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FRENCH PRESIDENT'S WHISTLE-STOP TOUR DRAWS ATTENTION TO LINGERING CONFLICTS IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
BYLINE: Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
October 10, 2011
French president Nicolas Sarkozy ended a three-day tour to Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia on 7 October 2011 during which he threw his
support behind stalling peace processes in the region, as well as
using the occasion to underline his government's peacemaking foreign
policy agenda.
Boosting French Presence in South Caucasus
IHS Global Insight Perspective On 7 October 2011 Sarkozy wrapped up his
three-day, whistle-stop tour to the three former Soviet republics of
South Caucasus. The tour was to highlight Sarkozy and his centre-right
government's keen interest in maintaining an active role as peacemaker,
as well as sustaining pressure on the regional governments, Russia
and Turkey to push ahead with peace processes.
Significance Sarkozy's visit was useful in highlighting the existing
issues in region. His bold statements criticising Russia and Turkey
also revealed his government's position on the factors that contributed
to stalling peace talks between Georgia and Russia on the one hand,
and Armenia and Turkey on the other.
Implications The positive response from all three South Caucasian
capitals to Sarkozy's call to push ahead with painful talks
is positive for the French president, but unlikely to bring any
concrete results. The timing of the tour is most likely linked to the
election period in France in which Sarkozy is involved. Nevertheless,
while the French leader's visit was meant to boost his international
credentials in front of the French electorate, it was also beneficial
for the three South Caucasian states to see the active involvement of
a leading EU state. French foreign policy commitment could be useful
if it is sustained for the long term.
Outlook On 7 October 2011 French president Nicolas Sarkozy finalised
his quick tour to the capitals of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia,
three former Soviet republics of South Caucasus. The visit came shortly
after the French president's centre-right party suffered losses in the
25 September 2011 election for the upper house of parliament. This was
a blow for Sarkozy as it came seven months prior to the presidential
race. The victory in the Senate elections by the Socialist opposition
and left-wing parties for the first time in the history of the
53-year-old Fifth French Republic has further cast a shadow on Sarkozy
and his centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party's ability
to win the upcoming election for the lower house and the crucial April
2012 presidential vote. Although Sarkozy has not officially stated
if he is going to run in the presidential race, many see his foreign
policy initiatives as designed to boost his image as a statesman on
a global level, a diplomat who was trusted to end the August 2008
war between Georgia and Russia, with an active role in international
efforts against Iran's potential nuclear weaponisation programme and
who spearheaded the international support for the anti-government
uprising against former Libyan leader General Muammar al-Qadhafi.
When it comes to South Caucasus, France is certainly ahead of the
key European Union states, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom,
in terms of its influence on the geopolitics of the region. Since the
collapse of the Soviet Union, Paris has played an important role in
nearly all peacemaking initiatives. It is currently one of the three
co-chairing countries, along with Russia and the United States, in the
Minsk Group set up by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation
in Europe (OSCE). The Minsk Group brokered the armistice deal between
Armenia, Azerbaijan and its breakaway, mainly ethnic Armenian region
of Nagorno Karabakh back in 1994. France was continuously involved in
the Armenian/Azerbaijani peace negotiations over the final status of
Nagorno Karabakh. In 2009 it also became the international mediator in
Armenian/Turkish normalisation talks. French efforts are also important
for the continuing talks between Georgia and Russia over the former's
breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sarkozy's whistle-stop
visit was an opportune moment to highlight his personal efforts to
bring peace to this conflict-riddled region for the past few years,
as well as reasserting the French position on a number of thorny
issues that have stalled all three peace processes in South Caucasus.
French-Armenian "Exceptional Ties"
Armenia was the first country where Sarkozy spent the longest time
highlighting traditionally strong ties between the two states. Armenia
is currently involved in two of these processes and Sarkozy's two days
in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, were spent discussing the current
state of play. The French president called the ties between the two
countries "exceptional" and unveiled plans to deepen already strong
commercial ties.
However, the peace talks were the main focus of Sarkozy's current
visit. After laying flowers at the Armenian Genocide Memorial,
he reiterated France's stance on the issue of the Armenian state's
pursuit of international recognition of the genocide of over 1.5
million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire during 1915-18. Back in 1998
France had already recognised the massacres as genocide and Sarkozy
called on Turkey to do the same. According to Agence France-Presse
(AFP), he said, "Turkey, which is a great country, would be honorable
to revisit its history like the other great countries in the world
have done: Germany, France," adding that "the genocide of Armenians
is a historic reality that was recognised by France. Collective denial
is even worse than individual denial." Turkey continues to vehemently
deny that the massacres were centrally organised and puts the number
killed at much lower than 800,000.
