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ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF EASTERN PARTNERSHIP AND PROSPECTS OF "EUROPEAN-STYLE REMODELING" OF ARMENIA
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Tuesday, October 25, 14:08
The third summit of Eastern Partnership member countries will take
place in the second half of 2013 over the period of Lithuania's
chairmanship in the European Union. When analyzing the achievements and
events held under the given policy, Armenia and other member countries
do not cease wondering what this policy provides to 6 countries of the
post-Soviet space. This question is especially relevant in the light
of Moscow's obvious negative attitude towards the given initiative
of the EU.
Actually, it is not surprising given the fact that it was initiated by
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski with participation of Sweden,
and sought to be an instrument of rapprochement between the EU and
6 republics of the former USSR: Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is noteworthy that as a responsive measure,
Russia seeks to expand its presence in all the 6 republics, first of
all, via increasing its economic penetration and establishing close
ties between the Russian political parties and the parties representing
the political elite of the countries involved in Eastern Partnership...
Disadvantages...
Among the disadvantages of the policy, the analytical communities of
the 6 countries, first of all, point out that the summits of Eastern
Partnership take place exclusively during the chairmanship of East
European countries in the EU. This is direct evidence of a low
interest of West Europe in this initiative. Thus, the first summit
was held in Prague in May 2009 over the term of the Czech Republic's
chairmanship in the EU, and many experts considered it to be a failure
due to the low level of representatives of the leading EU states in
it. The second summit took place in Warsaw on September 29-30 during
Poland's chairmanship and was marked by the scandal with Belarus,
whose president, Alexander Lukashenko, was not invited to the summit
at all. This was qualified in Belarus as one more manifestation of
"the Western policy of double standards".
At the same time, the attitude of the EU itself towards Eastern
Partnership is far from being unambiguous. For instance, Poland,
Sweden and the Czech Republic have a quite serious attitude to the
Eastern Partnership policy, but as a structure, the EU is interested
in saving the common currency - euro, rather than in this program.
Although they in the EU generally sympathize Armenia, there are
countries in Eastern Partnership, which leave Armenia behind: the
matter concerns Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. This especially concerns
the Association Agreement. Ukraine is of great significance in the EU,
and this is proved by the fact that the EU is going to allocate 600
mln EUR for the promotion of bilateral cooperation with Ukraine before
2014. This amount is half of all the money reserved for the bilateral
cooperation of all the 6 member states of Eastern Partnership.
Advantages...
However, if one soberly analyzes the situation, all these reproaches
prove to be unconvincing, taking into account that today Eastern
Partnership is the only real instrument of rapprochement between 6 CIS
states and Europe. One of the main advantages of Eastern Partnership
is the impetus that the initiative puts in the process of development
of relations between the East European countries and the countries
involved in the program. In case of Armenia, this is especially
displayed by the example of Poland. Thus, the agenda of Armenia-Poland
cooperation will shortly be formulated in the process of European
integration within the frames of Eastern Partnership. On October 17
Head of the National Security Bureau of Poland Stanislaw Koziej, who
paid an official visit to Yerevan, expressed Poland's willingness to
support the ongoing reforms in Armenia in every possible way.
In general, the Armenian-Polish political dialogue is at a quite
high level, which is proved by the frequent bilateral high-level
visits of the recent years, first and foremost, by the official visit
of Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski to Armenia in July. In the
meantime, one should note that despite the absence of French President
Nicolas Sarkozy from the latest summit of Eastern Partnership, which
demonstrates, to put it mildly, the not so serious attitude of France
to this program, it is first of all France that expresses Armenia's
interests in the EU. For instance, France considers Armenia to be a
clubman moving towards the EU at rapid pace. For its part, Armenia has
repeatedly confirmed its adherence to European values. The republic
has already done certain work within Eastern Partnership frames to
simplify the visa regime and create a free trade zone. In this matter,
Armenia enjoys the advisory support of the EU experts.
