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THE DYNAMICS AND TENDENCY OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA AND THE US: CONCEPTUAL ANALYSIS
Sergey Minasyan
http://noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=5976
01.09.2011
The Head of the Department of the Political Studies at the Caucasus
Institute, Political Scientist, Candidate of Historical Sciences
Foreign-policy relations with the key actors of the global politics
constantly demand conceptual reconsideration and adjustment depending
on the emerging regional conjuncture and global processes. The
relations of Armenia and the US, with all their many-sidedness and
deep involvement of the political elite and Diaspora organizations,
are not the exclusion. This article is an attempt of a brief conceptual
analysis of the main trends and dynamics of the relations between
two countries in different areas in order to outline their development.
The relations with the United States are important dimension of the
Armenian foreign policy, which has undergone serious transformations
for the recent two decades. The relations of two countries eagerly
develop particularly in the following directions:
Political cooperation (also in the context of the relations of Armenia
with Russia, China and Iran); Involvement of the US in the processes
of the state formation, reforming and promotion of the processes of
democratization in Armenia (including the role of the US in mending
contacts between the authorities and oppositional political powers in
Armenia). Economics connections (especially taking into consideration
the economic and humanitarian aid delivered by the US), Humanitarian
contacts (the factor of numerous Armenian Diaspora in the US),
Cooperation in the sphere of security and military and political
relations (including military and technical support to the armed
forces of the Republic of Armenia and participation of the Armenian
peacekeepers in the international operations under aegis of the US),
~URegional cooperation and involvement in the settlement of the
conflicts (taking into consideration the mediatory role of the US
as co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group on Karabakh conflict settlement
and considerable contribution of Washington into the process of the
Armenian-Turkish rapprochement). Dynamics of bilateral relations Back
in the late 1980s the US actively supported future leaders of Armenia
in their struggle against the USSR authorities. The struggle of the
Armenians from Karabakh for separation from the Soviet Azerbaijan also
received unconditional support of the United States which considered it
as a part of "the struggle of the Soviet peoples against the communist
regime". The Congress even passed several resolutions supporting the
Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. In October 1992 the US Congress passed
Amendment #907 to "Freedom Support Act" which prohibited the government
of the US to deliver military or any other support to Azerbaijan until
the later took measures to raising off all the blockades and stop
using any offensive actions in regard to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
But in the second half of the 1990s the US adjusted its approaches
to the region of the South Caucasus, which was also connected with
the growing interest of the US in Azerbaijan after conclusion of
the agreements on participation of the western oil companies in the
development of the Caspian energy resources. After the terrorist attack
on 9/11 the 907 Amendment was suspended within the framework of the
war on international terrorism and the US initiated eager military
cooperation with Azerbaijan.
However, despite the growing interest of Washington towards energy
resources and geographic location of Azerbaijan, the US policy towards
Armenia and Azerbaijan still remains asymmetrical. Per head Armenia
is currently one of the biggest recipients of direct American support
which has constituted about $2 billion for recent two decades. The US
annually allot financial means to Nagorno-Karabakh too (till 2011 the
Congress has allotted about $10 million) thus being the only state in
the world (besides Armenia) which renders direct financial assistance
to Karabakh. The US was also the main sponsor of the Armenian-Turkish
"football diplomacy" which was called to normalize the relations
between Yerevan and Ankara and to help Armenia to overcome partial
communication blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Besides, being one
of the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs, the US is actively involved in
the negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Very often pro-Armenian policy of Washington in the South Caucasus
is explained by the activity of the influential pro-Armenian lobby
in the US. This lobby is strong in terms both of its organization
and experience as well as by the fact the US citizens of the Armenian
decent constitute a considerable percentage of the population of some
states and can vote consolidated thus influencing the US policy in our
region. This factor will actualize especially taking into consideration
upcoming presidential elections in the US in 2012. But predictability
of the Armenian foreign policy in the eyes of the US, especially as
compared with other regional actors, is also a crucial factor which
makes Armenia a convenient and long-term partner for Washington.
