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Three Principles, Six Guidelines And "status-Quo" In The Karabakh Co

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  • Three Principles, Six Guidelines And "status-Quo" In The Karabakh Co

    THREE PRINCIPLES, SIX GUIDELINES AND "STATUS-QUO" IN THE KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTELEMENT
    Mikhail Aghajanyan

    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict expert
    20.10.2011

    The process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement is going
    through one of the most intensive stages. It is more correct to speak
    about the intensification than about stirring up, because stirring
    up implies the disposition of all the parties to the conflict
    to rapprochement, while intensification is based first of all on
    amplification of the external impulses. The stances of the parties,
    which are well-known and do not need presentation, has not changed.

    The external powers, carrying out mediation attempts, doubled their
    efforts and it is mostly prominent in Russia's efforts.

    The "dry residue" of the meeting in Kazan is that Armenia once more
    demonstrated constructive stand and was ready to sign the document
    which was often called a "road map" of the settlement. But it is not
    happening for one simple reason: Azerbaijan is fully occupied by the
    imitation of readiness to set this "road map", one of the provisions
    of which clearly states "the definition of the future legal status
    of Nagorno-Karabakh through the will expression of its population
    which will have legally biding force".

    Besides intensification of the process of settlement, its
    confidentiality, which distances this topical process from public, is
    emphasized. Nevertheless, taking into consideration the closed nature
    of the process and paucity of information about the actual settlement
    of the conflict, some theses which spread light on some aspects of
    the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement can be brought forward.

    Status, security and territories The international status of
    Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state will be founded on the
    legally biding force of the will expression of the population
    of Nagorno-Karabakh and will be the best guarantee of its
    security. Nagorno-Karabakh has already de-facto been formed within its
    factual borders, the international recognition and documentary setting
    of which are possible after the resolution of the issue of the borders
    between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. Those are the issues, for the
    resolution of which, Azerbaijan is not ready, because the resolution
    of the later is not possible without involvement of the representatives
    of Nagorno-Karabakh, meanwhile Baku opposes to the their involvement.

    Azerbaijan is simulating vigorous activity, which comes down to
    unacceptability of the current status-quo in the conflict zone, but
    in reality it does everything for the current status-quo to remain
    unchanged. Nagorno-Karabakh on practice has everything what has been
    mentioned above - secure borders, territory of historical Artsakh,
    which are under the jurisdiction of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

    They only need international recognition of the current de-facto
    status of Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state. In this aspect
    the stance of the Armenian parties concerning one of the guidelines of
    the settlement is in granting Nagorno-Karabakh intermediate status and
    it seems rather well-considered and fully founded on today's realities.

    The intermediate status for Karabakh "means status-quo plus", i.e. all
    we have today, plus international recognition of that status" (thesis
    from the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia E.

    Nalbandyan at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in
    London on July 13, 2011).

    Azerbaijan is simulating the process of settlement due to very simple
    reason. In Baku they realize that getting back to the 1988 status and
    borders is not possible. The only chance for them is new aggression
    against Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani thesis that Nagorno-Karabakh
    has never been an independent state is nostalgia for 1988 with a claim
    for the second attempt of military revanche for the final resolution
    of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue according to the scenario tested in 1990.

    By the way, this thesis of the Azerbaijani leadership indirectly shows
    that Baku is ready to consider the issue of reunion of Armenia and
    Nagorno-Karabakh which found solution in the joint resolution of the
    Supreme Soviet of the Arm. SSR and National Soviet of Nagorno-Karabakh
    of December 1, 1989. In Baku they believe that this will qualitatively
    facilitate resolution of such issues as status, security and
    territories from the position advantageous for Azerbaijan and it will
    present the conflict in quite different light, i.e. in the light of
    conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan with bringing Nagorno-Karabakh
    down to the level of object and not a subject of agreements.

