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The South Caucasus: A Political Earthquake Zone

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  • The South Caucasus: A Political Earthquake Zone

    The South Caucasus: A Political Earthquake Zone

    http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2011/10/21/south-caucasus-political-earthquake-zone
    October 21, 2011 - 6:07pm | admin
    By Tanya Melich


    Since gaining their independence from the Soviet Union 20 years ago,
    Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia have struggled to prove to themselves
    and the outside world that they can determine their own fate.

    Such hopes are fading.

    These tiny South Caucasus countries live in a political earthquake
    zone, surrounded by the region's giants - Russia, Turkey, and Iran. In
    exchange for peace and modest prosperity for themselves and their
    citizens, South Caucasus leaders appear to be making major
    governmental decisions that benefit Russia and - to a lesser
    extent - Turkey. (Any benefits to Iran are harder to ascertain.)

    These regional giants are ratcheting up the action. They want to
    control the region's oil wealth and exploit its potentially rich
    minerals. They know that profits lie in transporting Azerbaijan and
    Kazakhstan's oil to European markets and that the easiest pipeline
    routes are through the South Caucasus. They also know that political
    leverage will go to those who control the oil spigot to Europe.

    The Southern Caucasus countries haven't broken the cultural hold that
    Russia has on them, nor have they made it clear that's what they want.
    Each country has a different response to its former Soviet master, and
    the middle-aged and elderly exhibit a depression that comes from
    having lived in a police state. To them, no one from the outside can
    be trusted, but better the Russians than some group they don't know.

    Most say how glad they are to be free of the Soviets but then wax
    nostalgic about the excellence of the Soviet educational system and
    how they love Lermontovo's poetry and Pushkin's novels.

    The predominant language heard in all three countries is Russian.
    Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia have separate languages and unusual
    alphabets, and few can speak either of the other two. Most business
    transactions among these three groups are in Russian and occasionally
    in English, especially in Georgia which mandated that schools teach
    English as the second language.

    Even after the five-day war against Russia in 2008, most Georgians
    know their future depends on reasonable relations with their neighbor.
    Georgia lost its areas of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia when both
    declared their independence and are now home to Russian troops
    guaranteeing it.

    Present tensions between the two countries revolve around Russia's
    attempt to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Unanimous consent
    is required for WTO entry. Georgia, a member, refuses to accept Russia
    into the WTO without an agreement providing trade transparency on
    Russia's borders with Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Georgia.

    The parties are furiously negotiating, and an agreement is expected.
    Russia is thought to prefer peace with its neighbors as it prepares
    for the 2014 Winter Olympics, which are being hosted in Sochi on the
    Black Sea and next to the Georgian border.

    But, after the Olympics, no one knows what Putin might do to
    consolidate Russia's influence over Georgia.

    For the moment, Russia and Georgia barely speak. Georgia has friends
    in the West, but that friendship is limited to student exchanges,
    foreign aid, and investments. The country's other main leverage is
    through control over the pipelines that cross its land.

    Some Azeris also have a schizoid confusion toward Russia. In 2011
    Azerbaijan's singing duet won the Eurovision Song Contest, and as a
    result, the contest will be in Baku in 2012. For the occasion, the
    Azeri government and oligarchs have built three gigantic glass
    buildings topped with a tulip design for the Contest's performances.

    What is strange is that these wild, unsacred Disneyesque showcases are
    directly across the street from the most sacred space in Azerbaijan,
    the Martyrs Lane. This memorial honors the Azeris who demonstrated
    against the Soviets in 1990 and were mowed down by Soviet troops who
    originally came to establish order between the Armenians and Azeris of
    Baku. It was the beginning of the new Azerbaijan state.

    Yet it is not the Russians, but the Armenians that contemporary Azeris hate.

    The memorial also commemorates those Azeris who died from 1992 to '94
    in the conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. When a ceasefire
    was established, the Armenians had won the territory but over a
    million people from both sides lost their homes and 20,000 had died.

    Armenians and Azeris lived together in both countries for centuries.
    But now the border is closed, and neither side speaks to each other.
    The hatred is palpable.

    My Baku guide told me that it was just a matter of time before
    oil-rich Azerbaijan goes to war to get back Nagorno-Karabakh. Both
    Azerbaijan and Armenia have bought arms from Ukraine.

    Armenia seems to feel the same. Our guide in Yerevan often talked
    about how much she hated the Azeris, and while she did not want it,
    she expected war. Implicit in the conversations of people in both
    countries was the assumption that only the Russians would be able to
    keep the peace.

    Armenia is a sad place. Its population is around 900,000, and with its
    stagnant economy, many are leaving. It has no official relations with
    Turkey and none with Azerbaijan. Armenia is landlocked and, except
    through Georgia, has no way to export its produce. Tourism is its only
    viable industry and even that is modest. The country survives because
    of the vitality of the Armenian diaspora, thought to be at least five
    million people, based in Russia, Europe, and North America.

    There are few signs that the region is working toward a sustainable
    peace although there are half-hearted conversations that the EU will
    help when a crisis occurs.

    In mid-October, the Atlantic Council Task Force on Georgia `argued for
    intensified domestic reform and a new sense of common purpose and
    clarity from the United States and Europe to work toward a democratic
    Georgia embedded in the institutions of the West.'

    These are admirable goals, but for the foreseeable future, Georgia and
    its South Caucasus neighbors have their hands full. They will try to
    stop Russia from gobbling them up and try to entice Turkey and Iran to
    help them.

    The wiser leaders of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia know they are
    stuck with their neighbors. They continue - in the long tradition of
    their part of the world - to balance the anger of their citizens for war
    against Russian, Turkish and Iranian ambition.

    They have a difficult challenge. Don't be surprised if war breaks out
    in one or several of these countries when the Sochi Olympics are over.

    Tanya Melich just returned from the Southern Caucasus. She is a
    political analyst and author with decades of experience in U.S.
    politics including providing foreign policy research for U.S.
    political candidates. She is a former staff writer for the Foreign
    Policy Association.

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