This issue is at the heart of extremely poor relations between Armenia
and Turkey. Armenian president Serzhe Sargsyan's 2009 initiative
to normalise ties with Turkey without any pre-conditions led to the
signing of two sets of peace protocols, mediated by the US, Russia,
the EU and Switzerland, and with active support from France. The deal
would see Turkey lift its blockade of Armenia, imposed in 1993 to
economically weaken Armenia, and express its support for Azerbaijan,
its ethnic kin. The countries were to seek ways to deal with the
existing animosity over the painful past, but the idea behind the
talks was to avoid making Armenia's pursuit of recognition of genocide
a pre-condition rather than discuss it on a bilateral level. The
protocols failed as the Turkish parliament refused to ratify them.
Ankara maintained that it was Armenia's fault, but judging by
the international mediators' reaction, Yerevan emerged as the more
co-operative party. Armenia froze the process according to the prior
agreement, but recently the Turkish parliament scrapped the issue of
the ratification of the twin protocols from it agenda.
Sarkozy's statement was to send a clear signal to Turkey as to where
France stands when it comes to the issue. He went as far as saying
that "from 1915 to 2011 it seems to be enough [time] for reflection"
for the Turkish government and called its refusal to recognise the
deaths as genocide as "unacceptable". He said that he was not making
an ultimatum, but if Turkey fails to make this "gesture of peace"
and "step towards reconciliation", he would consider suggesting that
French lawmakers adopt a law criminalising the denial of the killings
as genocide. The Turkish reaction came with no delay; the country's
EU minister, Egemen Ba , stated that "it would be better... if Mr.
Sarkozy abandons the role of historian and looks for the ways to solve
the economic problems of the European Union." This reaction was all
but unexpected for the French delegation and highlighted once again
the complexity of the Armenian-Turkish relations, which are unlikely
to improve any time soon.
Baku and Tbilisi Next
As a Minsk Group co-chair, France has been very closely involved in
the peace talks on finalising the status of Azerbaijan's self-declared
independent republic of Nagorno Karabakh. The mainly Armenian region
has been de facto independent since a bloody war of 1988-94, which
claimed over 30,000 lives on both sides. The peace talks have not
brought any significant breakthrough despite numerous rounds of talks.
Sarkozy's message to both Armenia and Azerbaijan was clear: the
parties cannot continue with the status quo and need to agree
to the Madrid Basic Principles developed through internationally
mediated talks. The response was positive from both sides in terms
of appreciating France's efforts, although much more pressure will
be required to see the talks move forward from the current standstill.
Georgia was the last stop for Sarkozy where he did not shy away
from criticising Moscow for not following the terms of the August
2008 agreement with Georgia, brokered to end the five-day war between
Tbilisi and Moscow over the former's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Sarkozy threw his support behind Georgia's aspirations
of independent foreign policy, including the pursuit of EU and NATO
membership, which should not be constrained by Moscow. The French
president was well received in Tbilisi, but given that since the 2008
agreement Russia has already recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia
as independent states, it is hard to see how France can reverse this
process in favour of Georgia's territorial integrity.
Outlook and Implications
Sarkozy's visit was undoubtedly driven by domestic as much as
foreign policy considerations. Given the stalemate in all three peace
processes in the South Caucasus, the French president's efforts were
welcome but would hardly make much difference. The warm reception
in the region is also unlikely to translate into concrete domestic
electoral support, although some marginal improvement should not be
ruled out. Furthermore, the uncertain future of the current government
also weakens last week's peacemaking initiative.
That said, the visit should not be discounted completely. It was
important to clarify France's foreign policy stance on a number of
issues. This position is unlikely to see a dramatic change even if the
current French government does not survive the vote. Having a major
international player such as France showing consistent support for
peace processes is also important for the South Caucasian countries.
Thirdly, with Russia, which traditionally has a much stronger influence
in the region, becoming more inward-looking ahead of the crucial
March 2012 presidential election, France could step up its profile
in the region as a peacemaker if Sarkozy's government can find the
time during the election period.
