediators.
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/04/58157804.html
Oct 4, 2011 17:56 Moscow Time
Baku is waiting for Moscow to come up with new proposals for the
settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Otherwise, Azerbaijan
will not extend the lease of the Gabala radar station and join the
NABUCCO project, a diplomatic source that requested anonymity told
newsmen in the Azeri capital Baku. Commenting on the above-mentioned
statement, experts say that such formulation of the issue is at the
minimum incorrect.
Active hostilities around Nagorno-Karabakh, as compared to the other
zones of "pacified conflicts" have been non-existent for several years
now. All this is the result of the joint work of Russia, the USA and
France as part of the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as of Moscow's separate
efforts. Several meetings with the participation of the presidents of
Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Yerevan and Baku searched for
a compromise solution, have already been held on Russia's initiative.
And still, official Baku believes that this is insufficient. The Azeri
side began to express its dissatisfaction last year - especially,
after Russia and Armenia extended the treaty on the lease of the Gyumri
military base for 49 years. A clause saying that Russia's troops will
ensure the security of Armenia at large, not only the security of its
borders is the key term of that treaty. This triggered irritation in
Azerbaijan, and what followed were tough statements towards Yerevan.
Now Baku has decided to link the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue to the lease of the Gabala radar station in the north of
Azerbaijan, which is meant for early warning about possible missile
strikes from the south, and Iran figures as Danger No.1 here. The
treaty on Moscow leasing the radar station that was built in the
Soviet-era times expires next year. The talks on the extension of this
agreement were held by Russia's Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov this
summer. As it became clear, besides an increase in the lease payment,
Baku was pushing for an increase in the price of electricity supplied
to the station. In addition to that, Baku demanded to increase the
number of local civilian specialists working at the station. And still,
a preliminary agreement was reached. Experts say that as of today,
the Gabala radar station is a political step rather than something
else. There's no military need for it because Russia can do without
the Gabala radar station, a Russian military expert, Major-General
Victor Yesin says:
"The non-extension by Azerbaijan of the Gabala radar station, of
course, will disappoint Russia but will not be fatal to it - Russia
has insured itself, that is, it has developed a new Voronezh-type
radar site near Armavir, which is capable of compensating, to a
considerable extent, for the damage in the early warning system.
Azerbaijan alone will not be able to operate the new radar station
unassisted. And as a result, will lose the source of its benefits -
more than 10 million dollars annually."
And as regards Baku's second "threat" - its joining the NABUCCO
gas pipeline project - for the time being, this is a virtual
project. It was drawn up by the European Union as an alternative to
the Russian-European South Stream project, in a bid to diversify gas
supplies to the European countries. Some days ago Nabucco Gas Pipeline
International submitted its proposals for gas transportation to Baku.
EU officials say that the final decision on the gas pipeline is due
to be taken next year.
However, the main problem here is the fact that as soon as the
pipe becomes real, there will be nothing to fill it with. The Azeri
Shakh-Deniz Deposit may become a source for the new gas pipeline.
Specialists say though that the peak of extraction there will reach
16 billion cubic metres of gas annually out of which Azerbaijan
promised to sell 6 billion cubic metres to Turkey for its domestic
needs. Thus, there will remain only 10 billion cubic metres of gas
for the transit to Europe, which will not be enough even to cover
the quotas of the Turkish, Bulgarian, German, and Austrian companies
involved in this project.
Thus, Azerbaijan has chosen unconvincing instruments of pressure
on Russia. And as regards the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue, Baku has given the wrong address because this issue should be
settled through talks between Baku and Yerevan. Today Russia is the
only guarantor of peace in the Caucasus Region and a mediator in the
settlement of this conflict. And as you know, it is no good to put
pressure on mediators.