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"IT IS BETTER TO CONDUCT ENDLESS NEGOTIATIONS"
by Artem Kobzev
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY
August 10, 2011 Wednesday
Russia
DMITRY MEDVEDEV WILL TRY TO RESET THE KARABAKH REGULATION AT A
MEETING WITH ILHAM ALIYEV; Dmitry Medvedev will meet with President of
Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in Sochi. The main topic of the meeting will
be regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. If the negotiations
take place successfully, meeting of Medvedev and President of Armenia
Serzh Sergsian will probably be the next step and it may be followed
by a trilateral summit.
Dmitry Medvedev will meet with President of Azerbaijan Ilham
Aliyev in Sochi. The main topic of the meeting will be regulation
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. If the negotiations take place
successfully, meeting of Medvedev and President of Armenia Serzh
Sergsian will probably be the next step and it may be followed by a
trilateral summit.
Last time, Medvedev, Sargsian and Aliyev met at the end of June in
Kazan where there was another round of trilateral negotiations. The
summit in the capital city of Tatarstan had no results and the
parties did not sign the document that had to become the "road map"
of regulation in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is based mostly on the so-called
Madrid principles proposed by the co-chair countries of the Minsk OSCE
group (Russia, France, US) as an algorithm for solving of the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan is to be given the districts of the
so-called security zone around Nagorno-Karabakh, an international
peacekeeping operation should begin in the conflict zone, refugees
receive a possibility to come back and afterwards there is a "legally
binding referendum" about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Both parties believe that some of the clauses of the document
contradict each other and their signing in such form may trigger a
serious outburst of public discontent in both countries and hence
the summit in Kazan has ended without sensations.
Literally on the next day after completion of the summit Armenia and
Azerbaijan exchanged accusations blaming each other for the failure
of the negotiations. According to Foreign Minister of Armenia Edvard
Nalbandian, the parties failed to come to an agreement because
at the latest moment "Baku represented about ten amendments." His
Azerbaijani colleague responded that it were Armenians who demanded
too many concessions." Aliyev added fuel to the fire personally. He
said that occupation of 20% of the Azerbaijani land by Armenia was
a temporary phenomenon and that territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
would be restored by "any method."
According to sources of Moskovskie Novosti, big expectations from
the meeting in Kazan and its follow-up failure were explained by the
fact that Russian and Armenian diplomats overestimated the scale of
the political compromises with which Baku could agree. Medvedev had
to correct mistakes of the subordinates urgently. He sent a letter
to Aliyev and Sargsian where he outlined his vision of the Karabakh
regulation. According to available information, the Russian President
considered some arguments of the Azerbaijani party sensible. So,
it was not surprising that Azerbaijan was the first to respond to
this signal. In the middle if July, Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan
Elyar Mamedyarov arrived to Moscow and handed the response message
from Aliyev over to Sergei Lavrov. Along with this, he refused to
comment on its content.
The Armenian party was even more verbose. Armen Arzumanian, press
secretary of the Armenian President, said, "The response letter of
President of Armenia Serzh Sargsian was already sent to President of
Russia Dmitry Medvedev."
Alexei Vlasov, general director of the information and analytical
center of the MGU for studying of the post-Soviet space, said, "There
is information that the Azerbaijani party has agreed with the proposals
fixed in the letter of Medvedev. Along with this, it is not known what
Sargsian has answered to his message." Vlasov believes that that is
why the Russian President meets with the Azerbaijani colleague first
and not with the Armenian one. According to the political scientist,
it has been said earlier that the next trilateral meeting will take
place only after Moscow receives guarantees that all parties of the
conflict are ready to sign a document that it has been planned to sign
in Kazan. If negotiations with Aliyev take place successful, meeting
of Medvedev and Sergsian should become the next step according to the
logic of the political process. It will be followed up by a trilateral
meeting at the end of August or at the beginning of September and
signing of the corrected and modified "road map." Vlasov concludes,
"If this is so, it is possible to say that the parties reach a new
round of the negotiation process."
Other experts, for example, invited researcher of the center of
strategic and international research in Washington Sergei Markedonov,
believe that after a certain surge in activeness in the attempts of
regulation of the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh in the trilateral format
under the aegis of Moscow a new dead end starts appearing finally.
First, this happens because the parties (and Nagorno-Karabakh) are
not ready to agree with the entire set of proposals of the "road map."
Second, even if it is signed there will be inevitable difficulties
in real implementation of its paragraphs.
