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BAKU: WikiLeaks: Ilham Aliyev "Can Wait" In Solving Karabakh Problem

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  • BAKU: WikiLeaks: Ilham Aliyev "Can Wait" In Solving Karabakh Problem

    WIKILEAKS: ILHAM ALIYEV "CAN WAIT" IN SOLVING KARABAKH PROBLEM

    AzeriReport
    http://azerireport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2932&Ite mid=53
    Sept 6 2011

    WASHINGTON DC. September 6, 2011: The new WikiLeaks report discloses
    the diplomatic cable from the US Embassy in Brussels to the US
    State Department dated February 23, 2004. The diplomatic cable
    reports about the meetings of the EU envoy Talvitie in Georgia,
    Armenia and Azerbaijan. The portion of the report reflecting the EU
    representative's impressions about the president Ilham Aliyev has
    interesting colors to it: "Boe noted that Ilham Aliev told EUSR
    Talvitie during a recent visit (January 20 to February 5) to the
    region that he (Aliev) could wait for a solution to NK. He was young
    and not in a hurry like his father had been, Ilham reportedly said.

    Boe said that it was unclear whether Ilham's remarks signaled a shift
    in policy or a sign of his weakness as he tries to consolidate power
    in Baku. Boe also remarked that he and Talvitie had been hearing
    conflicting stories about Ilham's personal interest in power. "Some
    say he wants power, and some say he only wants to play," Boe said.

    In either case, the Azeris seem to playing up the image of Ilham as
    a professional by boasting to Talvitie that Ilham now shows up for
    work at 9:00 every day." Below is the full text of the cable:

    "C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000758

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/SNEC, EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE E.O. 12958: DECL:
    02/20/2009

    TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM, AJ, GG, RS, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS

    SUBJECT: US-EU COEST CONSULTATIONS PART 2: SOUTH CAUCASUS

    REF: BRUSSELS 666

    Classified By: USEU Poloff Van Reidhead for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

    1. (C) SUMMARY: On February 9 in Brussels, EUR DAS Lynn Pascoe --
    accompanied by EUR/ACE Deputy Dan Rosenblum and EUR/ERA Director
    Kathy Allegrone -- discussed US-EU cooperation in Central Asia and the
    South Caucasus with the EU's COEST Troika. This cable covers the South
    Caucasus portion of the consultations. The discussion of Central Asia
    is reported ref. A. -- Wider Europe Initiative (WEI): Decision will
    be made by end of June on whether to include South Caucasus in WEI;
    Irish FM Cowen, EUSR Talvitie and Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen
    all support South Caucasus inclusion, and are pushing others to
    do so; EU remains concerned about Russian reaction and overly high
    expectations of South Caucasus governments. -- Georgia: EU remains
    confident in Saakashvili's efforts to reform public institutions;
    EU has 30 million euros budgeted for assistance in 2004; US and EU
    to enhance on-the-ground coordination even further. -- Armenia:
    Kocharian making positive strides toward meeting conditions of
    Council of Europe membership; EU agrees that progress should be
    made toward opening the Turkish-Armenian border, but doubts whether
    this can happen without progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. -- Azerbaijan:
    Ilham Aliev tells EU he "can wait" on resolving Nagorno-Karabakh; EU
    agrees that recent positive attention on Georgia creates an opening
    for increasing pressure on Azerbaijan, which worries about being
    forgotten after Georgia's dramatic turnaround. END SUMMARY.

