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Nezavisimaya Gazeta , Russia
Aug 16 2011
Half-Life Time - Commonwealth of Independent States celebrates 20th
anniversary in truncated form
[translated from Russian]
On its 20th anniversary, the CIS will have to count its latest losses
instead of issuing ceremonial reports. Azerbaijan's President Ilham
Aliyev will not be going to the commonwealth summit in Dushanbe, which
is scheduled for 2-3 September. It is thought that the reason is the
unsuccessful talks on Karabakh, which Aliyev held with Dmitriy
Medvedev in Sochi. Experts regard this move as a signal to Moscow -
Russia is ceasing be a mediator in conflict resolution in the eyes of
its partners. Moreover, in fraternal capitals it is being accused of
unleashing trade wars to force through economic and political
compromises that are to the Kremlin's advantage. Such views are being
expressed first and foremost in the GUAM countries (Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova).
This year, which was proclaimed the Year of the CIS in the
commonwealth, has turned out not to be the most successful. Especially
in matters relating to integration, which there were plans to push
beyond the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) during this
period.
"Putin has effectively blocked a free trade agreement, and that was
the aim being pursued by all the CIS countries. Without it, all the
other commonwealth programmes, which are types of mutual aid in the
various spheres, are just pretexts for asking: why do we need this? In
Ukraine, where people today are saying that Gazprom is preparing
another gas war to push us into joining the Customs Union, this is
especially relevant," Sergey Tolstov, the director of the Kiev
Institute of Political Analysis and International Research, noted to
Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He said that Viktor Yanukovych was not following
the example of Ilham Aliyev and would not directly refuse to travel to
Dushanbe. However, if Moscow maintained the style of relations that it
was using in the dialogue with its CIS partners, the Ukrainian
president would find many other ways of avoiding commonwealth summits.
"The factor of the CIS being able to be used as a platform for
alleviating conflicts between members of the community, is now no
longer working," Tolstov said.
"The fact that Aliyev has taken such a step is bad for Russia. Since
it is losing its image as a mediator in the eyes of its partners and
is acquiring another one - as a lobbyist for Armenia. The fact that it
is Aliyev - a cautious and intelligent politician - who is doing this
shows (from the standpoint of Aliyev himself) how far he has been
pushed. It is also sad for the CIS, which is celebrating its 20th
anniversary without Georgia," Aleskey Malashenko, an expert at the
Carnegie Moscow Centre, noted.
"Aliyev's step confirms that the CIS is unviable. The proof of this is
provided by the constant trade wars and the interstate conflicts
within its framework," Aleksey Malashenko commented on the situation
to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The news that Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev would not be taking
part in the upcoming summit of the heads of state of the CIS countries
broke yesterday [15 August] and provoked a number of questions. The
main one was why Baku first confirmed that the head of Azerbaijan
would take part in the summit and then changed its decision three days
later. Official sources have not yet commented on the reason for the
sudden change of plans.
This led to speculation that Aliyev was taking the step mainly because
of recent developments in the negotiation process relating to the
settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It
is being said that Baku is unhappy with the position of the mediators,
in particular their reluctance to exert pressure on Armenia, which has
been occupying seven of the largest and most economically important
districts of Azerbaijan for almost 20 years.
"Azerbaijan is not ignoring the CIS summit and will be represented at
a high level there by Prime Minister Artur Rasizade. I would not be
surprised if leaders of other CIS member countries did not act in a
similar manner as well. This is not the first time that such a thing
has occurred, so there is no reason to dramatize the situation," Rasim
Musabekov, the well-known political scientist and member of the
Azerbaijani parliament's international relations committee, said in an
interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
In his opinion, "it is not just the informal but even the formal CIS
summits have essentially turned into a club of post-Soviet presidents.
At the meetings over the past decade, only decisions on insignificant
pretty much ceremonial matters, such as abolishing the next key
anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, have been adopted
and implemented on a multilateral basis. Therefore, summits are of
interest as a venue for bilateral meetings. It is no secret that many
presidents go to CIS summits if they have prior arrangements for a
meeting with the Russian president. In this sense, there is no
motivation for President Aliyev's participation in the unofficial CIS
summit in Dushanbe," Musabekov explained.
