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Baghdassarov Didn't Pull Out of Thin Air
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics23213.html
Published: 15:21:25 - 03/09/2011
WikiLeaks.org
Created 2010-02-17 05:58
Released 2011-08-30 01:44
Classification CONFIDENTIAL
SUBJECT: SARGSIAN CONFIDANTE ON FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC
POLITICS
REF: 09 YEREVAN 241
Classified By: Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch. Reason 1.4 (B/D)
-------
SUMMARY
-------
1. (C) In a wide-ranging recent discussion with Ambassador and DCM,
Armenian oligarch and Sargsian confidante Mikhail Baghdassarov
expressed optimism that the Turkish parliament would ratify the
normalization protocols, but insisted that Armenia could not be
expected to ratify first. He said Armenia should have good relations
with its neighbors, including Turkey and Azerbaijan, adding that most
of Armenia's leading businessmen favored the opening with Turkey.
Armenia should continue to take steps to demonstrate its goodwill to
the Turks, but 'will not jump without a parachute.' Speaking of the
Turkey-Armenia and N-K processes, Baghdassarov said bluntly that
'Russia used to be more on the Armenian side, but now the Russians are
more with the Turks.'
Baghdassarov cautioned that it would be wrong to push President
Sargsian further on N-K at this point given the pressure he is under
on Turkey-Armenia, and noted that former president Ter-Petrossian fell
from power over perceived concessions on N-K. Baghdassarov argued for
a more 'active' Armenian policy on N-K, including building settlements
in the surrounding territories to 'show the Azerbaijanis they have
something to lose' - although he admitted that President Sargsian
'doesn't even want to think about that.' On domestic politics,
Baghdassarov reiterated his skepticism over the performance of Prime
Minister Sargsian, and criticized Armenia's governing institutions --
government, parliament, and presidency -- for poor performance. He
hinted at the long-rumored rivalry between the President and National
Assembly Speaker Abrahamian, but backed off when asked if the rivalry
was being stoked by former President President Kocharian, whom
Baghdassarov claimed has taken himself out of Armenian politics. End
Summary.
----------------------------
WHO IS MIKHAIL BAGHDASSAROV?
----------------------------
2. (C) Ambassador and DCM met for lunch on January 21 with Mikhail
Bagdassarov, one of Armenia's leading businessman and a loyal friend
of President Serzh Sargsian. Baghdassarov is the owner of Armavia,
Armenia's national airline (discussion of civair issues to be reported
septel), and is a major importer of gasoline for his extensive chain
of filling stations. He is also the monopolistic importer of jet fuel
for Yerevan's Zvartnots airport, and owns one of Armenia's two cement
plants. Baghdassarov also has significant business interests in
Russia, where he spends much of his time. Baghdassarov is perceived as
closer to the President than any of Armenia's other oligarchs, and he
sees Sargsian frequently. Baghdassarov is originally from Baku -- his
first language is Russian, and he speaks just a few words of Armenian.
We believe Baghdassarov's comments to us often represent the
President's thinking, or at least reflect issues that the two have
discussed.
--------------------------------------
ARMENIA NEEDS RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBORS
--------------------------------------
3. (C) As in past conversations, Bagdassarov expressed strong support
for the normalization process with Turkey. He said Armenia needs to
establish 'normal' relations with its neighbors, including Turkey and
Azerbaijan. Despite the fits and starts of the process with Turkey,
Baghdassarov said he believed the Turks would eventually ratify the
protocols. Armenia would benefit more economically from normalization
and a border opening, he said, but Turkey would benefit politically.
He chalked up Turkey's delay in ratification to the GOT 'seeking a
higher price' from Armenia for opening the border. Baghdassarov
asserted that all of Armenia's major businessmen -- with the exception
of 'one or two illiterates' -- support the Turkey-Armenia process.
4. (C) Baghdassarov argued that the GOAM should continue to take steps
that demonstrate Armenia's goodwill toward Turkey, but cautioned that
'we can't jump without a parachute.' Although he expressed no doubt
that Armenia could easily ratify the protocols in the National
Assembly, Baghdassarov said it is not realistic to expect Armenia to
ratify before Turkey. In this situation, he said, 'the people will
expect the stronger country to go first.' Baghdassarov said, however,
that it might be possible for the Government to submit the protocols
to the Armenian parliament, much as the Turks have done, as a further
signal to encourage the GOT to move forward.