Tendency of development In the near terms the main prospects of
development of the relations of Armenia with the US, as it seems, will
be connected with the domestic political processes in Armenia, regional
problems and settlement of the conflicts, military and political
cooperation and programmes of assistance and economic cooperation.
Influence of the US on domestic political processes. The United States
will continue influencing the organization of the dialogue between the
government and oppositional forces, and first of all with the Armenian
National Congress, headed by the first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan,
by asserting moderate pressure on both the government and opposition.
At the same time the American factor will be rather important within
the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia in 2012
in order to hold them as open as possible. But under any circumstances
there will be no undisguised involvement of the US in the domestic
political processes in Armenia, such as "coloured revolutions" in
the spirit of the republican administrations of Bush.
By the way, it is already known that the incumbent US ambassador to
Armenia Mary Jovanovich who was the ambassador to Kirgizstan before
her appointment in Yerevan (also during the well known events and
change of the authorities in that Central Asian republic) will soon
leave her post. In due time the radical circles in Armenia connected
with her name carrying out new "colour revolution". As it is supposed
John Heffern - Deputy Chief of Mission at USNATO, specialist on
South-East Asia, China and Japan - will be appointed to the post
of the ambassador. This also proves to some extent that Armenia has
shifted on the scale of the priorities of the American administration
from the category of the countries, which are potential subjects for
various "colour revolutions" to the category of states with which the
US intends to develop its relations based on the pragmatic coincidence
of the balance of the interests.
Armenian-American relations in the regional context. As for the
regional policy issues the Armenian-American relations will, at
least, preserve current format of mutual cooperation. The role of
Armenia in the American regional policy is greatly explained by the
pragmatic priorities of Washington in the relations with Russia,
Iran and Turkey, i.e. with the countries for which the Armenian
factor is rather important. After the drop of the interest towards
the South Caucasus by the Obama democrat administration and "reload"
of the Russian-American relations in 2009-2010, now it is much easier
for Armenia to carry out balanced policy in its relations with Russia
and US. The US takes the fact of the Armenian-Russian military and
political partnership and the fact of the dislocation of the Russian
military base in Armenia rather calmly. The American leadership most
probably realize that Armenia can efficiently cooperate with the US
in its regional policy, including military and political sphere and
security issues, even taking into consideration the presence of the
Russian military base on the Armenian territory.
A similar situation is with the approach of the US to the cooperation
between Armenia and Iran on different issues. At the same time
Washington follows rather attentively and alerted after the development
of the Armenian-Iranian relations in the sphere of security in order
not to allow transit of the weapons and critical materials through the
territory of Armenia to Iran. But the US understands the importance
of Iran as the second after Georgia communication and transit partner
of Armenia which is under blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan. That is
the reason why the development of economic and energy projects between
Yerevan and Tehran does not cause serious concern of the US. On this
account no serious changes or negative steps in regard to Armenia
in the light of the Armenian-Iranian relations is expected in the
foreseeable future.
Armenian-American relations and the settlement of the regional
conflicts. In the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict the
US will continue its eager activity within the format of the OSCE
Minsk group in a close dialogue with two other co-chairs - Russia
and France. There are no special or accelerated initiatives by
Washington in the given direction expected in the foreseeable future;
all the actions by the US will be directed to maintaining armistice
and not allowing restoration of the military actions in the zone
of the Karabakh conflict by Azerbaijan. The current situation in
the conflict zone meets interests of both US and Russia and France
(which also represents in the OSCE MG the EU).
At the same time the US may promote the Armenian-Turkish process which,
though being frozen at given moment, has a potential for resuming. No
progress can be expected till the parliamentary elections in Turkey in
June, but in autumn 2011 possibly some shifts in the Armenian-Turkish
dialogue may take place, including with the assistance of Washington.
Cooperation in the sphere of security and military and political
relations. Some kind of activization in military and political contacts
and cooperation in the sphere of security is expected. After 9/11
the US Congress raised a ban on granting military assistance and
cooperation to Armenia and Azerbaijan. After that the US annually
allots means to Armenia (on average from $3 to $5 million annually)
on military purposes. The means are allotted within the framework
of the American IMET (International Military Education and Training)
programme.
