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CENTRAL BANK: RATIO OF ARMENIA'S FOREIGN DEBT TO GDP BELIEVED TO WORSEN BETWEEN 2011 AND 2013
/ARKA/
October 19, 2011
YEREVAN
YEREVAN, October 19. /ARKA/. The ratio of Armenia's foreign debt to
GDP is though to worsen over the period between 2011 and 2013, but
it will not exceed 50%, the Central Bank of Armenia says in report
"Financial Stability for the First Half of 2011".
Analyzing three scenarios projected by the financial regulator,
central bank experts said that the basic scenario, which forecasts
36.9%, 36.4% and 34.8% ratio of the state debt to GDP for 2011, 2012
and 2013 respectively, is grounded on a hope that GDP will grow 4.6%
this year, and 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.8% in 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively
in the event of favorable developments in Armenian and world economies.
The central bank also expects recovery of world economy via a weak
but sustainable economic growth and restoration of global demand.
World prices for precious metals will be stable as the flow of
individual money transfers to Armenia will intensify.
The first alternative scenario forecasts that the share of the
country's foreign debt in GDP will be 44.42%, 44.62% and 44.12% in
2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively as economic growth in the country
will slow down by 2%.
According to the second alternative scenario, the ratio of Armenia's
foreign debt to GDP will be 40.76%, 44.26 and 46.13% in 2011, 2012 and
2013 respectively, and the Armenian dram will devaluate by 10%. The
U.S. dollar is believed to trade at 382 drams in 2011, 400 drams in
2012 and 420 drams in 2013. ($1 = AMD 376.19).
/ARKA/
October 19, 2011
YEREVAN
YEREVAN, October 19. /ARKA/. The ratio of Armenia's foreign debt to
GDP is though to worsen over the period between 2011 and 2013, but
it will not exceed 50%, the Central Bank of Armenia says in report
"Financial Stability for the First Half of 2011".
Analyzing three scenarios projected by the financial regulator,
central bank experts said that the basic scenario, which forecasts
36.9%, 36.4% and 34.8% ratio of the state debt to GDP for 2011, 2012
and 2013 respectively, is grounded on a hope that GDP will grow 4.6%
this year, and 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.8% in 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively
in the event of favorable developments in Armenian and world economies.
The central bank also expects recovery of world economy via a weak
but sustainable economic growth and restoration of global demand.
World prices for precious metals will be stable as the flow of
individual money transfers to Armenia will intensify.
The first alternative scenario forecasts that the share of the
country's foreign debt in GDP will be 44.42%, 44.62% and 44.12% in
2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively as economic growth in the country
will slow down by 2%.
According to the second alternative scenario, the ratio of Armenia's
foreign debt to GDP will be 40.76%, 44.26 and 46.13% in 2011, 2012 and
2013 respectively, and the Armenian dram will devaluate by 10%. The
U.S. dollar is believed to trade at 382 drams in 2011, 400 drams in
2012 and 420 drams in 2013. ($1 = AMD 376.19).