From: A. Papazian
BYLINE: Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
October 10, 2011
French president Nicolas Sarkozy ended a three-day tour to Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia on 7 October 2011 during which he threw his
support behind stalling peace processes in the region, as well as
using the occasion to underline his government's peacemaking foreign
policy agenda.
Boosting French Presence in South Caucasus
IHS Global Insight Perspective On 7 October 2011 Sarkozy wrapped up his
three-day, whistle-stop tour to the three former Soviet republics of
South Caucasus. The tour was to highlight Sarkozy and his centre-right
government's keen interest in maintaining an active role as peacemaker,
as well as sustaining pressure on the regional governments, Russia
and Turkey to push ahead with peace processes.
Significance Sarkozy's visit was useful in highlighting the existing
issues in region. His bold statements criticising Russia and Turkey
also revealed his government's position on the factors that contributed
to stalling peace talks between Georgia and Russia on the one hand,
and Armenia and Turkey on the other.
Implications The positive response from all three South Caucasian
capitals to Sarkozy's call to push ahead with painful talks
is positive for the French president, but unlikely to bring any
concrete results. The timing of the tour is most likely linked to the
election period in France in which Sarkozy is involved. Nevertheless,
while the French leader's visit was meant to boost his international
credentials in front of the French electorate, it was also beneficial
for the three South Caucasian states to see the active involvement of
a leading EU state. French foreign policy commitment could be useful
if it is sustained for the long term.
Outlook On 7 October 2011 French president Nicolas Sarkozy finalised
his quick tour to the capitals of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia,
three former Soviet republics of South Caucasus. The visit came shortly
after the French president's centre-right party suffered losses in the
25 September 2011 election for the upper house of parliament. This was
a blow for Sarkozy as it came seven months prior to the presidential
race. The victory in the Senate elections by the Socialist opposition
and left-wing parties for the first time in the history of the
53-year-old Fifth French Republic has further cast a shadow on Sarkozy
and his centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party's ability
to win the upcoming election for the lower house and the crucial April
2012 presidential vote. Although Sarkozy has not officially stated
if he is going to run in the presidential race, many see his foreign
policy initiatives as designed to boost his image as a statesman on
a global level, a diplomat who was trusted to end the August 2008
war between Georgia and Russia, with an active role in international
efforts against Iran's potential nuclear weaponisation programme and
who spearheaded the international support for the anti-government
uprising against former Libyan leader General Muammar al-Qadhafi.
When it comes to South Caucasus, France is certainly ahead of the
key European Union states, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom,
in terms of its influence on the geopolitics of the region. Since the
collapse of the Soviet Union, Paris has played an important role in
nearly all peacemaking initiatives. It is currently one of the three
co-chairing countries, along with Russia and the United States, in the
Minsk Group set up by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation
in Europe (OSCE). The Minsk Group brokered the armistice deal between
Armenia, Azerbaijan and its breakaway, mainly ethnic Armenian region
of Nagorno Karabakh back in 1994. France was continuously involved in
the Armenian/Azerbaijani peace negotiations over the final status of
Nagorno Karabakh. In 2009 it also became the international mediator in
Armenian/Turkish normalisation talks. French efforts are also important
for the continuing talks between Georgia and Russia over the former's
breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sarkozy's whistle-stop
visit was an opportune moment to highlight his personal efforts to
bring peace to this conflict-riddled region for the past few years,
as well as reasserting the French position on a number of thorny
issues that have stalled all three peace processes in South Caucasus.
French-Armenian "Exceptional Ties"
Armenia was the first country where Sarkozy spent the longest time
highlighting traditionally strong ties between the two states. Armenia
is currently involved in two of these processes and Sarkozy's two days
in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, were spent discussing the current
state of play. The French president called the ties between the two
countries "exceptional" and unveiled plans to deepen already strong
commercial ties.
However, the peace talks were the main focus of Sarkozy's current
visit. After laying flowers at the Armenian Genocide Memorial,
he reiterated France's stance on the issue of the Armenian state's
pursuit of international recognition of the genocide of over 1.5
million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire during 1915-18. Back in 1998
France had already recognised the massacres as genocide and Sarkozy
called on Turkey to do the same. According to Agence France-Presse
(AFP), he said, "Turkey, which is a great country, would be honorable
to revisit its history like the other great countries in the world
have done: Germany, France," adding that "the genocide of Armenians
is a historic reality that was recognised by France. Collective denial
is even worse than individual denial." Turkey continues to vehemently
deny that the massacres were centrally organised and puts the number
killed at much lower than 800,000.