Eastern Partnership and Russia
Meanwhile, to all appearances, Europe is by no means going to create a
new focus of tension with Russia by means of Eastern Partnership. This
is proved by the 24 May 2010 proposal of Poland to set up "a group
of friends" within Eastern Partnership with participation of Russia.
However, Moscow displayed no serious attitude to this proposal.
Instead, it started seriously considering the initiative of Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to create a Eurasian economic union
with the countries of the former USSR. The economic expansion in
the CIS countries also gained momentum. For instance, over 1999-2010
the Russian investments in small Armenia amounted to $3 bln. After
construction of the new nuclear power unit in Metsamor, the total
volume of Russian investments will reach about $5 bln. Today there are
about 1400 Russian-Armenian companies in Armenia with joint capital.
So, the result of Russia's efforts is obvious. Thus, Russia is
going to assert its interests in the CIS states. In the meantime,
the risks connected with the reshuffle within Medvedev-Putin tandem
do not concern the post-Soviet space. Even if the power is changed
in Russia tomorrow, one should not expect Moscow to refuse its
national interests in the post-Soviet space, because the foreign
political vector of Moscow generally undergoes no changes from the
power replacement. Consequently, in any scenario of developments, the
objective geopolitical interests of Russia, which do not depend on the
leader's surname, should be taken into account by Moscow's partners.
Foreign political preferences
At present, the political leaders of Russia have numerous supporters
in Armenia, first of all, in the Prosperous Armenia (PA) coalitional
party. In this context, the participation of Prosperous Armenia Leader
Gagik Tsarukyan in the 12th congress of United Russia Party in Moscow
is not accidental. The main partner of Prosperous Armenia in Russia
is the pro-Putin United Russia Party, and the party thinks that the
Armenian-Russian relations will only benefit from the re-election of
Putin as Russian president. The PA Leader Gagik Tsarukyan, an oligarch,
the owner of Multi Group concern in Armenia, has already stated that
Putin's presidency will only have a positive effect on Armenia both in
development of Armenian-Russian relations and in terms of the Karabakh
peace process. The leaders of smaller political parties of Armenia
also come out with statements, and for some reason, they do this on
behalf of Armenian people. For instance, Leader of the Democratic
Party of Armenia Aram Sargsyan thinks that "the Armenian people want
to be pro-Russian in the country's foreign relations". If in case
of the Republican Party of Armenia led By Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan, the cooperation with the Medvedev administration does not
seem to be unambiguous, Prosperous Armenia does its best for further
development of the ties with Russian political parties, first of all,
with United Russia.
Prospects
The abovementioned contrast is most vividly observed when analyzing
the foreign political course of the Armenian incumbent president's
team. When considering the latest steps of Serzh Sargsyan in his
skilled maneuvering between the West and Russia, the heel towards
Europe is getting more and more tangible. Moreover, the expected
conclusion is that Sargsyan is even going to make a "European-style
remodeling" in the republic, which will cover a wide range of domestic
and foreign political problems. This remodeling looks quite relevant
against the background of strengthening Armenia-EU cooperation within
Eastern Partnership, which will become one of its key instruments.
At the same time, the matter does not concern radical revision of
Armenia's foreign political priorities. To all appearances, the
Armenian president realized the necessity of profound political and
institutional reforming of the public life of the country. For this
and for constructiveness in the Armenian-Turkish process, Sargsyan
enjoys the support of Europe and the US. Despite the numerous
visits to Moscow, one cannot say that he enjoys similar support in
the Kremlin. In the meantime, the talk about the "European-style
remodeling" is more than the real steps. This allows the oppositional
analysts to speak of imitation of these processes. The answer to
this question can be given only by the second presidential term of
Sargsyan, because it is now more than clear whose interests Gagik
Tsarukyan expresses in Armenia. Therefore, it is obvious today that
the assumption of power by Tsarukyan and the ex-president of Armenia,
Putin's friend Robert Kocharyan will inevitably become a step back for
Armenia, because populism has never been a basis for "European-style
remodeling" and the related reforms, including the unpopular ones.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Tuesday, October 25, 14:08
The third summit of Eastern Partnership member countries will take
place in the second half of 2013 over the period of Lithuania's
chairmanship in the European Union. When analyzing the achievements and
events held under the given policy, Armenia and other member countries
do not cease wondering what this policy provides to 6 countries of the
post-Soviet space. This question is especially relevant in the light
of Moscow's obvious negative attitude towards the given initiative
of the EU.
