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THOMAS DE WAAL ON ARMENIAN EX-PRESIDENT'S POSSIBLE RETURN
Tert.am
06.10.11
Below is an excerpt from an article entitled "Vladimir Putin and the
South Caucasus" by Thomas de Waal, a senior associate at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. The article was published by The
National Interest, a conservative American bi-monthly international
affairs magazine.
Russia's neighbors are asking what the heralded return of Vladimir
Putin to the Kremlin means for their own regions. One such region is
the South Caucasus.
Caucasian leaders' calculations will certainly change in the wake of
the Putin move. In Armenia, news of his return will have gladdened
Robert Kocharian (Kocharyan), another ex-president who has been lurking
in the shadows. There are obvious parallels between the two: both men
gave up the position of president in 2008 after serving two terms and
handed over power to a trusted successor. Kocharian is, like Putin,
a man of action with a tough, uncompromising personality. And he may
see the return of his former ally as a chance to relaunch his own
public career.
There are important differences, however. Unlike Dmitry Medvedev,
current Armenian president Serzh Sarkisian (Serzh Sagsyan, whose term
expires in early 2013) is the equal of his predecessor. Indeed, the two
men were partners for thirty years; when they began their political
careers in the early 1980s, in the Komsomol (Young Communist Party
organization) of the town of Stepanakert, Sarkisian was the senior
partner and Kocharian was his junior.
More crucially, Putin is genuinely popular in Russia-if the country
had an authentically competitive election and not just a choreographed
coronation, he would probably win it. Kocharian, by contrast, is
extremely unpopular with much of the Armenian public, and he would
encounter strong public opposition if he initiated a comeback. Serzh
Sarkisian will know that-and may indeed win some covert support from
opposition figures, who prefer to see him in office over Kocharian.
From: Baghdasarian
Tert.am
06.10.11
Below is an excerpt from an article entitled "Vladimir Putin and the
South Caucasus" by Thomas de Waal, a senior associate at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. The article was published by The
National Interest, a conservative American bi-monthly international
affairs magazine.
Russia's neighbors are asking what the heralded return of Vladimir
Putin to the Kremlin means for their own regions. One such region is
the South Caucasus.
Caucasian leaders' calculations will certainly change in the wake of
the Putin move. In Armenia, news of his return will have gladdened
Robert Kocharian (Kocharyan), another ex-president who has been lurking
in the shadows. There are obvious parallels between the two: both men
gave up the position of president in 2008 after serving two terms and
handed over power to a trusted successor. Kocharian is, like Putin,
a man of action with a tough, uncompromising personality. And he may
see the return of his former ally as a chance to relaunch his own
public career.
There are important differences, however. Unlike Dmitry Medvedev,
current Armenian president Serzh Sarkisian (Serzh Sagsyan, whose term
expires in early 2013) is the equal of his predecessor. Indeed, the two
men were partners for thirty years; when they began their political
careers in the early 1980s, in the Komsomol (Young Communist Party
organization) of the town of Stepanakert, Sarkisian was the senior
partner and Kocharian was his junior.
More crucially, Putin is genuinely popular in Russia-if the country
had an authentically competitive election and not just a choreographed
coronation, he would probably win it. Kocharian, by contrast, is
extremely unpopular with much of the Armenian public, and he would
encounter strong public opposition if he initiated a comeback. Serzh
Sarkisian will know that-and may indeed win some covert support from
opposition figures, who prefer to see him in office over Kocharian.
From: Baghdasarian