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WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 19, 2011 Friday
HALF-DECAY
by Svetlana Gamova, Sokhbet Mamedov
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 17, 2011, pp. 1, 6
[translated from Russian]
THE COMMONWEALTH: TWENTY YEARS AND NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT; An update
on the forthcoming informal summit of the Commonwealth in Dushanbe.
Promoted as the CIS Year all over the Commonwealth, 2011 turned out to
be a disappointment, particularly from the standpoint of integration
that had been expected to do better than establish the Customs Union
alone.
"[Russian Premier Vladimir Putin torpedoed the free trade treaty which
was what all CIS countries had aspired to. Without this treaty all
other CIS programs become essentially pointless. Particularly from the
standpoint of Ukraine convinced that Gazprom is about to unleash a new
gas war in order to propel Ukraine into the Customs Union," said
Sergei Tolstov, Director of the Institute of Political Analysis and
International Studies (Kiev). The expert admitted that he did not
expect President of Ukraine Victor Yanukovich to emulate his
Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and flatly refuse to go to the
CIS summit in Dushanbe. He said, however, that unless Moscow changed
the way it treated its CIS partners, the president of Ukraine would
find plausible excuses to miss CIS summits. "The Commonwealth used to
offer its members an opportunity to meet and talk things over... even
to address the problems existing in their relations. No more," said
Tolstov.
"That Aliyev went for it is bad for Russia, of course. It is plain
demonstration that Russia's partners no longer view it as an
intermediary. That they see it as a promoter of Armenia alone. That it
is done by Aliyev, a cautious politician that he is, shows that he has
been pushed too far... Neither are things any better for the
Commonwealth in general which is celebrating its 20th anniversary
without Georgia," said Aleksei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow
Center. "Aliyev's demarche proves inadequacy of the Commonwealth...
and so do endless trade wars and conflicts."
The news that Aliyev intended to miss the CIS summit after all reached
Moscow yesterday, barely three days after confirmation from Baku that
Aliyev would attend the celebration. Official sources remain
noncommittal for the time being.
Some experts attributed Aliyev's demarche to the latest developments
in the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict settlement. It is said that
official Baku was thoroughly displeased with international
intermediaries and their unwillingness to apply pressure to Armenia, a
country occupying seven Azerbaijani districts these last nearly twenty
years.
"It's wrong to assume that Azerbaijan intends to boycott the CIS
summit. Prime Minister Arthur Rasizade is going to represent
Azerbaijan there. As a matter of fact, I won't be surprise to learn
that some other CIS country will follow suit. It's not going to be the
first time, you know. No need to be overly dramatic," said Rasim
Musabekov of the Committee for International Relations of the
Azerbaijani national parliament.
Said Musabekov, "Both formal and informal summits of the Commonwealth
are nothing but a club of post-Soviet presidents. It is common
knowledge after all that some CIS president would not attend a CIS
summit without an appointment with the Russian president he need to
talk something or other over with. From this standpoint, there is no
need for Aliyev to go to the informal summit in Dushanbe."
"Azerbaijan enjoys stable bilateral relations with all CIS countries.
It does not need the Commonwealth as such to bolster its contacts with
foreign countries. As for Medvedev, Aliyev met with him in Sochi only
recently. They discussed Karabakh, of course... Armenia
nonconstructive stand on the matter makes continuation of the talks
pointless at this time. It follows that organization of a trilateral
meeting between Aliyev, Medvedev, and [President of Armenia Serj]
Sargsjan is pointless too... not as if one were scheduled for that
matter. Why waste the time on the trip to Dushanbe then?"
Azerbaijan and Ukraine are members of GUAM, a regional alliance once
established to counter Moscow's ambitions in the post-Soviet zone.
Georgia was the first GUAM country to quit the Commonwealth. Moldova
is prepared to follow suit but waiting to see what Ukraine will do.
Ukraine in its turn is still trying to keep up the illusion of
friendship with Russia. Unfortunately, this illusion is increasingly
more difficult to maintain. Neither does President of Victor
Yanukovich want to give Russia control over gas pipelines across his
country the way Belarus did. "Forget it, Yanukovich is not going to
let Russia take over the domestic Ukrainian market," said Tolstov.
"Moscow in its turn will put Ukraine under pressure to force it into
the Customs Union and convince the European Union of the unreliability
of gas transit via Ukraine."
Experts expect Ukraine to be the next country making a step away from
the Commonwealth. Moldova will follow.