Actually, it is not surprising given the fact that it was initiated by
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski with participation of Sweden,
and sought to be an instrument of rapprochement between the EU and
6 republics of the former USSR: Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is noteworthy that as a responsive measure,
Russia seeks to expand its presence in all the 6 republics, first of
all, via increasing its economic penetration and establishing close
ties between the Russian political parties and the parties representing
the political elite of the countries involved in Eastern Partnership...
Disadvantages...
Among the disadvantages of the policy, the analytical communities of
the 6 countries, first of all, point out that the summits of Eastern
Partnership take place exclusively during the chairmanship of East
European countries in the EU. This is direct evidence of a low
interest of West Europe in this initiative. Thus, the first summit
was held in Prague in May 2009 over the term of the Czech Republic's
chairmanship in the EU, and many experts considered it to be a failure
due to the low level of representatives of the leading EU states in
it. The second summit took place in Warsaw on September 29-30 during
Poland's chairmanship and was marked by the scandal with Belarus,
whose president, Alexander Lukashenko, was not invited to the summit
at all. This was qualified in Belarus as one more manifestation of
"the Western policy of double standards".
At the same time, the attitude of the EU itself towards Eastern
Partnership is far from being unambiguous. For instance, Poland,
Sweden and the Czech Republic have a quite serious attitude to the
Eastern Partnership policy, but as a structure, the EU is interested
in saving the common currency - euro, rather than in this program.
Although they in the EU generally sympathize Armenia, there are
countries in Eastern Partnership, which leave Armenia behind: the
matter concerns Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. This especially concerns
the Association Agreement. Ukraine is of great significance in the EU,
and this is proved by the fact that the EU is going to allocate 600
mln EUR for the promotion of bilateral cooperation with Ukraine before
2014. This amount is half of all the money reserved for the bilateral
cooperation of all the 6 member states of Eastern Partnership.
Advantages...
However, if one soberly analyzes the situation, all these reproaches
prove to be unconvincing, taking into account that today Eastern
Partnership is the only real instrument of rapprochement between 6 CIS
states and Europe. One of the main advantages of Eastern Partnership
is the impetus that the initiative puts in the process of development
of relations between the East European countries and the countries
involved in the program. In case of Armenia, this is especially
displayed by the example of Poland. Thus, the agenda of Armenia-Poland
cooperation will shortly be formulated in the process of European
integration within the frames of Eastern Partnership. On October 17
Head of the National Security Bureau of Poland Stanislaw Koziej, who
paid an official visit to Yerevan, expressed Poland's willingness to
support the ongoing reforms in Armenia in every possible way.
In general, the Armenian-Polish political dialogue is at a quite
high level, which is proved by the frequent bilateral high-level
visits of the recent years, first and foremost, by the official visit
of Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski to Armenia in July. In the
meantime, one should note that despite the absence of French President
Nicolas Sarkozy from the latest summit of Eastern Partnership, which
demonstrates, to put it mildly, the not so serious attitude of France
to this program, it is first of all France that expresses Armenia's
interests in the EU. For instance, France considers Armenia to be a
clubman moving towards the EU at rapid pace. For its part, Armenia has
repeatedly confirmed its adherence to European values. The republic
has already done certain work within Eastern Partnership frames to
simplify the visa regime and create a free trade zone. In this matter,
Armenia enjoys the advisory support of the EU experts.