"Azerbaijan has a solid bilateral relationship with all the CIS
countries, and these relationships do not need the prop of the CIS.
Ilham Aliyev met Russian Federation President Medvedev in Sochi quite
recently and they discussed both Russian-Azerbaijani relations and the
situation relating to the Karabakh settlement in detail," Musabekov
said. Moreover, he noted that "the relentless attempts by Armenia to
crush, in one form or another, any possibility of the secession of
Nagornyy Karabakh has made the continuation of the negotiations
process hopeless at this stage. Consequently it would be pointless to
hold a trilateral Aliyev-Medvedev-Sargsyan meeting, and none is
planned. This being the case, there is no need to go to Dushanbe and
waste time," the political scientist and member of parliament thinks.
Azerbaijan and Ukraine are members of the GUAM regional organization,
which was in its time conceived of as an element in the containment of
Moscow's ambitions in the former Soviet space. Georgia was the first
member of the association to leave the CIS. Moldova was also ready to
do so but it looks to its more influential neighbour - Ukraine. And
the latter is for the time being trying to keep up appearances and
maintain a friendly relationship with "fraternal" Russia. But during
recent times, the strength of this relationship has been tested with
increasing frequency. And Yanukovych, who also has other commitments
in relation to, for example, the EU and the IMF cannot ignore these.
Or the national interests of his own country either. And the Ukrainian
president does not want to hand over his own gas transportation system
to the Russian Federation as Belarus did. "Yanukovych will not hand
Russia the keys to Ukraine's domestic market," Tolstov said. And he
noted that "in response, Moscow will exert pressure on Kiev to force
Ukraine into a trade agreement, to prove to the EU the unreliability
of Ukraine in relation to transit and thus lobbying for Yuzhnyy Potok
[the South Stream pipeline]. That is why it cannot be ruled out that
the next step away from the CIS should be expected from Ukraine. There
is no doubt that in this case it will be followed by Moldova.
Aug 16 2011
Half-Life Time - Commonwealth of Independent States celebrates 20th
anniversary in truncated form
[translated from Russian]
On its 20th anniversary, the CIS will have to count its latest losses
instead of issuing ceremonial reports. Azerbaijan's President Ilham
Aliyev will not be going to the commonwealth summit in Dushanbe, which
is scheduled for 2-3 September. It is thought that the reason is the
unsuccessful talks on Karabakh, which Aliyev held with Dmitriy
Medvedev in Sochi. Experts regard this move as a signal to Moscow -
Russia is ceasing be a mediator in conflict resolution in the eyes of
its partners. Moreover, in fraternal capitals it is being accused of
unleashing trade wars to force through economic and political
compromises that are to the Kremlin's advantage. Such views are being
expressed first and foremost in the GUAM countries (Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova).
This year, which was proclaimed the Year of the CIS in the
commonwealth, has turned out not to be the most successful. Especially
in matters relating to integration, which there were plans to push
beyond the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) during this
period.
"Putin has effectively blocked a free trade agreement, and that was
the aim being pursued by all the CIS countries. Without it, all the
other commonwealth programmes, which are types of mutual aid in the
various spheres, are just pretexts for asking: why do we need this? In
Ukraine, where people today are saying that Gazprom is preparing
another gas war to push us into joining the Customs Union, this is
especially relevant," Sergey Tolstov, the director of the Kiev
Institute of Political Analysis and International Research, noted to
Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He said that Viktor Yanukovych was not following
the example of Ilham Aliyev and would not directly refuse to travel to
Dushanbe. However, if Moscow maintained the style of relations that it
was using in the dialogue with its CIS partners, the Ukrainian
president would find many other ways of avoiding commonwealth summits.
"The factor of the CIS being able to be used as a platform for
alleviating conflicts between members of the community, is now no
longer working," Tolstov said.
