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SHOULD THE CAUCASUS EXPECT A NEW WAR?
By Zaza Jgharkava
Georgia Today
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=9577
Oct 27 2011
Georgia
The dark clouds in the Caucasus are gathering over Karabakh this time.
Officials in Baku and Yerevan are accusing each other of status
quo violations.
With the increase in military budgets of Armenia and Azerbaijan set
as the backdrop, the argument about the inevitable outcome of war
is getting stronger and stronger, especially after the recent clash
that ensued on the border of Karabakh that ended claiming victims on
both sides.
With the growing confrontation, the position of officials in Tbilisi
is becoming more and more important. Georgia could play a crucial
role in the upcoming turmoil.
After the "football diplomacy" of the West fell flat and the agreement
reached in Switzerland was failed to be ratified in the parliaments of
Armenia and Turkey, the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation reloaded:
snipers have already killed tens of soldiers and officers on both
sides.
As the negotiations on peaceful resolution of the conflict bring
no results, it is not excluded that Baku "tests" Moscow- makes one
"shot"- one attack, to see what Moscow's reaction is.
If Baku sees that Russia is actively supporting its major ally in
the Caucasus - Armenia (which will probably be the case), it will
quit military actions and level the front line. However, then Baku
will take an anti-Russian position in issues most sensitive to Russia
(the trans-Caspian pipeline and the NATO air bridge to Afghanistan)
and if it is hesitating on the Nabucco project right now, it will
give it a green light later.
The Caucasian knot is even more complicated now after the Georgian
parliament decided to restrict air-space over Georgia for Russian
transport. Because of this, experts have started to discuss how Russia
will manage to supply military bases in Armenia. There is talk about
using the air space of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran.
If Russia uses the air space of Turkey, it will have to declare its
military cargoes and, therefore, make the transits transparent to
its theoretical or potential enemy. If it uses the space of Iran,
the latter will try to make the maximum use of this concession from
Russia or from Armenia. In this case, Russia will not allow Iran and
Armenia to move to closer cooperation without Russia.
When appearing on TV Kavkasia, a Georgian military expert Giorgi
Tavdgiride did not exclude that due to certain isolation of the
Gyumri base, if military actions start between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
Moscow will exercise military intervention on Georgia again and make
this step to punish it.
On this stage the situation is so "complicated" that it is almost
impossible to make any specific calculations. However, there are
several scenarios in the development of events.
As much as there is high probability that if a war erupts, Russia will
get involved in it, it is hard to imagine that Moscow chooses to fight
on two fronts and gives up the Georgian area. It would question its
presence in the region as Moscow knows that in case of total military
confrontation in the Caucasus, other big players in the region will
not suffice with only "being concerned" about it.
First of all, Turkey is a strategic partner of Azerbaijan and under
the Kars agreement has certain security obligations on the territory
of Georgia.
Taking all the factors into consideration an unanswered question
arises - is it truly in the interests of the Russian government to
provoke military confrontation between Baku and Yerevan?
As for Azerbaijan and Armenia, it is obvious that Baku has not made
a decision on starting the war yet. As for Yerevan, it looks like it
is very important for it to have at least a neutral Georgia (if not
an ally) behind it.
Tbilisi seems to do its best to preserve neutrality in the conflict
around Karabakh. The "confederation idea" with Azerbaijan voiced by
Tbilisi, is balanced with the opening of the Larsi way and Goderdzi
pass and so vital for Armenia.
The same impression is in terms of the flow of investments. No one is
blocking the Armenian capital in Georgia; the same for Azerbaijan,
which has been considered the second trading partner for Georgia
after Turkey.
By Zaza Jgharkava
Georgia Today
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=9577
Oct 27 2011
Georgia
The dark clouds in the Caucasus are gathering over Karabakh this time.
Officials in Baku and Yerevan are accusing each other of status
quo violations.
With the increase in military budgets of Armenia and Azerbaijan set
as the backdrop, the argument about the inevitable outcome of war
is getting stronger and stronger, especially after the recent clash
that ensued on the border of Karabakh that ended claiming victims on
both sides.
With the growing confrontation, the position of officials in Tbilisi
is becoming more and more important. Georgia could play a crucial
role in the upcoming turmoil.
After the "football diplomacy" of the West fell flat and the agreement
reached in Switzerland was failed to be ratified in the parliaments of
Armenia and Turkey, the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation reloaded:
snipers have already killed tens of soldiers and officers on both
sides.
As the negotiations on peaceful resolution of the conflict bring
no results, it is not excluded that Baku "tests" Moscow- makes one
"shot"- one attack, to see what Moscow's reaction is.
If Baku sees that Russia is actively supporting its major ally in
the Caucasus - Armenia (which will probably be the case), it will
quit military actions and level the front line. However, then Baku
will take an anti-Russian position in issues most sensitive to Russia
(the trans-Caspian pipeline and the NATO air bridge to Afghanistan)
and if it is hesitating on the Nabucco project right now, it will
give it a green light later.
The Caucasian knot is even more complicated now after the Georgian
parliament decided to restrict air-space over Georgia for Russian
transport. Because of this, experts have started to discuss how Russia
will manage to supply military bases in Armenia. There is talk about
using the air space of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran.
If Russia uses the air space of Turkey, it will have to declare its
military cargoes and, therefore, make the transits transparent to
its theoretical or potential enemy. If it uses the space of Iran,
the latter will try to make the maximum use of this concession from
Russia or from Armenia. In this case, Russia will not allow Iran and
Armenia to move to closer cooperation without Russia.
When appearing on TV Kavkasia, a Georgian military expert Giorgi
Tavdgiride did not exclude that due to certain isolation of the
Gyumri base, if military actions start between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
Moscow will exercise military intervention on Georgia again and make
this step to punish it.
On this stage the situation is so "complicated" that it is almost
impossible to make any specific calculations. However, there are
several scenarios in the development of events.
As much as there is high probability that if a war erupts, Russia will
get involved in it, it is hard to imagine that Moscow chooses to fight
on two fronts and gives up the Georgian area. It would question its
presence in the region as Moscow knows that in case of total military
confrontation in the Caucasus, other big players in the region will
not suffice with only "being concerned" about it.
First of all, Turkey is a strategic partner of Azerbaijan and under
the Kars agreement has certain security obligations on the territory
of Georgia.
Taking all the factors into consideration an unanswered question
arises - is it truly in the interests of the Russian government to
provoke military confrontation between Baku and Yerevan?
As for Azerbaijan and Armenia, it is obvious that Baku has not made
a decision on starting the war yet. As for Yerevan, it looks like it
is very important for it to have at least a neutral Georgia (if not
an ally) behind it.
Tbilisi seems to do its best to preserve neutrality in the conflict
around Karabakh. The "confederation idea" with Azerbaijan voiced by
Tbilisi, is balanced with the opening of the Larsi way and Goderdzi
pass and so vital for Armenia.
The same impression is in terms of the flow of investments. No one is
blocking the Armenian capital in Georgia; the same for Azerbaijan,
which has been considered the second trading partner for Georgia
after Turkey.