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THE 'GREAT WALL' OF KARABAKH
by Yury Roks
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Russia
October 13, 2011 Thursday
The next meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia
may take place under the mediation of French President Nikolas Sarkozy.
This announcement was made Wednesday by Azerbaijani sources, who
specified that the proposal was made during the French leader's recent
visit to the region and that it had been discussed and approved by
the presidents of Russia and the United States. However, a spokesman
for Armenia's Foreign Affairs Ministry categorically denied the
information: "Azerbaijan has been acting strange lately."
One of the things the Armenian diplomat considered to be strange was
Azerbaijan's ANS Press reports about a wall which is being erected
along the line of contact with the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The stone structure will stretch for almost 3 kilometers in Tatar
District in order to "protect the residents of Azerbaijani villages
from Armenian bullets."
Armenia has expressed a readiness to provide assistance in the
construction of the wall.
"And not just for 3 kilometers, but along the entire border - so
that they do not see us, and we don't see them," an officer of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army said. He added that "it would have
been cheaper and easier for the Azerbaijanis to remove their snipers,
but despite the recommendations made by the mediators, they are not -
and we are forced to respond to fire with fire."
"On the other hand, they have plenty of petro-dollars - they want a
wall, let there be a wall," said the source.
Though a wall can always be erected, the Great Wall of China, the
Berlin Wall, Hadrian's Wall, or even the Incas' mysterious walls at
Sacsayhuaman ultimately could not withstand the test of time.
Another attempt to break through the wall of animosity between
Azerbaijanis and Armenians will be made by the co-chairmen of the
OSCE Minsk Group before the end of October. According to the foreign
affairs minister of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mamedyarov, the mediators' visit
"will be aimed at searching for a compromise between the conflicting
sides." However, it seems that in reality Baku does not believe the
forthcoming meeting will be productive.
On Tuesday, the assistant secretary of the Security Department of
Azerbaijan's Foreign Affairs Ministry, Elchin Guseinli, said that the
co- chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group are creating the possibility of
artificially prolonging the Karabakh conflict.
"The Minsk Group has been carrying an important responsibility for
20 years, but the co-chairmen still do not feel like they are... The
passive attitude of the OSCE Minsk Group toward conflict regulation
could undermine the authority of this organization in the Caucasus,"
Guseinli said at a conference in Baku which was jointly organized by
the interstate GUAM alliance (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova)
and the Baltic Assembly (inter-parliamentary organization of Latvia,
Lithuania and Estonia).
In Guseinli's opinion, the Karabakh conflict and the conflicts in
Georgia threaten international security, and the OSCE Minsk Group,
"instead of supporting the just position of Azerbaijan... prefers to
cooperate with Armenia."
Guseinli complained about Armenia's close military and political ties
with Russia, which are "a reason for instability in the region,"
and accused Erevan of violating its international obligations: the
arms and the military personnel of Armenia are allegedly exceeding
the limits set forth in international treaties, which indicates that
Armenia is getting ready for war, whereas "Azerbaijan is using its
acquired weapons for the protection of its energy infrastructure."
The validity of these claims will need to be determined by the
assistant secretary of state for arms control, Rose Gottemoeller, who
will inspect the South Caucasus countries during a visit October 14-19.
In the meantime, Mikhail Aleksandrov, an expert with the Institute
of CIS, declared Guseinli's statements to be illogical.
"It is strange hearing Azerbaijan accuse Armenia of being engaged in
an arms race," he said. "Baku is the one provoking it and flaunting its
military budget. Baku is the one insisting that a military solution to
the problem is possible. Azerbaijan should reconsider its approach -
the standard of living in the country is not high to the point of
being able to spend such resources on the military."
Aleksandrov also criticized the Azerbaijani official's claims
regarding the creation of a regional imbalance as a result of Russia
and Armenia's strategic partnership.
"To the contrary, Armenian-Russian ties support a balance of forces,"
Aleksandrov said. "With its presence in the South Caucasus, Russia
is creating a counterbalance to Turkey, Iran and preventing the West
from getting access to the region, including military. If it wasn't
for Russia, the South Caucasus would be in a similar situation as we
are observing in Syria or Libya today."
As for the accusations directed at the OSCE Minsk Group of creating
obstacles to conflict resolution, the political scientist believes that
"it is simply pressure to persuade mediators to side with Baku."
"Conflict settlement is possible only if both sides decide to
compromise, but Azerbaijan has no intention to yield and blames the
OSCE," Aleksandrov said. "It wants to gain everything back in the same
shape as it was in before the collapse of the Soviet Union, which
is impossible. Baku must recognize Nagorno-Karabakh's independence
in exchange for seven districts around it - this option is still
available, but might also become unrealizable in another 10 years."
"The OSCE is the only institution working on European security, and
it does not matter whether Azerbaijan likes it or not... The bellicose
rhetoric of Baku is at odds with OSCE policy - neither Europe nor the
United States wants a new war in the Caucasus," said Anatoly Tsyganok,
head of the Military Forecasting Center at the Institute of Political
and Military Analysis. "Azerbaijan will hardly be able to go outside
of the Minsk Group format. Despite some shortcomings, the OSCE has
strong positions. It's worth mentioning that the conflict itself and
its settlement process do not solely depend on Azerbaijan, but also
on Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and partially Russia, Iran and Turkey."
by Yury Roks
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Russia
October 13, 2011 Thursday
The next meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia
may take place under the mediation of French President Nikolas Sarkozy.
