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news.az, Azerbaijan
Oct 8 2011
Armenia still remains a more strategic partner of France than Azerbaijan
Sat 08 October 2011 05:51 GMT | 1:51 Local Time
News.Az interviews Samuel Lussac, a PhD candidate at the Institute of
Political Studies in Bordeaux, studying relations in the South
Caucasus.
What are the interests of France in the South Caucasus?
France has different interests according to which South Caucasian
state we are looking at. In Armenia, the French interests are mostly
domestic. The Armenian Diaspora in France represents around 500,000
people. It is a very active community in French politics. As such, it
is important for French political leaders to get support from this
community. The recent comments of President Sarkozy and of
presidential candidate François Hollande about the legislative
recognition of the Armenian genocide have to be understood in this
context.
In Azerbaijan, the French interests are related to business. The
Paris-based oil company Total is the third largest shareholder on the
Azerbaijani energy market. And it will play an increasing role since
the discovery, together with the French gas company GDF Suez and
SOCAR, of the Absheron gas field in early September. More importantly,
some French companies such as Thales hope to win the billion-dollars
contract for the expansion of the Baku subway. French companies may be
more and more active in Azerbaijan and President Sarkozy intends to
support them.
Finally, the French interests in Georgia are linked to France's
foreign policy. In 2008, President Sarkozy has succeeded as a
peace-maker. On the eve of the next presidential elections in France,
planned in April 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy aims at strengthening his
reputation as a president who cares of the state of the world. In this
context, the French intervention in Libya earlier this year was a
success. Georgia, with the current status quo in Abkhazia and in South
Ossetia, gives him another opportunity to do so.
Therefore, each South Caucasian carries different interests for
France. However, it should be underlined that France intends to be
more and more active in the whole South Caucasus and not only in
Armenia, which is quite a change in French foreign policy.
President Sarkozy's visit to Armenia was almost 2 day's, while visit
to Azerbaijan and Georgia was paid during only one day. Does it mean
that French interests in Armenia are bigger? Or President Sarkozy
indeed needs support from Armenian Diaspora during upcoming elections
in France, as `Figaro' writes?
As mentioned above, the current French political leadership has bigger
interests at stake in Armenia than in Azerbaijan or in Georgia. In
France, the visit of President Sarkozy to Baku and Tbilisi received
very little attention compared to his stay in Armenia. The Armenian
genocide is a long-standing issue in France, especially as Sarkozy
already promised in 2007 to get the law on the recognition of the
genocide ratified by the Senate. Even if French interests in
Azerbaijan are getting bigger and bigger, Armenia still remains a more
strategic partner of France than Azerbaijan.
N.Sarkozy expressed a wish to help resolve the Karabakh conflict. What
France may do to assist the Karabakh settlement?
This is a good question. And I have no answer to be honest. France is
already a co-chair of the Minsk Group and I can hardly see what else
it can do. Some prospects would be to copy the Russian role and to
organize trilateral meetings under the auspices of Paris. However, if
a lot can be said about Moscow's involvement, France does not stand as
a honest broker in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for Azerbaijan. I
shall remind that in 1997, when, in an unexpected move for Baku,
France became co-chair of the Minsk Group, Azerbaijan insisted on the
United States to become co-chair as well. Despite its strong Armenian
Diaspora, the latter was perceived as more impartial than France. And
little has changed on this matter since 14 years.
Do demands of Armenian Diaspora concerning French policy in the South
Caucasus reflect France state interests?
It is a difficult question to answer. First, we need to distinguish
the demands of the Armenian Diaspora in France. They are twofold: the
legislative recognition of the 1915 Armenian genocide, which would
make punishable by law to call into question the reality of this
event; and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to the
benefit of Yerevan and Stepanakert. Second, what is at stake on both
matters for France?
Ratifying the law on the Armenian genocide means to antagonize Turkey,
which is an important trade partner of France. Supporting only the
Armenian view on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the occupied
territories would lead to increasing tensions in the South Caucasus.
None are in the interest of France. Therefore, what is at stake with
President Sarkozy's visit to the South Caucasus is to find a balance
between promoting French trade interests and getting the support of
the Armenian Diaspora on the eve of crucial 2012 presidential
elections.
How would you estimate future of Azeri-French relations?
Quite good to be honest. The outcome of President Sarkozy's visit is
already known: he will encourage Turkey to recognize the Armenian
genocide, he will call both Armenia and Azerbaijan to find peace, and
he will ask for a diplomatic solution in Abkhazia and in South Ossetia
and support Georgia's European identity. From Armenian and Georgian
points of view, there is nothing new here. However, the situation is
quite new from an Azerbaijani perspective. Sarkozy's visit is the
first one of a French President in Azerbaijan since the independence.
It came after a year of strong cultural and political activism of both
the Heydar Aliyev Foundation and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Paris.
Some French leading political figures such as former Minister of
Justice Rachida Dati or Secretary of State in charge of Transportation
Thierry Mariani have recently encouraged France and French companies
to take a closer look at Azerbaijan. French business interests are
becoming more and more important in Azerbaijan, not only in the oil
sector but also in the construction and transportations ones.
Therefore, it is very likely that Azerbaijani-French relations will
increase in a near future. To the benefit of whom? I can't answer this
question yet. But it will be of interest to assess the role of France
in the South Caucasus in the next couple of years.
F.H.