Those means are mostly spent on programmes of military education
(including preparation of the Armenian militaries for the participation
in peacemaking operations in Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan), creation of
the Mine Cleaning Center, language and medical courses and etc. The
exclusion is the procurement of the American communication means
for using them in the Armed Forces of the RA. In the months to come,
i.e. in the autumn 2011, Armenia plans to enlarge its peacekeepers'
contingent in Afghanistan (from 45 to 130 people, with the possibility
to increase the number of the Armenian peacekeepers up to 260 people).
Programmes of economic cooperation and financial aid. The programmes
of financial and economic support to Armenia by the US will also be
continued though this support has been considerably cut off after the
domestic political processes in Armenia in March 2008, especially in
the line of "Millennium Challenge - Armenia" programme. This programme
will last till September 30, 2011 and by that time the investments of
the fund into the agriculture of Armenia and irrigation programme will
be about $180 million. The programmes of the financial assistance are
also implemented within the frameworks of other American programmes
as well.
At the same time the incumbent US ambassador stated that the funding
(including "Millennium Challenges" programme) will probably be
resumed, "if the authorities of Armenia work on the correction of the
shortcomings". Most probably, here they mean the expectations of the
US on the arrangement of the parliamentary elections in Armenia in
spring 2012 on a decent level. In case of holding successful elections
which would receive a good rating of the international structures,
funding by the US, most probably, will be increased.
"GLOBUS Energy and Regional Security", Issue 4, 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another materials of author
~UPOSSIBILITIES OF INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH
CONFLICT: MYTHS AND REALITIES[14.02.2011] ~UARMENIAN - GEORGIAN
RELATIONS AFTER "FIVE DAYS" WAR[15.10.2009] ~UARMENIA-TURKEY: NEW
POLITICAL PHASE? [14.05.2009] ~USPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ON
JANUARY 5, 2008 IN GEORGIA: A VIEW FROM JAVAKHQ[07.02.2008]
Sergey Minasyan
http://noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=5976
01.09.2011
The Head of the Department of the Political Studies at the Caucasus
Institute, Political Scientist, Candidate of Historical Sciences
Foreign-policy relations with the key actors of the global politics
constantly demand conceptual reconsideration and adjustment depending
on the emerging regional conjuncture and global processes. The
relations of Armenia and the US, with all their many-sidedness and
deep involvement of the political elite and Diaspora organizations,
are not the exclusion. This article is an attempt of a brief conceptual
analysis of the main trends and dynamics of the relations between
two countries in different areas in order to outline their development.
The relations with the United States are important dimension of the
Armenian foreign policy, which has undergone serious transformations
for the recent two decades. The relations of two countries eagerly
develop particularly in the following directions:
Political cooperation (also in the context of the relations of Armenia
with Russia, China and Iran); Involvement of the US in the processes
of the state formation, reforming and promotion of the processes of
democratization in Armenia (including the role of the US in mending
contacts between the authorities and oppositional political powers in
Armenia). Economics connections (especially taking into consideration
the economic and humanitarian aid delivered by the US), Humanitarian
contacts (the factor of numerous Armenian Diaspora in the US),
Cooperation in the sphere of security and military and political
relations (including military and technical support to the armed
forces of the Republic of Armenia and participation of the Armenian
peacekeepers in the international operations under aegis of the US),
~URegional cooperation and involvement in the settlement of the
conflicts (taking into consideration the mediatory role of the US
as co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group on Karabakh conflict settlement
and considerable contribution of Washington into the process of the
Armenian-Turkish rapprochement). Dynamics of bilateral relations Back
in the late 1980s the US actively supported future leaders of Armenia
in their struggle against the USSR authorities. The struggle of the
Armenians from Karabakh for separation from the Soviet Azerbaijan also
received unconditional support of the United States which considered it
as a part of "the struggle of the Soviet peoples against the communist
regime". The Congress even passed several resolutions supporting the
Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. In October 1992 the US Congress passed
Amendment #907 to "Freedom Support Act" which prohibited the government
of the US to deliver military or any other support to Azerbaijan until
the later took measures to raising off all the blockades and stop
using any offensive actions in regard to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
But in the second half of the 1990s the US adjusted its approaches
to the region of the South Caucasus, which was also connected with
the growing interest of the US in Azerbaijan after conclusion of
the agreements on participation of the western oil companies in the
development of the Caspian energy resources. After the terrorist attack
on 9/11 the 907 Amendment was suspended within the framework of the
war on international terrorism and the US initiated eager military
cooperation with Azerbaijan.