This issue is at the heart of extremely poor relations between Armenia
and Turkey. Armenian president Serzhe Sargsyan's 2009 initiative
to normalise ties with Turkey without any pre-conditions led to the
signing of two sets of peace protocols, mediated by the US, Russia,
the EU and Switzerland, and with active support from France. The deal
would see Turkey lift its blockade of Armenia, imposed in 1993 to
economically weaken Armenia, and express its support for Azerbaijan,
its ethnic kin. The countries were to seek ways to deal with the
existing animosity over the painful past, but the idea behind the
talks was to avoid making Armenia's pursuit of recognition of genocide
a pre-condition rather than discuss it on a bilateral level. The
protocols failed as the Turkish parliament refused to ratify them.
Ankara maintained that it was Armenia's fault, but judging by
the international mediators' reaction, Yerevan emerged as the more
co-operative party. Armenia froze the process according to the prior
agreement, but recently the Turkish parliament scrapped the issue of
the ratification of the twin protocols from it agenda.
Sarkozy's statement was to send a clear signal to Turkey as to where
France stands when it comes to the issue. He went as far as saying
that "from 1915 to 2011 it seems to be enough [time] for reflection"
for the Turkish government and called its refusal to recognise the
deaths as genocide as "unacceptable". He said that he was not making
an ultimatum, but if Turkey fails to make this "gesture of peace"
and "step towards reconciliation", he would consider suggesting that
French lawmakers adopt a law criminalising the denial of the killings
as genocide. The Turkish reaction came with no delay; the country's
EU minister, Egemen Ba , stated that "it would be better... if Mr.
Sarkozy abandons the role of historian and looks for the ways to solve
the economic problems of the European Union." This reaction was all
but unexpected for the French delegation and highlighted once again
the complexity of the Armenian-Turkish relations, which are unlikely
to improve any time soon.
Baku and Tbilisi Next
As a Minsk Group co-chair, France has been very closely involved in
the peace talks on finalising the status of Azerbaijan's self-declared
independent republic of Nagorno Karabakh. The mainly Armenian region
has been de facto independent since a bloody war of 1988-94, which
claimed over 30,000 lives on both sides. The peace talks have not
brought any significant breakthrough despite numerous rounds of talks.
Sarkozy's message to both Armenia and Azerbaijan was clear: the
parties cannot continue with the status quo and need to agree
to the Madrid Basic Principles developed through internationally
mediated talks. The response was positive from both sides in terms
of appreciating France's efforts, although much more pressure will
be required to see the talks move forward from the current standstill.
Georgia was the last stop for Sarkozy where he did not shy away
from criticising Moscow for not following the terms of the August
2008 agreement with Georgia, brokered to end the five-day war between
Tbilisi and Moscow over the former's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Sarkozy threw his support behind Georgia's aspirations
of independent foreign policy, including the pursuit of EU and NATO
membership, which should not be constrained by Moscow. The French
president was well received in Tbilisi, but given that since the 2008
agreement Russia has already recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia
as independent states, it is hard to see how France can reverse this
process in favour of Georgia's territorial integrity.
Outlook and Implications
Sarkozy's visit was undoubtedly driven by domestic as much as
foreign policy considerations. Given the stalemate in all three peace
processes in the South Caucasus, the French president's efforts were
welcome but would hardly make much difference. The warm reception
in the region is also unlikely to translate into concrete domestic
electoral support, although some marginal improvement should not be
ruled out. Furthermore, the uncertain future of the current government
also weakens last week's peacemaking initiative.
That said, the visit should not be discounted completely. It was
important to clarify France's foreign policy stance on a number of
issues. This position is unlikely to see a dramatic change even if the
current French government does not survive the vote. Having a major
international player such as France showing consistent support for
peace processes is also important for the South Caucasian countries.
Thirdly, with Russia, which traditionally has a much stronger influence
in the region, becoming more inward-looking ahead of the crucial
March 2012 presidential election, France could step up its profile
in the region as a peacemaker if Sarkozy's government can find the
time during the election period.
From: A. Papazian