News.Az
Oct 8 2011
Armenia still remains a more strategic partner of France than Azerbaijan
Sat 08 October 2011 05:51 GMT | 1:51 Local Time
News.Az interviews Samuel Lussac, a PhD candidate at the Institute of
Political Studies in Bordeaux, studying relations in the South
Caucasus.
What are the interests of France in the South Caucasus?
France has different interests according to which South Caucasian
state we are looking at. In Armenia, the French interests are mostly
domestic. The Armenian Diaspora in France represents around 500,000
people. It is a very active community in French politics. As such, it
is important for French political leaders to get support from this
community. The recent comments of President Sarkozy and of
presidential candidate François Hollande about the legislative
recognition of the Armenian genocide have to be understood in this
context.
In Azerbaijan, the French interests are related to business. The
Paris-based oil company Total is the third largest shareholder on the
Azerbaijani energy market. And it will play an increasing role since
the discovery, together with the French gas company GDF Suez and
SOCAR, of the Absheron gas field in early September. More importantly,
some French companies such as Thales hope to win the billion-dollars
contract for the expansion of the Baku subway. French companies may be
more and more active in Azerbaijan and President Sarkozy intends to
support them.
Finally, the French interests in Georgia are linked to France's
foreign policy. In 2008, President Sarkozy has succeeded as a
peace-maker. On the eve of the next presidential elections in France,
planned in April 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy aims at strengthening his
reputation as a president who cares of the state of the world. In this
context, the French intervention in Libya earlier this year was a
success. Georgia, with the current status quo in Abkhazia and in South
Ossetia, gives him another opportunity to do so.
Therefore, each South Caucasian carries different interests for
France. However, it should be underlined that France intends to be
more and more active in the whole South Caucasus and not only in
Armenia, which is quite a change in French foreign policy.
President Sarkozy's visit to Armenia was almost 2 day's, while visit
to Azerbaijan and Georgia was paid during only one day. Does it mean
that French interests in Armenia are bigger? Or President Sarkozy
indeed needs support from Armenian Diaspora during upcoming elections
in France, as `Figaro' writes?
As mentioned above, the current French political leadership has bigger
interests at stake in Armenia than in Azerbaijan or in Georgia. In
France, the visit of President Sarkozy to Baku and Tbilisi received
very little attention compared to his stay in Armenia. The Armenian
genocide is a long-standing issue in France, especially as Sarkozy
already promised in 2007 to get the law on the recognition of the
genocide ratified by the Senate. Even if French interests in
Azerbaijan are getting bigger and bigger, Armenia still remains a more
strategic partner of France than Azerbaijan.
N.Sarkozy expressed a wish to help resolve the Karabakh conflict. What
France may do to assist the Karabakh settlement?
This is a good question. And I have no answer to be honest. France is
already a co-chair of the Minsk Group and I can hardly see what else
it can do. Some prospects would be to copy the Russian role and to
organize trilateral meetings under the auspices of Paris. However, if
a lot can be said about Moscow's involvement, France does not stand as
a honest broker in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for Azerbaijan. I
shall remind that in 1997, when, in an unexpected move for Baku,
France became co-chair of the Minsk Group, Azerbaijan insisted on the
United States to become co-chair as well. Despite its strong Armenian
Diaspora, the latter was perceived as more impartial than France. And
little has changed on this matter since 14 years.
Do demands of Armenian Diaspora concerning French policy in the South
Caucasus reflect France state interests?
It is a difficult question to answer. First, we need to distinguish
the demands of the Armenian Diaspora in France. They are twofold: the
legislative recognition of the 1915 Armenian genocide, which would
make punishable by law to call into question the reality of this
event; and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to the
benefit of Yerevan and Stepanakert. Second, what is at stake on both
matters for France?
Ratifying the law on the Armenian genocide means to antagonize Turkey,
which is an important trade partner of France. Supporting only the
Armenian view on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the occupied
territories would lead to increasing tensions in the South Caucasus.
None are in the interest of France. Therefore, what is at stake with
President Sarkozy's visit to the South Caucasus is to find a balance
between promoting French trade interests and getting the support of
the Armenian Diaspora on the eve of crucial 2012 presidential
elections.
How would you estimate future of Azeri-French relations?
Quite good to be honest. The outcome of President Sarkozy's visit is
already known: he will encourage Turkey to recognize the Armenian
genocide, he will call both Armenia and Azerbaijan to find peace, and
he will ask for a diplomatic solution in Abkhazia and in South Ossetia
and support Georgia's European identity. From Armenian and Georgian
points of view, there is nothing new here. However, the situation is
quite new from an Azerbaijani perspective. Sarkozy's visit is the
first one of a French President in Azerbaijan since the independence.
It came after a year of strong cultural and political activism of both
the Heydar Aliyev Foundation and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Paris.
Some French leading political figures such as former Minister of
Justice Rachida Dati or Secretary of State in charge of Transportation
Thierry Mariani have recently encouraged France and French companies
to take a closer look at Azerbaijan. French business interests are
becoming more and more important in Azerbaijan, not only in the oil
sector but also in the construction and transportations ones.
Therefore, it is very likely that Azerbaijani-French relations will
increase in a near future. To the benefit of whom? I can't answer this
question yet. But it will be of interest to assess the role of France
in the South Caucasus in the next couple of years.
F.H.
News.Az