However, despite the growing interest of Washington towards energy
resources and geographic location of Azerbaijan, the US policy towards
Armenia and Azerbaijan still remains asymmetrical. Per head Armenia
is currently one of the biggest recipients of direct American support
which has constituted about $2 billion for recent two decades. The US
annually allot financial means to Nagorno-Karabakh too (till 2011 the
Congress has allotted about $10 million) thus being the only state in
the world (besides Armenia) which renders direct financial assistance
to Karabakh. The US was also the main sponsor of the Armenian-Turkish
"football diplomacy" which was called to normalize the relations
between Yerevan and Ankara and to help Armenia to overcome partial
communication blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Besides, being one
of the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs, the US is actively involved in
the negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Very often pro-Armenian policy of Washington in the South Caucasus
is explained by the activity of the influential pro-Armenian lobby
in the US. This lobby is strong in terms both of its organization
and experience as well as by the fact the US citizens of the Armenian
decent constitute a considerable percentage of the population of some
states and can vote consolidated thus influencing the US policy in our
region. This factor will actualize especially taking into consideration
upcoming presidential elections in the US in 2012. But predictability
of the Armenian foreign policy in the eyes of the US, especially as
compared with other regional actors, is also a crucial factor which
makes Armenia a convenient and long-term partner for Washington.
Tendency of development In the near terms the main prospects of
development of the relations of Armenia with the US, as it seems, will
be connected with the domestic political processes in Armenia, regional
problems and settlement of the conflicts, military and political
cooperation and programmes of assistance and economic cooperation.
Influence of the US on domestic political processes. The United States
will continue influencing the organization of the dialogue between the
government and oppositional forces, and first of all with the Armenian
National Congress, headed by the first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan,
by asserting moderate pressure on both the government and opposition.
At the same time the American factor will be rather important within
the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia in 2012
in order to hold them as open as possible. But under any circumstances
there will be no undisguised involvement of the US in the domestic
political processes in Armenia, such as "coloured revolutions" in
the spirit of the republican administrations of Bush.
By the way, it is already known that the incumbent US ambassador to
Armenia Mary Jovanovich who was the ambassador to Kirgizstan before
her appointment in Yerevan (also during the well known events and
change of the authorities in that Central Asian republic) will soon
leave her post. In due time the radical circles in Armenia connected
with her name carrying out new "colour revolution". As it is supposed
John Heffern - Deputy Chief of Mission at USNATO, specialist on
South-East Asia, China and Japan - will be appointed to the post
of the ambassador. This also proves to some extent that Armenia has
shifted on the scale of the priorities of the American administration
from the category of the countries, which are potential subjects for
various "colour revolutions" to the category of states with which the
US intends to develop its relations based on the pragmatic coincidence
of the balance of the interests.
Armenian-American relations in the regional context. As for the
regional policy issues the Armenian-American relations will, at
least, preserve current format of mutual cooperation. The role of
Armenia in the American regional policy is greatly explained by the
pragmatic priorities of Washington in the relations with Russia,
Iran and Turkey, i.e. with the countries for which the Armenian
factor is rather important. After the drop of the interest towards
the South Caucasus by the Obama democrat administration and "reload"
of the Russian-American relations in 2009-2010, now it is much easier
for Armenia to carry out balanced policy in its relations with Russia
and US. The US takes the fact of the Armenian-Russian military and
political partnership and the fact of the dislocation of the Russian
military base in Armenia rather calmly. The American leadership most
probably realize that Armenia can efficiently cooperate with the US
in its regional policy, including military and political sphere and
security issues, even taking into consideration the presence of the
Russian military base on the Armenian territory.
