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'NO COMMON MECHANISM' CAN BE USED TO TACKLE SEPARATISM
news.az
Sept 1 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews David Harris, chief executive of Canadian analytical
centre Foresight Canada.
Do you think that the post-Soviet space is an arena of confrontation
or collaboration at the moment?
There are several "post-Soviet" "spaces". There are political,
economic, security, cultural and historic spaces. These mesh, for
better or worse, and change over time, with where one is. There are
the "stans" - a terrible Western term, the South Caucasus, the North
Caucasus, the Baltic three, and - possibly most influentially - the
"East Europe" countries, some of which are now in the EU, and/or NATO.
All these spaces are potential arenas for either collaboration or
confrontation. This is the challenge.
In my view, the key is to understand the wider context - the
circumstances of the global space - and then (probably based on the
output of strategic foresight exercises) to select some - and only
some - of the "spaces" for effort that is most likely to pay dividends
of increasing collaboration and less confrontation.
Did the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008 make the South Caucasus
and its problems more known in the world?
Yes, "more known", but more incompletely known. My experience since
2008 is that more people know more about Georgia and South Ossetia,
but that the major part of that increase focuses only on Georgian
leadership and Russian military superiority.
Almost all my VERY educated friends "know" about the 2008 war, but
do not know where it happened, geographically (until I describe it)
and have no conception of the South Caucasus as including Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What are Canadian interests in the South Caucasus?
Nearly zero; based on my experience and the current political and
economic situation and perceptions in Canada. If anything, the Armenian
diaspora (especially in the United States) plays by far the largest
role in "interests". These of course focus on the conflict in, over
and around Nagorno-Karabakh.
What should be done to enhance the Canadian presence (economic,
political etc.) in this region?
Nothing "should" be done.
The Minsk Group is, on many planes, a constraint on Canadian (and
other potentially positive) presence.
Attention - and therefrom presence - needs to be attracted. At the
risk of self-promotion, I think the workshops I facilitated in May,
and the conditions under which they were arranged and carried out, was
an example of a way to demonstrate that "progress" - not solutions -
can be promoted by "others".
The problem of separatism is very well known in Canada and Azerbaijan.
Is it possible to create a common mechanism to solve this problem in
different parts of the world?
Absolutely not. Not is there NOT a "common mechanism" for "different
parts of the world", any attempt to impose such commonality on such
incredible variety would almost certainly bring down what- or who-ever
attempted it.
news.az
Sept 1 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews David Harris, chief executive of Canadian analytical
centre Foresight Canada.
Do you think that the post-Soviet space is an arena of confrontation
or collaboration at the moment?
There are several "post-Soviet" "spaces". There are political,
economic, security, cultural and historic spaces. These mesh, for
better or worse, and change over time, with where one is. There are
the "stans" - a terrible Western term, the South Caucasus, the North
Caucasus, the Baltic three, and - possibly most influentially - the
"East Europe" countries, some of which are now in the EU, and/or NATO.
All these spaces are potential arenas for either collaboration or
confrontation. This is the challenge.
In my view, the key is to understand the wider context - the
circumstances of the global space - and then (probably based on the
output of strategic foresight exercises) to select some - and only
some - of the "spaces" for effort that is most likely to pay dividends
of increasing collaboration and less confrontation.
Did the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008 make the South Caucasus
and its problems more known in the world?
Yes, "more known", but more incompletely known. My experience since
2008 is that more people know more about Georgia and South Ossetia,
but that the major part of that increase focuses only on Georgian
leadership and Russian military superiority.
Almost all my VERY educated friends "know" about the 2008 war, but
do not know where it happened, geographically (until I describe it)
and have no conception of the South Caucasus as including Georgia,
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What are Canadian interests in the South Caucasus?
Nearly zero; based on my experience and the current political and
economic situation and perceptions in Canada. If anything, the Armenian
diaspora (especially in the United States) plays by far the largest
role in "interests". These of course focus on the conflict in, over
and around Nagorno-Karabakh.
What should be done to enhance the Canadian presence (economic,
political etc.) in this region?
Nothing "should" be done.
The Minsk Group is, on many planes, a constraint on Canadian (and
other potentially positive) presence.
Attention - and therefrom presence - needs to be attracted. At the
risk of self-promotion, I think the workshops I facilitated in May,
and the conditions under which they were arranged and carried out, was
an example of a way to demonstrate that "progress" - not solutions -
can be promoted by "others".
The problem of separatism is very well known in Canada and Azerbaijan.
Is it possible to create a common mechanism to solve this problem in
different parts of the world?
Absolutely not. Not is there NOT a "common mechanism" for "different
parts of the world", any attempt to impose such commonality on such
incredible variety would almost certainly bring down what- or who-ever
attempted it.