---------------------------------------
RUSSIANS 'USED TO BE' ON ARMENIA'S SIDE
---------------------------------------
5. (C) In a striking comment that Baghdassarov repeated several times,
he claimed that Armenia could no longer count on Russia for support
when it came to dealing with Turkey. Referring to the Turkey-Armenia
process, he said one problem is that 'Russia used to be on Armenia's
side' but is now 'more with the Turks' because of Russian-Turkish
economic interests. When the Ambassador pointed out that both Putin
and Lavrov had publicly supported Armenia's position of no linkage
with N-K, Baghdassarov countered, 'that's what they say publicly.' He
then amended his argument slightly, saying that while Moscow may not
be on Turkey's side, it is at best neutral when it comes to
Turkey-Armenia. (Comment: This conclusion is one that Baghdassarov
probably didn't pull out of thin air. There was at least a hint that
he knew more than he was willing to tell, but that he had heard this
frustration expressed by someone else -- most likely the President. It
is even possible that he had been asked to deliver that message. End
comment.)
--------------------------
DON'T PUSH TOO HARD ON N-K
--------------------------
6. (C) Echoing what we have heard repeatedly from President Sargsian
in recent months, Baghdassarov warned that the international community
'should not push the President too hard' on Nagorno-Karabakh at this
time. He said that while most Armenians support normalization with
Turkey, there is a lot of suspicion that something inimical to
Armenians' interest is brewing in the N-K settlement process. These
fears have been stoked by both the opposition and the diaspora --
especially in the United States. Baghdassarov recalled that former
president Levon Ter-Petrossian fell from power in 1998 for appearing
to go too far, too fast on N-K, and implied that President Sargsian
would run a similar risk if he accelerated the process under Turkish
pressure. (Comment: Baghdassasrov was particularly concerned that the
protocols did not establish final status for NK simultaneous with
Armenia's return of the territories and again recalled Ter
Petrossian's ouster. It is possible that he was sending a message from
the President with this statement.)
-------------------
SETTLEMENTS IN N-K?
-------------------
7. (C) Baghdassarov revealed that he had told the President that
Armenia should become 'more active' in dealing with the N-K issue and
the Azerbajanis. Specifically, he had proposed to the President that
Armenia begin building settlements in the occupied territories that
surround N-K proper. 'This would show to the Azerbaijanis that they
have something to lose if they don't resolve the problem.'
Baghdassarov was clear that the thinking behind his suggestion was not
similar to the Dashnaks' - who favor settlements as a way of
consolidating Armenia's hold on the territories -- but rather to gain
advantage in the negotiation process with Azerbaijan.
He lamented that the President 'did not agree' with his proposal. The
Ambassador pushed back hard, arguing that while settlements may
theoretically strengthen a country's hand in negotiations, the reality
is that the government becomes hostage to the settler community and
cannot move forward toward a peaceful resolution.
--------------------------------------------- ---
DOMESTIC POLITICS: PM 'DOING BETTER;' PRESIDENT 'DOES TOO
MUCH'
--------------------------------------------- ---
8. (C) In marked contrast to his harsh criticism of Prime Minister
Sargsian in the past (reftel), Baghdassarov was careful in his
comments regarding the PM. He said the Prime Minister is 'doing
better' and that over the last two years he had learned a lot. But
Baghdassarov lamented that at the Cabinet level, individuals should
already be professionals and not making mistakes at the expense of the
Armenian people. He also grumbled that during the last year of
economic crisis, the Prime Minister established policies that were
unfriendly to business - at a time when he should have been creating
the most welcoming conditions for business. Baghdassarov claimed that
with his recent investiture in the ruling Republican Party, the
'technocrat' PM is one step closer to his dream of a political career.
9. (C) For his part, President Sargsian wanted the PM in the party to
squelch criticism and unhappiness within the Republican Party that the
ruling party did not get the plum PM position. Baghdassarov said the
President had made a decision to keep the PM on, because he was
skilled at handling foreigners and convincing the IFIs that Armenia
could repay the loans that the GOAM needed to stay afloat. He claimed
that the President handles 'everything else,' but this isn't an ideal
system, because the President travels constantly and even when he is
in Yerevan can't run every ministry. In addition, the ministries don't
have strategies and a framework for decision-making, so Ministers
aren't sure what decisions to take. Everything waits for the
President, according to Baghdassarov. He added that another reason
that the government is dysfunctional is that the Cabinet is made up of
different parties. While the President wanted a smoothly functioning
government, that might not be the goal of the non-ruling party; their
goal was to weaken the government and strengthen their own position
before elections.