A similar situation is with the approach of the US to the cooperation
between Armenia and Iran on different issues. At the same time
Washington follows rather attentively and alerted after the development
of the Armenian-Iranian relations in the sphere of security in order
not to allow transit of the weapons and critical materials through the
territory of Armenia to Iran. But the US understands the importance
of Iran as the second after Georgia communication and transit partner
of Armenia which is under blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan. That is
the reason why the development of economic and energy projects between
Yerevan and Tehran does not cause serious concern of the US. On this
account no serious changes or negative steps in regard to Armenia
in the light of the Armenian-Iranian relations is expected in the
foreseeable future.
Armenian-American relations and the settlement of the regional
conflicts. In the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict the
US will continue its eager activity within the format of the OSCE
Minsk group in a close dialogue with two other co-chairs - Russia
and France. There are no special or accelerated initiatives by
Washington in the given direction expected in the foreseeable future;
all the actions by the US will be directed to maintaining armistice
and not allowing restoration of the military actions in the zone
of the Karabakh conflict by Azerbaijan. The current situation in
the conflict zone meets interests of both US and Russia and France
(which also represents in the OSCE MG the EU).
At the same time the US may promote the Armenian-Turkish process which,
though being frozen at given moment, has a potential for resuming. No
progress can be expected till the parliamentary elections in Turkey in
June, but in autumn 2011 possibly some shifts in the Armenian-Turkish
dialogue may take place, including with the assistance of Washington.
Cooperation in the sphere of security and military and political
relations. Some kind of activization in military and political contacts
and cooperation in the sphere of security is expected. After 9/11
the US Congress raised a ban on granting military assistance and
cooperation to Armenia and Azerbaijan. After that the US annually
allots means to Armenia (on average from $3 to $5 million annually)
on military purposes. The means are allotted within the framework
of the American IMET (International Military Education and Training)
programme.
Those means are mostly spent on programmes of military education
(including preparation of the Armenian militaries for the participation
in peacemaking operations in Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan), creation of
the Mine Cleaning Center, language and medical courses and etc. The
exclusion is the procurement of the American communication means
for using them in the Armed Forces of the RA. In the months to come,
i.e. in the autumn 2011, Armenia plans to enlarge its peacekeepers'
contingent in Afghanistan (from 45 to 130 people, with the possibility
to increase the number of the Armenian peacekeepers up to 260 people).
Programmes of economic cooperation and financial aid. The programmes
of financial and economic support to Armenia by the US will also be
continued though this support has been considerably cut off after the
domestic political processes in Armenia in March 2008, especially in
the line of "Millennium Challenge - Armenia" programme. This programme
will last till September 30, 2011 and by that time the investments of
the fund into the agriculture of Armenia and irrigation programme will
be about $180 million. The programmes of the financial assistance are
also implemented within the frameworks of other American programmes
as well.
At the same time the incumbent US ambassador stated that the funding
(including "Millennium Challenges" programme) will probably be
resumed, "if the authorities of Armenia work on the correction of the
shortcomings". Most probably, here they mean the expectations of the
US on the arrangement of the parliamentary elections in Armenia in
spring 2012 on a decent level. In case of holding successful elections
which would receive a good rating of the international structures,
funding by the US, most probably, will be increased.
"GLOBUS Energy and Regional Security", Issue 4, 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another materials of author
~UPOSSIBILITIES OF INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH
CONFLICT: MYTHS AND REALITIES[14.02.2011] ~UARMENIAN - GEORGIAN
RELATIONS AFTER "FIVE DAYS" WAR[15.10.2009] ~UARMENIA-TURKEY: NEW
POLITICAL PHASE? [14.05.2009] ~USPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ON
JANUARY 5, 2008 IN GEORGIA: A VIEW FROM JAVAKHQ[07.02.2008]