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SETTLEMENT IMITATION CONTINUES
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics23845.html
Published: 18:29:17 - 19/10/2011
The mass media informed that the Azerbaijani minister of foreign
affairs has announced that Azerbaijan still wants to work on the peace
agreement. "In order not to waste time, we think we need to start work
on the peace agreement. On the basis of issues agreed earlier so far,
it is possible to start preparation of the great peace agreement."
It seems that the wedding was cancelled but the groom still has some
hope. At the same time, it is clear that the mediators continue to
imitate a process of settlement but now it is much more difficult to
generate scenarios of settlement because all the possibilities have
been used.
Certainly, the visit of the Deputy Secretary William Burns to Baku
was useful, and apparently Aliyev was made to understand that it is
better to continue imitation than to fight. Azerbaijan has apparently
appeared in a political deadlock, and its government understands
there are no political perspectives of solving the problem according
to the scenario which is closer to Azerbaijan's interests. First
the Americans were happy about the failure of the Russian attempts
to solve the problem to their benefit, and then they understood that
they are losing the initiative because the French offered the conflict
sides a variant in the "real politik" style.
Even though France displays an aspiration to form the basis for its
geopolitics in the region, it is not responsible for the unfolding of
events to the extent the United States does. In case Turkey's position
expands in the region, the United States will become suspicious,
which is unacceptable in any case.
However, Turkey's policy has a secondary importance in the operations
of the United States in the South Caucasus. The United States have
settled it down that Turkey cannot interfere with the South Caucasus
and formats the role of Armenia acting as a partner in the policy
of constraining Turkey and as balance in the South Caucasus. Russia
keeps a distance, and it is time for "obligatory" solution of problems.
Azerbaijan was let know that there is no other way, and the Azerbaijani
government accepted this proposal - there is no other way out. No
great agreement is concerned in reality. Simply another scenario of
imitation is proposed. However, this time the game will not be on
the side of Azerbaijan and an interesting game has been thought out
together with Armenia, which presents a fundamental re-recruitment.
The political government of Armenia is intrigued, and possibly lost,
but the proposal was accepted, and there are some illusions that it is
possible to conduct a multi-vector policy. In fact, multi-vector policy
is a beautiful diplomatic bluff. The Russian battalion may take part
in the next military parade again but it does not settle most issues.
Serzh Sargsyan is the main political intrigue in the South Caucasus.
In fact, he could be Saakashvili's rival. How long this intrigue will
last depends on the goals of the United States in the South Caucasus.
There can be three scenarios. The United States involves the political
government of Armenia in its goals deep enough and then offers an
absolutely unacceptable variant of solution of the Karabakh problem.
The United States forms a "small arena" for involving in its plans not
only Armenia but also Russia for the solution of its problems in the
regions with the help of the CSTO and the Russian-Armenian military
union. In a certain stage the United States disclaims responsibility
and limits its military and political presence in the region.
In any case, there is time to get some privileges, and this chance
should not be missed. For the first time, such a chance occurred
during the meeting of Bill Clinton with Robert Kocharyan in 1999 (some
time before Clinton left the office of president) but this chance was
missed, and the Americans took this as Robert Kocharyan's reluctance
to promote relations, and simply there was lack of understanding of
the meaning of this proposal which was done then. The next U.S.
administration had other priorities.
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics23845.html
Published: 18:29:17 - 19/10/2011
The mass media informed that the Azerbaijani minister of foreign
affairs has announced that Azerbaijan still wants to work on the peace
agreement. "In order not to waste time, we think we need to start work
on the peace agreement. On the basis of issues agreed earlier so far,
it is possible to start preparation of the great peace agreement."
It seems that the wedding was cancelled but the groom still has some
hope. At the same time, it is clear that the mediators continue to
imitate a process of settlement but now it is much more difficult to
generate scenarios of settlement because all the possibilities have
been used.
Certainly, the visit of the Deputy Secretary William Burns to Baku
was useful, and apparently Aliyev was made to understand that it is
better to continue imitation than to fight. Azerbaijan has apparently
appeared in a political deadlock, and its government understands
there are no political perspectives of solving the problem according
to the scenario which is closer to Azerbaijan's interests. First
the Americans were happy about the failure of the Russian attempts
to solve the problem to their benefit, and then they understood that
they are losing the initiative because the French offered the conflict
sides a variant in the "real politik" style.
Even though France displays an aspiration to form the basis for its
geopolitics in the region, it is not responsible for the unfolding of
events to the extent the United States does. In case Turkey's position
expands in the region, the United States will become suspicious,
which is unacceptable in any case.
However, Turkey's policy has a secondary importance in the operations
of the United States in the South Caucasus. The United States have
settled it down that Turkey cannot interfere with the South Caucasus
and formats the role of Armenia acting as a partner in the policy
of constraining Turkey and as balance in the South Caucasus. Russia
keeps a distance, and it is time for "obligatory" solution of problems.
Azerbaijan was let know that there is no other way, and the Azerbaijani
government accepted this proposal - there is no other way out. No
great agreement is concerned in reality. Simply another scenario of
imitation is proposed. However, this time the game will not be on
the side of Azerbaijan and an interesting game has been thought out
together with Armenia, which presents a fundamental re-recruitment.
The political government of Armenia is intrigued, and possibly lost,
but the proposal was accepted, and there are some illusions that it is
possible to conduct a multi-vector policy. In fact, multi-vector policy
is a beautiful diplomatic bluff. The Russian battalion may take part
in the next military parade again but it does not settle most issues.
Serzh Sargsyan is the main political intrigue in the South Caucasus.
In fact, he could be Saakashvili's rival. How long this intrigue will
last depends on the goals of the United States in the South Caucasus.
There can be three scenarios. The United States involves the political
government of Armenia in its goals deep enough and then offers an
absolutely unacceptable variant of solution of the Karabakh problem.
The United States forms a "small arena" for involving in its plans not
only Armenia but also Russia for the solution of its problems in the
regions with the help of the CSTO and the Russian-Armenian military
union. In a certain stage the United States disclaims responsibility
and limits its military and political presence in the region.
In any case, there is time to get some privileges, and this chance
should not be missed. For the first time, such a chance occurred
during the meeting of Bill Clinton with Robert Kocharyan in 1999 (some
time before Clinton left the office of president) but this chance was
missed, and the Americans took this as Robert Kocharyan's reluctance
to promote relations, and simply there was lack of understanding of
the meaning of this proposal which was done then. The next U.S.
administration had other priorities.