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Thomas De Waal On Armenian Ex-President'S Possible Return

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  • Thomas De Waal On Armenian Ex-President'S Possible Return

    THOMAS DE WAAL ON ARMENIAN EX-PRESIDENT'S POSSIBLE RETURN

    Tert.am
    06.10.11

    Below is an excerpt from an article entitled "Vladimir Putin and the
    South Caucasus" by Thomas de Waal, a senior associate at the Carnegie
    Endowment for International Peace. The article was published by The
    National Interest, a conservative American bi-monthly international
    affairs magazine.

    Russia's neighbors are asking what the heralded return of Vladimir
    Putin to the Kremlin means for their own regions. One such region is
    the South Caucasus.

    Caucasian leaders' calculations will certainly change in the wake of
    the Putin move. In Armenia, news of his return will have gladdened
    Robert Kocharian (Kocharyan), another ex-president who has been lurking
    in the shadows. There are obvious parallels between the two: both men
    gave up the position of president in 2008 after serving two terms and
    handed over power to a trusted successor. Kocharian is, like Putin,
    a man of action with a tough, uncompromising personality. And he may
    see the return of his former ally as a chance to relaunch his own
    public career.

    There are important differences, however. Unlike Dmitry Medvedev,
    current Armenian president Serzh Sarkisian (Serzh Sagsyan, whose term
    expires in early 2013) is the equal of his predecessor. Indeed, the two
    men were partners for thirty years; when they began their political
    careers in the early 1980s, in the Komsomol (Young Communist Party
    organization) of the town of Stepanakert, Sarkisian was the senior
    partner and Kocharian was his junior.

    More crucially, Putin is genuinely popular in Russia-if the country
    had an authentically competitive election and not just a choreographed
    coronation, he would probably win it. Kocharian, by contrast, is
    extremely unpopular with much of the Armenian public, and he would
    encounter strong public opposition if he initiated a comeback. Serzh
    Sarkisian will know that-and may indeed win some covert support from
    opposition figures, who prefer to see him in office over Kocharian.


    From: Baghdasarian
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