This announcement was made Wednesday by Azerbaijani sources, who
specified that the proposal was made during the French leader's recent
visit to the region and that it had been discussed and approved by
the presidents of Russia and the United States. However, a spokesman
for Armenia's Foreign Affairs Ministry categorically denied the
information: "Azerbaijan has been acting strange lately."
One of the things the Armenian diplomat considered to be strange was
Azerbaijan's ANS Press reports about a wall which is being erected
along the line of contact with the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The stone structure will stretch for almost 3 kilometers in Tatar
District in order to "protect the residents of Azerbaijani villages
from Armenian bullets."
Armenia has expressed a readiness to provide assistance in the
construction of the wall.
"And not just for 3 kilometers, but along the entire border - so
that they do not see us, and we don't see them," an officer of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army said. He added that "it would have
been cheaper and easier for the Azerbaijanis to remove their snipers,
but despite the recommendations made by the mediators, they are not -
and we are forced to respond to fire with fire."
"On the other hand, they have plenty of petro-dollars - they want a
wall, let there be a wall," said the source.
Though a wall can always be erected, the Great Wall of China, the
Berlin Wall, Hadrian's Wall, or even the Incas' mysterious walls at
Sacsayhuaman ultimately could not withstand the test of time.
Another attempt to break through the wall of animosity between
Azerbaijanis and Armenians will be made by the co-chairmen of the
OSCE Minsk Group before the end of October. According to the foreign
affairs minister of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mamedyarov, the mediators' visit
"will be aimed at searching for a compromise between the conflicting
sides." However, it seems that in reality Baku does not believe the
forthcoming meeting will be productive.
On Tuesday, the assistant secretary of the Security Department of
Azerbaijan's Foreign Affairs Ministry, Elchin Guseinli, said that the
co- chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group are creating the possibility of
artificially prolonging the Karabakh conflict.
"The Minsk Group has been carrying an important responsibility for
20 years, but the co-chairmen still do not feel like they are... The
passive attitude of the OSCE Minsk Group toward conflict regulation
could undermine the authority of this organization in the Caucasus,"
Guseinli said at a conference in Baku which was jointly organized by
the interstate GUAM alliance (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova)
and the Baltic Assembly (inter-parliamentary organization of Latvia,
Lithuania and Estonia).
In Guseinli's opinion, the Karabakh conflict and the conflicts in
Georgia threaten international security, and the OSCE Minsk Group,
"instead of supporting the just position of Azerbaijan... prefers to
cooperate with Armenia."
Guseinli complained about Armenia's close military and political ties
with Russia, which are "a reason for instability in the region,"
and accused Erevan of violating its international obligations: the
arms and the military personnel of Armenia are allegedly exceeding
the limits set forth in international treaties, which indicates that
Armenia is getting ready for war, whereas "Azerbaijan is using its
acquired weapons for the protection of its energy infrastructure."
The validity of these claims will need to be determined by the
assistant secretary of state for arms control, Rose Gottemoeller, who
will inspect the South Caucasus countries during a visit October 14-19.
In the meantime, Mikhail Aleksandrov, an expert with the Institute
of CIS, declared Guseinli's statements to be illogical.
"It is strange hearing Azerbaijan accuse Armenia of being engaged in
an arms race," he said. "Baku is the one provoking it and flaunting its
military budget. Baku is the one insisting that a military solution to
the problem is possible. Azerbaijan should reconsider its approach -
the standard of living in the country is not high to the point of
being able to spend such resources on the military."
Aleksandrov also criticized the Azerbaijani official's claims
regarding the creation of a regional imbalance as a result of Russia
and Armenia's strategic partnership.
"To the contrary, Armenian-Russian ties support a balance of forces,"
Aleksandrov said. "With its presence in the South Caucasus, Russia
is creating a counterbalance to Turkey, Iran and preventing the West
from getting access to the region, including military. If it wasn't
for Russia, the South Caucasus would be in a similar situation as we
are observing in Syria or Libya today."
As for the accusations directed at the OSCE Minsk Group of creating
obstacles to conflict resolution, the political scientist believes that
"it is simply pressure to persuade mediators to side with Baku."
"Conflict settlement is possible only if both sides decide to
compromise, but Azerbaijan has no intention to yield and blames the
OSCE," Aleksandrov said. "It wants to gain everything back in the same
shape as it was in before the collapse of the Soviet Union, which
is impossible. Baku must recognize Nagorno-Karabakh's independence
in exchange for seven districts around it - this option is still
available, but might also become unrealizable in another 10 years."
"The OSCE is the only institution working on European security, and
it does not matter whether Azerbaijan likes it or not... The bellicose
rhetoric of Baku is at odds with OSCE policy - neither Europe nor the
United States wants a new war in the Caucasus," said Anatoly Tsyganok,
head of the Military Forecasting Center at the Institute of Political
and Military Analysis. "Azerbaijan will hardly be able to go outside
of the Minsk Group format. Despite some shortcomings, the OSCE has
strong positions. It's worth mentioning that the conflict itself and
its settlement process do not solely depend on Azerbaijan, but also
on Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and partially Russia, Iran and Turkey."