From: A. Papazian
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 19, 2011 Friday
HALF-DECAY
by Svetlana Gamova, Sokhbet Mamedov
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 17, 2011, pp. 1, 6
[translated from Russian]
THE COMMONWEALTH: TWENTY YEARS AND NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT; An update
on the forthcoming informal summit of the Commonwealth in Dushanbe.
Promoted as the CIS Year all over the Commonwealth, 2011 turned out to
be a disappointment, particularly from the standpoint of integration
that had been expected to do better than establish the Customs Union
alone.
"[Russian Premier Vladimir Putin torpedoed the free trade treaty which
was what all CIS countries had aspired to. Without this treaty all
other CIS programs become essentially pointless. Particularly from the
standpoint of Ukraine convinced that Gazprom is about to unleash a new
gas war in order to propel Ukraine into the Customs Union," said
Sergei Tolstov, Director of the Institute of Political Analysis and
International Studies (Kiev). The expert admitted that he did not
expect President of Ukraine Victor Yanukovich to emulate his
Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and flatly refuse to go to the
CIS summit in Dushanbe. He said, however, that unless Moscow changed
the way it treated its CIS partners, the president of Ukraine would
find plausible excuses to miss CIS summits. "The Commonwealth used to
offer its members an opportunity to meet and talk things over... even
to address the problems existing in their relations. No more," said
Tolstov.
"That Aliyev went for it is bad for Russia, of course. It is plain
demonstration that Russia's partners no longer view it as an
intermediary. That they see it as a promoter of Armenia alone. That it
is done by Aliyev, a cautious politician that he is, shows that he has
been pushed too far... Neither are things any better for the
Commonwealth in general which is celebrating its 20th anniversary
without Georgia," said Aleksei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow
Center. "Aliyev's demarche proves inadequacy of the Commonwealth...
and so do endless trade wars and conflicts."
The news that Aliyev intended to miss the CIS summit after all reached
Moscow yesterday, barely three days after confirmation from Baku that
Aliyev would attend the celebration. Official sources remain
noncommittal for the time being.
Some experts attributed Aliyev's demarche to the latest developments
in the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict settlement. It is said that
official Baku was thoroughly displeased with international
intermediaries and their unwillingness to apply pressure to Armenia, a
country occupying seven Azerbaijani districts these last nearly twenty
years.
"It's wrong to assume that Azerbaijan intends to boycott the CIS
summit. Prime Minister Arthur Rasizade is going to represent
Azerbaijan there. As a matter of fact, I won't be surprise to learn
that some other CIS country will follow suit. It's not going to be the
first time, you know. No need to be overly dramatic," said Rasim
Musabekov of the Committee for International Relations of the
Azerbaijani national parliament.
Said Musabekov, "Both formal and informal summits of the Commonwealth
are nothing but a club of post-Soviet presidents. It is common
knowledge after all that some CIS president would not attend a CIS
summit without an appointment with the Russian president he need to
talk something or other over with. From this standpoint, there is no
need for Aliyev to go to the informal summit in Dushanbe."
"Azerbaijan enjoys stable bilateral relations with all CIS countries.
It does not need the Commonwealth as such to bolster its contacts with
foreign countries. As for Medvedev, Aliyev met with him in Sochi only
recently. They discussed Karabakh, of course... Armenia
nonconstructive stand on the matter makes continuation of the talks
pointless at this time. It follows that organization of a trilateral
meeting between Aliyev, Medvedev, and [President of Armenia Serj]
Sargsjan is pointless too... not as if one were scheduled for that
matter. Why waste the time on the trip to Dushanbe then?"
Azerbaijan and Ukraine are members of GUAM, a regional alliance once
established to counter Moscow's ambitions in the post-Soviet zone.
Georgia was the first GUAM country to quit the Commonwealth. Moldova
is prepared to follow suit but waiting to see what Ukraine will do.
Ukraine in its turn is still trying to keep up the illusion of
friendship with Russia. Unfortunately, this illusion is increasingly
more difficult to maintain. Neither does President of Victor
Yanukovich want to give Russia control over gas pipelines across his
country the way Belarus did. "Forget it, Yanukovich is not going to
let Russia take over the domestic Ukrainian market," said Tolstov.
"Moscow in its turn will put Ukraine under pressure to force it into
the Customs Union and convince the European Union of the unreliability
of gas transit via Ukraine."
Experts expect Ukraine to be the next country making a step away from
the Commonwealth. Moldova will follow.
From: A. Papazian