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US ANALYST: THE SOUTH CAUCASUS REGION IS IN THE CENTER OF US-IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION
Today
Sept 6 2011
Azerbaijan
Anthony Cordsman, a well-known US national security analyst, believes
that the South Caucasus region is in the center of US-Iranian strategic
competition.
"Azerbaijan's location on Iran's periphery and access to Caspian and
Middle Eastern energy reserves are assets that both Iran and the US
value", the analyst says arguing, Baku maintains close ties with the
US, serving as an extremely significant part of the US logistical
effort to sustain operations in Afghanistan. However, he says, Iran
remains a significant power in the region, and Baku can afford to
neither provoke nor ignore it.
"In Armenia, meanwhile, Iran plays a significant economic role and has
bolstered its influence by playing on a mutual wariness of Azerbaijan
and Turkey", he mentions. "Armenian relations with Iran are focused
on trade and are of critical importance, since Armenian borders with
Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed due to historic tensions with Turkey
and the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan", the
analyst says.
Besides that, the analyst believes that while the US has been a
strategic partner of Armenia without taking sides against Azerbaijan,
"it is clear that here Iran is the closer ally".
"The challenge for the US will be focus on incentives and good
relations while quietly applying pressure and avoiding any open
confrontation", he assumes.
In the meanwhile, US- Iranian competition does not have a clear,
substantive impact on the other regional states. "While Georgia and
Iran share a vibrant trade relationship, the Georgian foreign policy
preoccupation of limiting Russian meddling in its internal affairs
takes precedence and it is Washington which provides the strongest
countervailing weight against Russian influence. Policymakers in
Tbilisi are likely to continue to see ties with the United States as
the best hedge against Russian aggression, making it unlikely that
they will support Iran in any major security disputes with Washington",
he says.
The analyst also mentioned that in sum, strategic competition is not
the primary consideration for US and Iranian policy in this region.
Both countries have specific evolving interests that are likely to
shift in the hierarchy of each country's grand strategic objectives
in the post-Iraq and post-Afghan era.
"The manner of US withdrawal from the region, and the nature of broader
US-Iranian competition will likely affect the manner and scale of each
country's engagement with Turkey and the South Caucasus, although the
region is likely to remain of interest due its economic importance
and energy wealth", he added.
From: A. Papazian
Today
Sept 6 2011
Azerbaijan
Anthony Cordsman, a well-known US national security analyst, believes
that the South Caucasus region is in the center of US-Iranian strategic
competition.
"Azerbaijan's location on Iran's periphery and access to Caspian and
Middle Eastern energy reserves are assets that both Iran and the US
value", the analyst says arguing, Baku maintains close ties with the
US, serving as an extremely significant part of the US logistical
effort to sustain operations in Afghanistan. However, he says, Iran
remains a significant power in the region, and Baku can afford to
neither provoke nor ignore it.
"In Armenia, meanwhile, Iran plays a significant economic role and has
bolstered its influence by playing on a mutual wariness of Azerbaijan
and Turkey", he mentions. "Armenian relations with Iran are focused
on trade and are of critical importance, since Armenian borders with
Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed due to historic tensions with Turkey
and the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan", the
analyst says.
Besides that, the analyst believes that while the US has been a
strategic partner of Armenia without taking sides against Azerbaijan,
"it is clear that here Iran is the closer ally".
"The challenge for the US will be focus on incentives and good
relations while quietly applying pressure and avoiding any open
confrontation", he assumes.
In the meanwhile, US- Iranian competition does not have a clear,
substantive impact on the other regional states. "While Georgia and
Iran share a vibrant trade relationship, the Georgian foreign policy
preoccupation of limiting Russian meddling in its internal affairs
takes precedence and it is Washington which provides the strongest
countervailing weight against Russian influence. Policymakers in
Tbilisi are likely to continue to see ties with the United States as
the best hedge against Russian aggression, making it unlikely that
they will support Iran in any major security disputes with Washington",
he says.
The analyst also mentioned that in sum, strategic competition is not
the primary consideration for US and Iranian policy in this region.
Both countries have specific evolving interests that are likely to
shift in the hierarchy of each country's grand strategic objectives
in the post-Iraq and post-Afghan era.
"The manner of US withdrawal from the region, and the nature of broader
US-Iranian competition will likely affect the manner and scale of each
country's engagement with Turkey and the South Caucasus, although the
region is likely to remain of interest due its economic importance
and energy wealth", he added.
From: A. Papazian