YOVANOVITCH
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics23213.html
Published: 15:21:25 - 03/09/2011
WikiLeaks.org
Created 2010-02-17 05:58
Released 2011-08-30 01:44
Classification CONFIDENTIAL
SUBJECT: SARGSIAN CONFIDANTE ON FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC
POLITICS
REF: 09 YEREVAN 241
Classified By: Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch. Reason 1.4 (B/D)
-------
SUMMARY
-------
1. (C) In a wide-ranging recent discussion with Ambassador and DCM,
Armenian oligarch and Sargsian confidante Mikhail Baghdassarov
expressed optimism that the Turkish parliament would ratify the
normalization protocols, but insisted that Armenia could not be
expected to ratify first. He said Armenia should have good relations
with its neighbors, including Turkey and Azerbaijan, adding that most
of Armenia's leading businessmen favored the opening with Turkey.
Armenia should continue to take steps to demonstrate its goodwill to
the Turks, but 'will not jump without a parachute.' Speaking of the
Turkey-Armenia and N-K processes, Baghdassarov said bluntly that
'Russia used to be more on the Armenian side, but now the Russians are
more with the Turks.'
Baghdassarov cautioned that it would be wrong to push President
Sargsian further on N-K at this point given the pressure he is under
on Turkey-Armenia, and noted that former president Ter-Petrossian fell
from power over perceived concessions on N-K. Baghdassarov argued for
a more 'active' Armenian policy on N-K, including building settlements
in the surrounding territories to 'show the Azerbaijanis they have
something to lose' - although he admitted that President Sargsian
'doesn't even want to think about that.' On domestic politics,
Baghdassarov reiterated his skepticism over the performance of Prime
Minister Sargsian, and criticized Armenia's governing institutions --
government, parliament, and presidency -- for poor performance. He
hinted at the long-rumored rivalry between the President and National
Assembly Speaker Abrahamian, but backed off when asked if the rivalry
was being stoked by former President President Kocharian, whom
Baghdassarov claimed has taken himself out of Armenian politics. End
Summary.
----------------------------
WHO IS MIKHAIL BAGHDASSAROV?
----------------------------
2. (C) Ambassador and DCM met for lunch on January 21 with Mikhail
Bagdassarov, one of Armenia's leading businessman and a loyal friend
of President Serzh Sargsian. Baghdassarov is the owner of Armavia,
Armenia's national airline (discussion of civair issues to be reported
septel), and is a major importer of gasoline for his extensive chain
of filling stations. He is also the monopolistic importer of jet fuel
for Yerevan's Zvartnots airport, and owns one of Armenia's two cement
plants. Baghdassarov also has significant business interests in
Russia, where he spends much of his time. Baghdassarov is perceived as
closer to the President than any of Armenia's other oligarchs, and he
sees Sargsian frequently. Baghdassarov is originally from Baku -- his
first language is Russian, and he speaks just a few words of Armenian.
We believe Baghdassarov's comments to us often represent the
President's thinking, or at least reflect issues that the two have
discussed.
--------------------------------------
ARMENIA NEEDS RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBORS
--------------------------------------
3. (C) As in past conversations, Bagdassarov expressed strong support
for the normalization process with Turkey. He said Armenia needs to
establish 'normal' relations with its neighbors, including Turkey and
Azerbaijan. Despite the fits and starts of the process with Turkey,
Baghdassarov said he believed the Turks would eventually ratify the
protocols. Armenia would benefit more economically from normalization
and a border opening, he said, but Turkey would benefit politically.
He chalked up Turkey's delay in ratification to the GOT 'seeking a
higher price' from Armenia for opening the border. Baghdassarov
asserted that all of Armenia's major businessmen -- with the exception
of 'one or two illiterates' -- support the Turkey-Armenia process.
4. (C) Baghdassarov argued that the GOAM should continue to take steps
that demonstrate Armenia's goodwill toward Turkey, but cautioned that
'we can't jump without a parachute.' Although he expressed no doubt
that Armenia could easily ratify the protocols in the National
Assembly, Baghdassarov said it is not realistic to expect Armenia to
ratify before Turkey. In this situation, he said, 'the people will
expect the stronger country to go first.' Baghdassarov said, however,
that it might be possible for the Government to submit the protocols
to the Armenian parliament, much as the Turks have done, as a further
signal to encourage the GOT to move forward.