    The nostalgia syndrome of 1989 can be seen in the stance of the
    Azerbaijani leadership on all the levels. Unlike two other parties
    to the conflict and assessment of external actors, Azerbaijan has
    got nowhere for the recent 20 years in their desire of "instituting
    direct vertical sovereign control over that territory and people living
    there. Azerbaijan took a step to the middle of the bridge saying it
    was ready to show some flexibility, meaning various models of autonomy
    for the population in Karabakh region within Azerbaijan Republic, i.e.

    to flexibility within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. We
    are ready for that and we took a step to the middle of the bridge"
    (from interview of Araz Azimov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs,
    personal envoy of the president of Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh
    settlement to "Ekho Moskvi" radio station, 19 July, 20111). The things
    called in Baku "flexibility" and "readiness for the compromise"
    more remind dictating terms with the elements of despotic caprice
    ("setting control over people living there") and allegoric clownery
    ("taking step to the middle of the bridge").

    Repeated referendum Agreement to holding repeated referendum for
    setting the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh is the biggest concession
    of the Armenian party on this stage of the process of settlement.

    The political and legal retrospective review of the issue of referendum
    in Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrates the sequence of operations of the
    Armenian parties and it is connected with defining the will of the
    people of Nagorno-Karabakh. In the aspect of political and legal
    actions, the actions of Azerbaijan which "won its independence by
    deaths of shahids" by means of physical annihilation of the Armenians
    in January 1990 and in 1991 it took part in the all-USSR referendum
    on preserving the USSR (March 17, 1991) and overwhelming majority
    (93.3%) voted for preserving the USSR (87.3% voted for the USSR in
    Nakhijevan ASSR). The population of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh did
    not take part in that referendum. By the way it is interesting to
    mention that according to Russian researchers Transdniestria, which
    formally did not separate from Chisinau, as well as Abkhazia and South
    Ossetia participated in the referendum and made it demonstrative"2.

    Three principles and six guidelines The Armenian parties, most
    probably in concord with each other, took an absolutely right stance
    on what should be considered principles and guidelines (elements)
    of settlement. Only three well-known principles of international law
    can be considered as principles in regard to the Karabakh settlement
    - non-use of force and threat of force, the right of people to
    self-determination, territorial integrity of the states.

    The items of the well-known statements by the presidents of the US,
    Russia and France (of July 10, 2009 and July 26, 2010) which were
    mentioned in Deauville statement on May 26, 2011 are the guidelines
    of the settlement (by the way in the last statement those guidelines
    are called "elements"). Such an interpretation allows annihilating
    Azerbaijani insinuations that if Nagorno-Karabakh is not taking part in
    the elaboration and adoption of the "basic principles" of settlement,
    it is not a party to the conflict, party at the negotiations and
    generally this is Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict between Armenia
    and Azerbaijan. In reality, Nagorno-Karabakh is considering only
    three aforementioned principles of international law as principles
    of settlement. As for the rest, including the guidelines of the
    settlement, the signing of which even in this form, by the way,
    Azerbaijan avoided in Kazan, Nagorno-Karabakh has its own vision.

    The document, which includes "basic principles" of settlement, which
    are the subject of negotiation between two of three parties to the
    conflict, is characterized as political and it does not have any legal
    liabilities for the Armenia and Azerbaijan, which may approve it in
    perspective. According to the distinct definition of the Minister
    of the Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov "The parties are
    working on the assumption that after the basic principles, anyway,
    legal document, i.e. peace agreement, should be prepared. Of course
    this will demand more attention to details. Nevertheless, the basic
    principles as a political document would have a great importance,
    as they would demonstrate in political aspect determination for
    obtaining the settlement"3.

    However, this does not reduce the value of the checked stance of the
    Armenian parties which put clear accents in terminology concerning
    three principles and six guidelines sounded in the statements
    of the presidents of the US, Russia and France. Besides, focusing
    attention rather on political than on legally abiding essence of the
    "basic principles" is appropriate, particularly, in the light of
    the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia in which
    reads: "the project of the basic principles is a political and not
    legal document which begins with words: "presidents of Armenia and
    Azerbaijan decided to begin work over the Peace Agreement". Then
    only the guidelines which we being reconciled now and which will be
    included in the peace agreement follow"4.

    Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan may decide to begin the work over
    the peace agreement but that work makes no sense without participation
    of the official representative of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Restoring full-format negotiations It is implied that after the
    adoption of the "basic principles" of the settlement on the initial
    stage work over the peace agreement on Karabakh conflict settlement,
    the chosen representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh will be involved in
    the negotiations. Azerbaijan torpedoes this too, making statements
    that in this case it is necessary to involve the representatives of
    the Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    It is said a lot about the necessity of a speedy restoration of the
    full-format talks with the participation the NKR. It is also said a
    lot that there are no examples in modern history of the settlement
    of similar conflicts when one of the parties does not take part in
    the talks on equal terms. Here we will bring an example from the
    Israeli-Palestine conflict which is similar to Karabakh conflict in
    its complexity. It is known that the current stage of this inveterate
    conflict is in stagnation but it might have had simply inevitable
    consequences if Israeli party refused conducting negotiations with
    the official representatives of Palestine pleading the fact that
    there is no such state and Israel would conduct negotiations only with
    internationally recognized Arab country. There is no such thing. Quite
    the opposite, there have been statements and actions by Israel
    underlining direct talks with the representatives of Palestine. E.g.

    words of incumbent prime-minister B. Netanyahu that only his "direct
    and proceeding contacts" with the head of the Palestine national
    administration M. Abbas might bring to the breakthrough on main
    disputable issues5.

    External efforts Mediatory component is gradually becoming an
    irreplaceable element in the whole process of settlement. The activity
    of co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, special mediatory mission of
    the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia has become an integral part
    of the process of settlement. According to definition the US, Russia
    and France give to the efforts of the Minsk Group - we have one goal
    but different interests. Their common goal is not allow sliding down
    of the conflict to the stage of military revanche by Azerbaijan. The
    difference in interests is of deeper and wider nature, which touches
    on an entire layer in approaches of great powers to the issues of
    the South Caucasus, Black Sea and Caspian regions. The parties can
    always come to terms on one goal and they did it concerning preserving
    stability in the zone of Karabakh conflict. As for their interests
    they will never come to terms because this is the reality of balance of
    the internal powers in the region and the layout of the powers outside.

    But close cooperation within the mediatory mechanism of the Minsk
    group gives all three external actors additional opportunities when
    both their goals and interests differ on other regional issues. So,
    it can be supposed that for the US, Russia and France the mechanism
    of co-chairmanship within the framework of the Minsk Group has turned
    into a convenient diplomatic ground allowing to control situation in
    one of the most problematic issues in the South Caucasus as well as
    to create preconditions for finding convergence points on problematic
    issues in other regions.

    1 Full text of the interview:
    http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/beseda/794348-echo/.

    2 oерCей ШелEн, oказка о сохраненном oоюзе, "cазета.Ру",
    http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2011/03/16_a_3556021.shtml, 16.03.2011.

    3 oтеноCрамма Eнтервью мEнEстра Eностранных дел РоссEE o. Лаврова
    азербайдOанскEм oМe, Москва, 27 авCуста 2010 Cода, aепартамент
    EнформацEE E печатE Мea РоссEE (http://www.mid.ru/).

    4 Statement and answers of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia
    S.Lavrov to the mass media during the joint press-conference following
    the results of the negotiations with the Minister of Foreign Affairs
    of Azerbaijan E. Mamadyarov, Moscow, July 18, 2011. Information
    and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
    (http://www.mid.ru/).

    5 Netanyahu wants nonstop talks with Palestinians,
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/2/netanyahu-wants-nonstop-talks-palestinians/,
    02.01.2011.

    "Globus Energy and Regional Security", Issue 5, 2011

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Another materials of author

    *POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE ASPECTS OF THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT
    SETTLEMENT ROADMAP AT CURRENT STAGE[18.02.2011] *RUSSIA-TUKREY
    RELATIONS IN THE SPOTLIGHT OF THE US AND UN[21.12.2010] *RUSSIA AND
    SOME ASPECTS OF CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION IN THE BLACK SEA
    REGION [08.07.2010] *"BLACK SEA SYNERGY" INITIATIVE AND THE SOUTHERN
    CAUCASUS[25.01.2010] *FROM APPLIED TO CONCEPTUAL: POSSIBLE APPROACH
    TO THE FORMATION OF THE DOCTRINE OF INFORMATIONAL SECURITY OF ARMENIA
    [21.05.2009]

    (c) "Noravank" Foundation

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