    Wider Europe Initiative: Momentum Growing to Include South Caucasus

    2. (C) COEST Troika members told Pascoe that moves to include the
    three South Caucasus states in the EU's Wider Europe Initiative (WEI)
    were gaining ground. Commission rep Reinhold Brender said that a
    decision would have to be taken by the end of June, and noted that
    Armenian President Kocharian made a direct plea for WEI inclusion
    during a visit to Brussels in December (at which time he also invited
    Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen to visit Yerevan). The EU had
    two serious concerns about expanding WEI into the South Caucasus,
    he said: first, how would Russia react? And second, how could the EU
    gently deflate the unrealistic expectations of the three countries
    regarding benefits of WEI membership? The Council Secretariat's Michael
    Swann echoed this concern by explaining that the EU is nervous about
    comments by Georgian President Saakashvili and Azeri President Ilham
    Aliev that EU membership is an ultimate policy objective of their
    countries. Wouldn't inclusion in the WEI reinforce this unrealistic
    objective? Pascoe replied that the EU should tell Russia that the
    South Caucasus states are independent, and free to choose their own
    sovereign policies. The benefit of expanding WEI into the region would
    be too great to abandon just because the Russians might get upset. Of
    the second concern, Pascoe said that the high expectations of regional
    leaders was to be expected and provided a powerful impetus to reform.

    There would be time to deal with these issues after WEI expansion
    and as reforms proceed.

    3. (SBU) Irish Presidency rep Barbara Jones said that maximizing
    the WEI's value as a point of leverage over included countries was
    an issue of great concern to the EU. Council Policy Planning advisor
    William Boe illustrated the concern by pointed out that Syria has been
    in the WEI for over a year now, yet has made little progress. In that
    context, he asked, why should the EU expect more of Armenia after WEI
    inclusion? Jones noted that Commissioner Verheugen is briefing other
    Commissioners on the issue this month. She said that while some FMs
    remain wary -- arguing that the EU "doesn't need a policy driven by
    enlargement" -- many others are increasingly supportive of inclusion
    of the South Caucasus in the WEI. Among the notable supporters of
    inclusion were Irish FM Cowen (who "will manage the Council debate,"
    she said), Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen, and EU Special Rep
    Heikki Talvitie.

    4. (C) COMMENT: The EU clearly has serious issues to resolve --
    notably about scope, precedence, and managing expectations -- before
    signaling any decision to the region's leaders. Yet based on signals
    we have been receiving since December from Council, Commission and
    member state officials, it seems clear that the EU's momentum has
    shifted from debates about whether to include the Caucasus in WEI,
    to discussions about when, how, and to what end. Skeptics remain but
    are rapidly being outpaced by advocates of WEI expansion. END COMMENT.

    Georgia: A Success for US-EU Cooperation

    5. (SBU) Jones said the EU remains optimistic about the new Georgian
    administration and anticipates positive outcomes from the new reform
    initiatives and the upcoming parliamentary elections. She said it
    was important to maintain the momentum and to continue cooperating on
    difficult issues like Abkhazia, Adjara and IMF restructuring. Pascoe
    agreed, observing that Georgia represented a stunning success for
    US-EU cooperation. On Russia, Jones said the EU was maintaining a
    strong line with Moscow on the need to cooperate; Irish FM Cowen
    told FM Ivanov in a recent meeting that Russia must take Georgia's
    territorial integrity more seriously. Pascoe agreed that Russia must
    learn to deal with Georgia as a normal, sovereign country. Solutions
    to difficult issues like Abkhazia would not be found without serious
    Georgian progress and some Russian help. Quoting a statement by
    NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer that the South Caucasus were as much a
    part of Europe's near abroad as Russia's, Pascoe urged the EU not to
    acquiesce to Russia's effort to treat Georgia as a privileged sphere
    of influence. While recent public statements by Russian officials
    seemed positive, it was important to maintain the pressure to keep
    Moscow moving forward. Boe said that compromise would be the key to
    resolving the Russian basing issues. The Russians know the proposed
    payment of USD 500 million is a nonstarter, he said, and will probably
    seek to use the presence of US forces (conducting Georgia's train
    and equip program) to their advantage during negotiations.

