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ISRAEL-TURKEY: HOW TO CHANGE THE GAME?
Today's Zaman
Sept 7 2011
Turkey
Many comments have been made in Turkey about the current situation
of the Turkish-Israeli relationship. Unfortunately, some of these
comments were openly anti-Semitic. Besides, most of the comments did
not have much to do with the specific incident of the Mavi Marmara
but with regional balances and the future of relations between Israel
and Turkey.
There is no doubt that the essence of the issue is indeed about the
future of the region. However, the balances in the Middle East are
determined not just by the will and capabilities of Turkey and Israel.
For example, in the recent past, the period during which these two
countries cooperated closely was initiated by third actors, and it
was mostly the result of Turkey's determination to act within the
Western alliance. We also remember that some countries such as the
United Kingdom were opposed to that cooperation. However, the US had
insisted on it and European countries weren't able to resist much.
Now, because of the current state of the Turkish-Israeli relations,
there are people who are questioning Turkey's place in the Western
alliance. Some commentators have even suggested that Turkey should be
expelled from NATO. There are indeed some countries that are trying
to make Turkey make mistakes in order to question the country's NATO
membership. Perhaps, some foreign strategists are calculating that it
would be good for their plans if Turkey intervened militarily in Syria,
if at the same time military tension arises between Turkey and Israel
over oil exploration off the Cypriot coast, thus causing relations to
worsen between Turkey and Greece and if, on top of that, commemorations
for the 100th anniversary of the Armenian "genocide" begin.
They probably expect that if Turkey struggles with the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK), Cypriot, Armenian and Israeli problems
simultaneously, it will only have two choices: Either it will become
desperate to be accepted into the EU and become silent member of the
NATO, or it will drift totally apart from both of these organizations.
In other words, they expect Turkey to lose all its clout and
negotiating power before the West or to get out of the Western
institutions once and for all. Which European countries' interests
will be best served if this happens?
Let's recapitulate: The Turkish government has to make crucial
decisions on two important matters, namely the Mavi Marmara issue
and the Deniz Feneri case. It's true that the government is only
indirectly involved in these two matters as they are both about civil
society organizations. However, it is significant that both matters
have connections with Germany. Maybe it is just a coincidence, but it
is worth noting that two major subjects that have put the government
into difficulty have German connections.
Let's imagine that there is indeed an effort to corner Turkey. It will
probably serve actors who are trying to exercise their influence in
the Middle East and the Mediterranean. However, no one can be sure if
this is a good thing for the relationship between Israel and the West,
for example.
Hard days are ahead of Israel, which is losing its friends one by one,
but it would be a mistake for it to believe that European countries
can substitute these lost friends. If the Republicans win the next
presidential elections in the US, they will probably try to keep Israel
and Turkey for themselves to the detriment of the EU. In other words,
these two countries will continue to be the tools of a bigger conflict.
Instead of waiting for someone to save them, one way out is to
decipher this risky game, which doesn't serve Turkey or Israel's
interests. Turkey is angry not only at Israel but also at the traps
being set by third actors. Israel too will be better off if it decides
to undo this game and stop being used.
Today's Zaman
Sept 7 2011
Turkey
Many comments have been made in Turkey about the current situation
of the Turkish-Israeli relationship. Unfortunately, some of these
comments were openly anti-Semitic. Besides, most of the comments did
not have much to do with the specific incident of the Mavi Marmara
but with regional balances and the future of relations between Israel
and Turkey.
There is no doubt that the essence of the issue is indeed about the
future of the region. However, the balances in the Middle East are
determined not just by the will and capabilities of Turkey and Israel.
For example, in the recent past, the period during which these two
countries cooperated closely was initiated by third actors, and it
was mostly the result of Turkey's determination to act within the
Western alliance. We also remember that some countries such as the
United Kingdom were opposed to that cooperation. However, the US had
insisted on it and European countries weren't able to resist much.
Now, because of the current state of the Turkish-Israeli relations,
there are people who are questioning Turkey's place in the Western
alliance. Some commentators have even suggested that Turkey should be
expelled from NATO. There are indeed some countries that are trying
to make Turkey make mistakes in order to question the country's NATO
membership. Perhaps, some foreign strategists are calculating that it
would be good for their plans if Turkey intervened militarily in Syria,
if at the same time military tension arises between Turkey and Israel
over oil exploration off the Cypriot coast, thus causing relations to
worsen between Turkey and Greece and if, on top of that, commemorations
for the 100th anniversary of the Armenian "genocide" begin.
They probably expect that if Turkey struggles with the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK), Cypriot, Armenian and Israeli problems
simultaneously, it will only have two choices: Either it will become
desperate to be accepted into the EU and become silent member of the
NATO, or it will drift totally apart from both of these organizations.
In other words, they expect Turkey to lose all its clout and
negotiating power before the West or to get out of the Western
institutions once and for all. Which European countries' interests
will be best served if this happens?
Let's recapitulate: The Turkish government has to make crucial
decisions on two important matters, namely the Mavi Marmara issue
and the Deniz Feneri case. It's true that the government is only
indirectly involved in these two matters as they are both about civil
society organizations. However, it is significant that both matters
have connections with Germany. Maybe it is just a coincidence, but it
is worth noting that two major subjects that have put the government
into difficulty have German connections.
Let's imagine that there is indeed an effort to corner Turkey. It will
probably serve actors who are trying to exercise their influence in
the Middle East and the Mediterranean. However, no one can be sure if
this is a good thing for the relationship between Israel and the West,
for example.
Hard days are ahead of Israel, which is losing its friends one by one,
but it would be a mistake for it to believe that European countries
can substitute these lost friends. If the Republicans win the next
presidential elections in the US, they will probably try to keep Israel
and Turkey for themselves to the detriment of the EU. In other words,
these two countries will continue to be the tools of a bigger conflict.
Instead of waiting for someone to save them, one way out is to
decipher this risky game, which doesn't serve Turkey or Israel's
interests. Turkey is angry not only at Israel but also at the traps
being set by third actors. Israel too will be better off if it decides
to undo this game and stop being used.