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KARABAKH TRUCE 'MAY COLLAPSE'
news.az
Sept 1 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews F. Stephen Larrabee, distinguished chair in European
security at the RAND Corporation's Washington Office.
Do you think that the "Georgian problem" is again damaging relations
between the West and Russia as it did after the August war in 2008?
Georgia is not as big an issue as it was at the time of the August
2008 war because the status quo is hard to change. South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, which are legally part of Georgia, have become de facto
satellites of Russia. This situation cannot be changed except by
military means. But no one is prepared to use force to change the
new status quo so there is stalemate. But Georgia and the West do
recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as separate countries.
How did the August war change the US role in the South Caucasus? There
is a view that since the war America has become less active here.
The Bush administration pursued an active policy towards the western
periphery of the post-Soviet space. Georgia was seen as poster
child for the administration's democracy promotion program. The
Obama administration, by contrast has been much more cautious and
circumspect in its approach to the expansion of Western interests
into the western periphery of the post-Soviet space. While the door
to Georgian and Ukrainian membership in NATO has been kept open
rhetorically, in practice membership for both countries has been put
on hold and subordinated to the administrationšs effort to "reset"
relations with Moscow.
How would you estimate the current situation in the South Caucasus?
How realistic is the threat of a new war here?
The main threat is that the uneasy truce between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh may collapse and lead to a new outbreak
of violence.
I think the situation is very dangerous. The negotiations over
Nagorno-Karabakh are stalled. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to
build up its military. There is a danger that if the negotiations
don't begin to make some serious progress, Azerbaijan may decide to
use force to retake the areas of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenia.
Do you expect a "Georgian scenario" in the case of Karabakh?
If you mean that Russia provokes a war in order to occupy
Nagorno-Karabakh, I don't think that is likely. If you mean that the
relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia deteriorates and at some
point leads to an outbreak of war, that is much more likely.
From: Baghdasarian
news.az
Sept 1 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews F. Stephen Larrabee, distinguished chair in European
security at the RAND Corporation's Washington Office.
Do you think that the "Georgian problem" is again damaging relations
between the West and Russia as it did after the August war in 2008?
Georgia is not as big an issue as it was at the time of the August
2008 war because the status quo is hard to change. South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, which are legally part of Georgia, have become de facto
satellites of Russia. This situation cannot be changed except by
military means. But no one is prepared to use force to change the
new status quo so there is stalemate. But Georgia and the West do
recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as separate countries.
How did the August war change the US role in the South Caucasus? There
is a view that since the war America has become less active here.
The Bush administration pursued an active policy towards the western
periphery of the post-Soviet space. Georgia was seen as poster
child for the administration's democracy promotion program. The
Obama administration, by contrast has been much more cautious and
circumspect in its approach to the expansion of Western interests
into the western periphery of the post-Soviet space. While the door
to Georgian and Ukrainian membership in NATO has been kept open
rhetorically, in practice membership for both countries has been put
on hold and subordinated to the administrationšs effort to "reset"
relations with Moscow.
How would you estimate the current situation in the South Caucasus?
How realistic is the threat of a new war here?
The main threat is that the uneasy truce between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh may collapse and lead to a new outbreak
of violence.
I think the situation is very dangerous. The negotiations over
Nagorno-Karabakh are stalled. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to
build up its military. There is a danger that if the negotiations
don't begin to make some serious progress, Azerbaijan may decide to
use force to retake the areas of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenia.
Do you expect a "Georgian scenario" in the case of Karabakh?
If you mean that Russia provokes a war in order to occupy
Nagorno-Karabakh, I don't think that is likely. If you mean that the
relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia deteriorates and at some
point leads to an outbreak of war, that is much more likely.
From: Baghdasarian