    6. (SBU) Boe said that HiRep Solana and EUSR Talvitie are focused on
    the development of basic state structures as the primary priority in
    Georgia. He noted that the EU budgeted 30 million euros for assistance
    to Georgia in 2004. Commission rep Brender said the EU currently
    has 5 million euros available now for food security, and said the
    2004 budget would provide for 12 million euros for the EU's TACIS
    (Technical Assistance to the CIS) program in Georgia, 12 million euros
    for food security, 4 million euros for rehabilitation projects in South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia, and 2.5 million euros for an EU initiative on
    democracy and human rights. EUR/ACE Deputy Rosenblum noted that the
    US FY2005 budget request for assistance to Georgia was higher than
    the amount requested for any other FSU state. The US is prioritizing
    revenue collection, anti-corruption, and job creation. He also noted
    that the US is considering supporting projects we have never before
    done in Georgia, such as helping mitigate the employment impact of
    public sector reform, adding that in this area the US will follow
    the World Bank lead. Rosenblum noted that the US contribution for
    upcoming parliamentary elections will amount to about one quarter
    of Georgia's self-assessed need of USD 3.4 million. The US was also
    looking for help from others to fund a USD 500,000 computerized voter
    registration system, he said.

    7. (SBU) Pascoe urged the EU to maintain the pressure on Georgia
    to reform. We should not be any softer on Saakashvili than we were
    on the last group, he said. Saakashvili's positive start needed to
    be bolstered, and outside pressure should be maintained to keep the
    new government on track. Jones agreed, and said she would carry the
    message to EU member states to "keep the spotlight on" Saakashvili
    and his new administration. Pascoe said that US-EU cooperation on the
    ground should be increased even further. We should build on our success
    during the run up to the January election and carry our coordination
    into additional aspects of regional assistance, he said.

    Jones said the EU welcomed the enhanced coordination and would direct
    its Missions to continue these efforts.

    Armenia

    8. (SBU) Pascoe noted that while the US continues to press Turkey
    on the need to make progress with Armenia, Azeri President Ilham
    Aliev continues to plead with Turkey not to abandon its defense of
    Azeri interests in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Turkish PM Erdogan seems
    interested in beginning discussions on opening the Turkish-Armenian
    border, but is caught between Turkey's commitments to Azerbaijan
    and its partnerships with the West. Pascoe estimated that Armenian
    President Kocharian will eventually compromise with the Azeris over
    NK, but perhaps Ilham Aliev is not yet a strong enough Azeri partner.

    Boe voiced skepticism that the that NK could be delinked from the
    issue of Turkish-Armenian relations, and asked rhetorically how it
    would be possible to open the Turkish-Armenian border without first
    resolving NK. Pascoe said that the US and EU needed to set out a
    series of arguments to push home resolution of NK as soon as possible,
    rather than just letting it simmer on indefinitely.

    9. (SBU) Jones assessed as positive Kocharian's recent progress toward
    meeting the conditions of Council of Europe (CoE) membership. Pascoe
    agreed, underscoring that CoE membership remained a useful point of
    leverage over Armenia.

    Azerbaijan

    10. (C) Boe noted that Ilham Aliev told EUSR Talvitie during a recent
    visit (January 20 to February 5) to the region that he (Aliev) could
    wait for a solution to NK. He was young and not in a hurry like his
    father had been, Ilham reportedly said. Boe said that it was unclear
    whether Ilham's remarks signaled a shift in policy or a sign of his
    weakness as he tries to consolidate power in Baku. Boe also remarked
    that he and Talvitie had been hearing conflicting stories about
    Ilham's personal interest in power. "Some say he wants power, and
    some say he only wants to play," Boe said. In either case, the Azeris
    seem to playing up the image of Ilham as a professional by boasting
    to Talvitie that Ilham now shows up for work at 9:00 every day.

    11. (C) Pascoe said the US was trying to strengthen Ilham and assist
    him with reform efforts because, while far from perfect, he is
    the most progressive figure available from a pool of unimpressive
    candidates. Boe asked how we intended to do that. Pascoe responded
    that the US was exploring ideas with Ilham and would want to discuss
    these issues during Talvitie's March 1-2 visit to Washington. Boe
    pointed out that Georgia's recent and dramatic progress -- which
    has the Azeris complaining that the Georgians are getting all the
    attention lately -- provided a useful point of leverage over Ilham.

    Pascoe agreed that Georgia's about-face had had a profound impact on
    Azerbaijan, and said the US and EU should use this new leverage for
    maximum benefit. Schnabel"

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