---------------------------------------
RUSSIANS 'USED TO BE' ON ARMENIA'S SIDE
---------------------------------------
5. (C) In a striking comment that Baghdassarov repeated several times,
he claimed that Armenia could no longer count on Russia for support
when it came to dealing with Turkey. Referring to the Turkey-Armenia
process, he said one problem is that 'Russia used to be on Armenia's
side' but is now 'more with the Turks' because of Russian-Turkish
economic interests. When the Ambassador pointed out that both Putin
and Lavrov had publicly supported Armenia's position of no linkage
with N-K, Baghdassarov countered, 'that's what they say publicly.' He
then amended his argument slightly, saying that while Moscow may not
be on Turkey's side, it is at best neutral when it comes to
Turkey-Armenia. (Comment: This conclusion is one that Baghdassarov
probably didn't pull out of thin air. There was at least a hint that
he knew more than he was willing to tell, but that he had heard this
frustration expressed by someone else -- most likely the President. It
is even possible that he had been asked to deliver that message. End
comment.)
--------------------------
DON'T PUSH TOO HARD ON N-K
--------------------------
6. (C) Echoing what we have heard repeatedly from President Sargsian
in recent months, Baghdassarov warned that the international community
'should not push the President too hard' on Nagorno-Karabakh at this
time. He said that while most Armenians support normalization with
Turkey, there is a lot of suspicion that something inimical to
Armenians' interest is brewing in the N-K settlement process. These
fears have been stoked by both the opposition and the diaspora --
especially in the United States. Baghdassarov recalled that former
president Levon Ter-Petrossian fell from power in 1998 for appearing
to go too far, too fast on N-K, and implied that President Sargsian
would run a similar risk if he accelerated the process under Turkish
pressure. (Comment: Baghdassasrov was particularly concerned that the
protocols did not establish final status for NK simultaneous with
Armenia's return of the territories and again recalled Ter
Petrossian's ouster. It is possible that he was sending a message from
the President with this statement.)
-------------------
SETTLEMENTS IN N-K?
-------------------
7. (C) Baghdassarov revealed that he had told the President that
Armenia should become 'more active' in dealing with the N-K issue and
the Azerbajanis. Specifically, he had proposed to the President that
Armenia begin building settlements in the occupied territories that
surround N-K proper. 'This would show to the Azerbaijanis that they
have something to lose if they don't resolve the problem.'
Baghdassarov was clear that the thinking behind his suggestion was not
similar to the Dashnaks' - who favor settlements as a way of
consolidating Armenia's hold on the territories -- but rather to gain
advantage in the negotiation process with Azerbaijan.
He lamented that the President 'did not agree' with his proposal. The
Ambassador pushed back hard, arguing that while settlements may
theoretically strengthen a country's hand in negotiations, the reality
is that the government becomes hostage to the settler community and
cannot move forward toward a peaceful resolution.
--------------------------------------------- ---
DOMESTIC POLITICS: PM 'DOING BETTER;' PRESIDENT 'DOES TOO
MUCH'
--------------------------------------------- ---
8. (C) In marked contrast to his harsh criticism of Prime Minister
Sargsian in the past (reftel), Baghdassarov was careful in his
comments regarding the PM. He said the Prime Minister is 'doing
better' and that over the last two years he had learned a lot. But
Baghdassarov lamented that at the Cabinet level, individuals should
already be professionals and not making mistakes at the expense of the
Armenian people. He also grumbled that during the last year of
economic crisis, the Prime Minister established policies that were
unfriendly to business - at a time when he should have been creating
the most welcoming conditions for business. Baghdassarov claimed that
with his recent investiture in the ruling Republican Party, the
'technocrat' PM is one step closer to his dream of a political career.
9. (C) For his part, President Sargsian wanted the PM in the party to
squelch criticism and unhappiness within the Republican Party that the
ruling party did not get the plum PM position. Baghdassarov said the
President had made a decision to keep the PM on, because he was
skilled at handling foreigners and convincing the IFIs that Armenia
could repay the loans that the GOAM needed to stay afloat. He claimed
that the President handles 'everything else,' but this isn't an ideal
system, because the President travels constantly and even when he is
in Yerevan can't run every ministry. In addition, the ministries don't
have strategies and a framework for decision-making, so Ministers
aren't sure what decisions to take. Everything waits for the
President, according to Baghdassarov. He added that another reason
that the government is dysfunctional is that the Cabinet is made up of
different parties. While the President wanted a smoothly functioning
government, that might not be the goal of the non-ruling party; their
goal was to weaken the government and strengthen their own position
before elections.
YOVANOVITCH