Eastern Partnership and Russia
Meanwhile, to all appearances, Europe is by no means going to create a
new focus of tension with Russia by means of Eastern Partnership. This
is proved by the 24 May 2010 proposal of Poland to set up "a group
of friends" within Eastern Partnership with participation of Russia.
However, Moscow displayed no serious attitude to this proposal.
Instead, it started seriously considering the initiative of Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to create a Eurasian economic union
with the countries of the former USSR. The economic expansion in
the CIS countries also gained momentum. For instance, over 1999-2010
the Russian investments in small Armenia amounted to $3 bln. After
construction of the new nuclear power unit in Metsamor, the total
volume of Russian investments will reach about $5 bln. Today there are
about 1400 Russian-Armenian companies in Armenia with joint capital.
So, the result of Russia's efforts is obvious. Thus, Russia is
going to assert its interests in the CIS states. In the meantime,
the risks connected with the reshuffle within Medvedev-Putin tandem
do not concern the post-Soviet space. Even if the power is changed
in Russia tomorrow, one should not expect Moscow to refuse its
national interests in the post-Soviet space, because the foreign
political vector of Moscow generally undergoes no changes from the
power replacement. Consequently, in any scenario of developments, the
objective geopolitical interests of Russia, which do not depend on the
leader's surname, should be taken into account by Moscow's partners.
Foreign political preferences
At present, the political leaders of Russia have numerous supporters
in Armenia, first of all, in the Prosperous Armenia (PA) coalitional
party. In this context, the participation of Prosperous Armenia Leader
Gagik Tsarukyan in the 12th congress of United Russia Party in Moscow
is not accidental. The main partner of Prosperous Armenia in Russia
is the pro-Putin United Russia Party, and the party thinks that the
Armenian-Russian relations will only benefit from the re-election of
Putin as Russian president. The PA Leader Gagik Tsarukyan, an oligarch,
the owner of Multi Group concern in Armenia, has already stated that
Putin's presidency will only have a positive effect on Armenia both in
development of Armenian-Russian relations and in terms of the Karabakh
peace process. The leaders of smaller political parties of Armenia
also come out with statements, and for some reason, they do this on
behalf of Armenian people. For instance, Leader of the Democratic
Party of Armenia Aram Sargsyan thinks that "the Armenian people want
to be pro-Russian in the country's foreign relations". If in case
of the Republican Party of Armenia led By Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan, the cooperation with the Medvedev administration does not
seem to be unambiguous, Prosperous Armenia does its best for further
development of the ties with Russian political parties, first of all,
with United Russia.
Prospects
The abovementioned contrast is most vividly observed when analyzing
the foreign political course of the Armenian incumbent president's
team. When considering the latest steps of Serzh Sargsyan in his
skilled maneuvering between the West and Russia, the heel towards
Europe is getting more and more tangible. Moreover, the expected
conclusion is that Sargsyan is even going to make a "European-style
remodeling" in the republic, which will cover a wide range of domestic
and foreign political problems. This remodeling looks quite relevant
against the background of strengthening Armenia-EU cooperation within
Eastern Partnership, which will become one of its key instruments.
At the same time, the matter does not concern radical revision of
Armenia's foreign political priorities. To all appearances, the
Armenian president realized the necessity of profound political and
institutional reforming of the public life of the country. For this
and for constructiveness in the Armenian-Turkish process, Sargsyan
enjoys the support of Europe and the US. Despite the numerous
visits to Moscow, one cannot say that he enjoys similar support in
the Kremlin. In the meantime, the talk about the "European-style
remodeling" is more than the real steps. This allows the oppositional
analysts to speak of imitation of these processes. The answer to
this question can be given only by the second presidential term of
Sargsyan, because it is now more than clear whose interests Gagik
Tsarukyan expresses in Armenia. Therefore, it is obvious today that
the assumption of power by Tsarukyan and the ex-president of Armenia,
Putin's friend Robert Kocharyan will inevitably become a step back for
Armenia, because populism has never been a basis for "European-style
remodeling" and the related reforms, including the unpopular ones.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress