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AZERBAIJAN IS 'LOSING' KARABAKH - RUSSIAN EXPERT
Tert.am
25.10.11
Below is an article by the Russian political scientist Stanislav
Tarasov
"Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's first state visit to Russia is
a historic event. First of all, the statements the two leaders made
in Moscow are evidence thereof. Following his talks with his Armenian
counterpart Serzh Sargsyan, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev stated
that the bilateral trade turnover is expected to exceed US $1bn - an
increase against not only last year, but also the pre-crisis level. It
should be noted that, given the blockade imposed on Armenia because
of Nagorno-Karabakh, the figures are just fantastic.
"This factor, however, did not prevent Russian capital investments
in Armenia's economy. 'Russian capital investments in the Armenian
economy have exceeded US $2.8bn,' said President Dmitri Medvedev. 'We
are developing cooperation in such fields as energy, high technologies
and transport.' According to him, 'these are good signals.'
"The reports are not at all sensational. The Armenian president
stressed that he would like to see his country as a member of the
Customs Union and Eurasian Union, even though his country does not
border on any of the Customs Union member-states - to say nothing of
cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
However, the situation may prove different tomorrow. Everything
depends on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan re-affirmed Yerevan's commitment to the soonest settlement
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by only peaceful means, on the
basis of principles of international law that constitute a single
whole. What does it mean? The UN General Assembly has repeatedly
recognized Azerbaijan's right to that territory. Moreover, Armenia
has not so far dared to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh.
"But, as the saying goes, times are changing. On the threshold
of the Armenian president's visit to Moscow, Armenian FM [Edward
Nalbandian] said that 'the Nagorno-Karabakh people must have the
same rights to self-determination as any other people under the
sun,' that 'the principles and elements proposed by the co-chairs
and announced by Presidents Medvedev, Sarkozy and Obama at the three
summits in L'Aquila, Muskoka and Deauville confirm this very right'
and 'Nagorno-Karabakh's final status must be determined by a free
expression of will that would have an international legal force.'
"One more interesting reference: Mr. S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of
the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Research Professor at the Paul H.
Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins
University, says he does not place great hopes on the OSCE Minsk
Group. Despite the efforts by the parties concerned with settling
the conflict, motives and other factors necessary for progress in
the negotiations are lacking.
"We can disagree with Mr. Starr on this point. The Armenian side's
motives are obvious: maintaining the status quo until better times and
getting the settlement process to go on under the procedure established
by European law, which was enforced during the settlement of the Kosovo
conflict, rather than on the basis of international law practiced by
the UN.
"No progress is possible without major efforts by the United States,
says Mr. Starr. Much was expected from President Dmitri Medvede's
mediation efforts, but they failed. So it is time for the United
States to more actively deal with the South Caucasus problems. The
United States should more publicly defense the Caucasian states'
right to sovereignty, he adds.
"However, as Mr. Jennifer Walsh, Principal Director for Russia,
Ukraine, and Eurasia, Department of Defense, recently said, the
US policy in the region has practically nothing in common with the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. It is aimed at creating a base in the
South Caucasus because of the region being geographically close to
Iran and the countries that are potential WMD suppliers. However,
it is by no means fact that Azerbaijan is such a base. On the
other hand, during his recent visit to the region, French President
Nicolas Sarkozy outlined the principal vectors of European policy
when he called on Turkey to admit the Armenian Genocide 'before the
end of this year.' If Turkey continues its genocide denial policy,
France will have to amend its laws thereby criminalizing the denial
of Armenian massacres, he said.
"True, we can agree that President Dmitri Medvedev made tremendous
efforts to untangle the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, without, however,
any progress so far. The reason is, however, Moscow's own formula for
settling the conflict, without violating the national interests of
either Armenia or Azerbaijan. A different scenario - or allowing the
Western powers to lead the settlement process - will mean nothing but
recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. In future, Azerbaijan's
historians will puzzle over the question: how did Azerbaijan - the most
powerful South Caucasus country - happen to lose part of its territory
and who is responsible for that? The answer is clear even now, though."
Tert.am
25.10.11
Below is an article by the Russian political scientist Stanislav
Tarasov
"Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's first state visit to Russia is
a historic event. First of all, the statements the two leaders made
in Moscow are evidence thereof. Following his talks with his Armenian
counterpart Serzh Sargsyan, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev stated
that the bilateral trade turnover is expected to exceed US $1bn - an
increase against not only last year, but also the pre-crisis level. It
should be noted that, given the blockade imposed on Armenia because
of Nagorno-Karabakh, the figures are just fantastic.
"This factor, however, did not prevent Russian capital investments
in Armenia's economy. 'Russian capital investments in the Armenian
economy have exceeded US $2.8bn,' said President Dmitri Medvedev. 'We
are developing cooperation in such fields as energy, high technologies
and transport.' According to him, 'these are good signals.'
"The reports are not at all sensational. The Armenian president
stressed that he would like to see his country as a member of the
Customs Union and Eurasian Union, even though his country does not
border on any of the Customs Union member-states - to say nothing of
cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
However, the situation may prove different tomorrow. Everything
depends on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan re-affirmed Yerevan's commitment to the soonest settlement
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by only peaceful means, on the
basis of principles of international law that constitute a single
whole. What does it mean? The UN General Assembly has repeatedly
recognized Azerbaijan's right to that territory. Moreover, Armenia
has not so far dared to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh.
"But, as the saying goes, times are changing. On the threshold
of the Armenian president's visit to Moscow, Armenian FM [Edward
Nalbandian] said that 'the Nagorno-Karabakh people must have the
same rights to self-determination as any other people under the
sun,' that 'the principles and elements proposed by the co-chairs
and announced by Presidents Medvedev, Sarkozy and Obama at the three
summits in L'Aquila, Muskoka and Deauville confirm this very right'
and 'Nagorno-Karabakh's final status must be determined by a free
expression of will that would have an international legal force.'
"One more interesting reference: Mr. S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of
the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Research Professor at the Paul H.
Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins
University, says he does not place great hopes on the OSCE Minsk
Group. Despite the efforts by the parties concerned with settling
the conflict, motives and other factors necessary for progress in
the negotiations are lacking.
"We can disagree with Mr. Starr on this point. The Armenian side's
motives are obvious: maintaining the status quo until better times and
getting the settlement process to go on under the procedure established
by European law, which was enforced during the settlement of the Kosovo
conflict, rather than on the basis of international law practiced by
the UN.
"No progress is possible without major efforts by the United States,
says Mr. Starr. Much was expected from President Dmitri Medvede's
mediation efforts, but they failed. So it is time for the United
States to more actively deal with the South Caucasus problems. The
United States should more publicly defense the Caucasian states'
right to sovereignty, he adds.
"However, as Mr. Jennifer Walsh, Principal Director for Russia,
Ukraine, and Eurasia, Department of Defense, recently said, the
US policy in the region has practically nothing in common with the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. It is aimed at creating a base in the
South Caucasus because of the region being geographically close to
Iran and the countries that are potential WMD suppliers. However,
it is by no means fact that Azerbaijan is such a base. On the
other hand, during his recent visit to the region, French President
Nicolas Sarkozy outlined the principal vectors of European policy
when he called on Turkey to admit the Armenian Genocide 'before the
end of this year.' If Turkey continues its genocide denial policy,
France will have to amend its laws thereby criminalizing the denial
of Armenian massacres, he said.
"True, we can agree that President Dmitri Medvedev made tremendous
efforts to untangle the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, without, however,
any progress so far. The reason is, however, Moscow's own formula for
settling the conflict, without violating the national interests of
either Armenia or Azerbaijan. A different scenario - or allowing the
Western powers to lead the settlement process - will mean nothing but
recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. In future, Azerbaijan's
historians will puzzle over the question: how did Azerbaijan - the most
powerful South Caucasus country - happen to lose part of its territory
and who is responsible for that? The answer is clear even now, though."