In his interview on August 4 Medvedev reiterated that events of
August of 2008 should become a lesson for Armenia and Azerbaijan. The
President said, "It is better to conduct endless negotiations about
the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh than to spend these five military days."
by Artem Kobzev
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY
August 10, 2011 Wednesday
Russia
DMITRY MEDVEDEV WILL TRY TO RESET THE KARABAKH REGULATION AT A
MEETING WITH ILHAM ALIYEV; Dmitry Medvedev will meet with President of
Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in Sochi. The main topic of the meeting will
be regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. If the negotiations
take place successfully, meeting of Medvedev and President of Armenia
Serzh Sergsian will probably be the next step and it may be followed
by a trilateral summit.
Dmitry Medvedev will meet with President of Azerbaijan Ilham
Aliyev in Sochi. The main topic of the meeting will be regulation
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. If the negotiations take place
successfully, meeting of Medvedev and President of Armenia Serzh
Sergsian will probably be the next step and it may be followed by a
trilateral summit.
Last time, Medvedev, Sargsian and Aliyev met at the end of June in
Kazan where there was another round of trilateral negotiations. The
summit in the capital city of Tatarstan had no results and the
parties did not sign the document that had to become the "road map"
of regulation in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is based mostly on the so-called
Madrid principles proposed by the co-chair countries of the Minsk OSCE
group (Russia, France, US) as an algorithm for solving of the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan is to be given the districts of the
so-called security zone around Nagorno-Karabakh, an international
peacekeeping operation should begin in the conflict zone, refugees
receive a possibility to come back and afterwards there is a "legally
binding referendum" about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Both parties believe that some of the clauses of the document
contradict each other and their signing in such form may trigger a
serious outburst of public discontent in both countries and hence
the summit in Kazan has ended without sensations.
Literally on the next day after completion of the summit Armenia and
Azerbaijan exchanged accusations blaming each other for the failure
of the negotiations. According to Foreign Minister of Armenia Edvard
Nalbandian, the parties failed to come to an agreement because
at the latest moment "Baku represented about ten amendments." His
Azerbaijani colleague responded that it were Armenians who demanded
too many concessions." Aliyev added fuel to the fire personally. He
said that occupation of 20% of the Azerbaijani land by Armenia was
a temporary phenomenon and that territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
would be restored by "any method."
According to sources of Moskovskie Novosti, big expectations from
the meeting in Kazan and its follow-up failure were explained by the
fact that Russian and Armenian diplomats overestimated the scale of
the political compromises with which Baku could agree. Medvedev had
to correct mistakes of the subordinates urgently. He sent a letter
to Aliyev and Sargsian where he outlined his vision of the Karabakh
regulation. According to available information, the Russian President
considered some arguments of the Azerbaijani party sensible. So,
it was not surprising that Azerbaijan was the first to respond to
this signal. In the middle if July, Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan
Elyar Mamedyarov arrived to Moscow and handed the response message
from Aliyev over to Sergei Lavrov. Along with this, he refused to
comment on its content.
The Armenian party was even more verbose. Armen Arzumanian, press
secretary of the Armenian President, said, "The response letter of
President of Armenia Serzh Sargsian was already sent to President of
Russia Dmitry Medvedev."
Alexei Vlasov, general director of the information and analytical
center of the MGU for studying of the post-Soviet space, said, "There
is information that the Azerbaijani party has agreed with the proposals
fixed in the letter of Medvedev. Along with this, it is not known what
Sargsian has answered to his message." Vlasov believes that that is
why the Russian President meets with the Azerbaijani colleague first
and not with the Armenian one. According to the political scientist,
it has been said earlier that the next trilateral meeting will take
place only after Moscow receives guarantees that all parties of the
conflict are ready to sign a document that it has been planned to sign
in Kazan. If negotiations with Aliyev take place successful, meeting
of Medvedev and Sergsian should become the next step according to the
logic of the political process. It will be followed up by a trilateral
meeting at the end of August or at the beginning of September and
signing of the corrected and modified "road map." Vlasov concludes,
"If this is so, it is possible to say that the parties reach a new
round of the negotiation process."
Other experts, for example, invited researcher of the center of
strategic and international research in Washington Sergei Markedonov,
believe that after a certain surge in activeness in the attempts of
regulation of the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh in the trilateral format
under the aegis of Moscow a new dead end starts appearing finally.
First, this happens because the parties (and Nagorno-Karabakh) are
not ready to agree with the entire set of proposals of the "road map."
Second, even if it is signed there will be inevitable difficulties
in real implementation of its paragraphs.
In his interview on August 4 Medvedev reiterated that events of
August of 2008 should become a lesson for Armenia and Azerbaijan. The
President said, "It is better to conduct endless negotiations about
the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh than to spend these five military days."