"The fact that Aliyev has taken such a step is bad for Russia. Since
it is losing its image as a mediator in the eyes of its partners and
is acquiring another one - as a lobbyist for Armenia. The fact that it
is Aliyev - a cautious and intelligent politician - who is doing this
shows (from the standpoint of Aliyev himself) how far he has been
pushed. It is also sad for the CIS, which is celebrating its 20th
anniversary without Georgia," Aleskey Malashenko, an expert at the
Carnegie Moscow Centre, noted.
"Aliyev's step confirms that the CIS is unviable. The proof of this is
provided by the constant trade wars and the interstate conflicts
within its framework," Aleksey Malashenko commented on the situation
to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The news that Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev would not be taking
part in the upcoming summit of the heads of state of the CIS countries
broke yesterday [15 August] and provoked a number of questions. The
main one was why Baku first confirmed that the head of Azerbaijan
would take part in the summit and then changed its decision three days
later. Official sources have not yet commented on the reason for the
sudden change of plans.
This led to speculation that Aliyev was taking the step mainly because
of recent developments in the negotiation process relating to the
settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It
is being said that Baku is unhappy with the position of the mediators,
in particular their reluctance to exert pressure on Armenia, which has
been occupying seven of the largest and most economically important
districts of Azerbaijan for almost 20 years.
"Azerbaijan is not ignoring the CIS summit and will be represented at
a high level there by Prime Minister Artur Rasizade. I would not be
surprised if leaders of other CIS member countries did not act in a
similar manner as well. This is not the first time that such a thing
has occurred, so there is no reason to dramatize the situation," Rasim
Musabekov, the well-known political scientist and member of the
Azerbaijani parliament's international relations committee, said in an
interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
In his opinion, "it is not just the informal but even the formal CIS
summits have essentially turned into a club of post-Soviet presidents.
At the meetings over the past decade, only decisions on insignificant
pretty much ceremonial matters, such as abolishing the next key
anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, have been adopted
and implemented on a multilateral basis. Therefore, summits are of
interest as a venue for bilateral meetings. It is no secret that many
presidents go to CIS summits if they have prior arrangements for a
meeting with the Russian president. In this sense, there is no
motivation for President Aliyev's participation in the unofficial CIS
summit in Dushanbe," Musabekov explained.
"Azerbaijan has a solid bilateral relationship with all the CIS
countries, and these relationships do not need the prop of the CIS.
Ilham Aliyev met Russian Federation President Medvedev in Sochi quite
recently and they discussed both Russian-Azerbaijani relations and the
situation relating to the Karabakh settlement in detail," Musabekov
said. Moreover, he noted that "the relentless attempts by Armenia to
crush, in one form or another, any possibility of the secession of
Nagornyy Karabakh has made the continuation of the negotiations
process hopeless at this stage. Consequently it would be pointless to
hold a trilateral Aliyev-Medvedev-Sargsyan meeting, and none is
planned. This being the case, there is no need to go to Dushanbe and
waste time," the political scientist and member of parliament thinks.
Azerbaijan and Ukraine are members of the GUAM regional organization,
which was in its time conceived of as an element in the containment of
Moscow's ambitions in the former Soviet space. Georgia was the first
member of the association to leave the CIS. Moldova was also ready to
do so but it looks to its more influential neighbour - Ukraine. And
the latter is for the time being trying to keep up appearances and
maintain a friendly relationship with "fraternal" Russia. But during
recent times, the strength of this relationship has been tested with
increasing frequency. And Yanukovych, who also has other commitments
in relation to, for example, the EU and the IMF cannot ignore these.
Or the national interests of his own country either. And the Ukrainian
president does not want to hand over his own gas transportation system
to the Russian Federation as Belarus did. "Yanukovych will not hand
Russia the keys to Ukraine's domestic market," Tolstov said. And he
noted that "in response, Moscow will exert pressure on Kiev to force
Ukraine into a trade agreement, to prove to the EU the unreliability
of Ukraine in relation to transit and thus lobbying for Yuzhnyy Potok
[the South Stream pipeline]. That is why it cannot be ruled out that
the next step away from the CIS should be expected from Ukraine. There
is no doubt that in this case it will be followed by Moldova.