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NO 'POMEGRANATE REVOLUTION' IN ARMENIA, BELIEVED US AMBASSADOR
epress.am
09.09.2011
"One year after an opposition rally was forcibly broken up Armenia
is decidedly not on the verge of a 'Pomegranate Revolution'," wrote
then US Ambassador to Armenia John Marshall Evans in a Apr. 13,
2005 unclassified cable recently published by whistle-blowing site
WikiLeaks, Evans, incidentally, will be one of the speakers at the
upcoming TEDxYerevan'11 event.
"With a fractured opposition, lack of a clear opposition leader,
a steadily improving economy and a government with few fault lines
we do not anticipate a change of power in Armenia before the next
scheduled elections in 2007 and 2008," he opined.
The cable includes comments by former president Robert Kocharian on the
unlikely prospects for revolution in Armenia - "regardless of what its
color is." Speaking to students Apr.11, Kocharian said there has been
no revolution "not because of the fact that our opposition is too bad,
but because the situation in Armenia is better, and state authorities
are more effective" than in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine.
In the cable Evans mentions a roundtable on the topic of revolutions
in which organizers also agreed that a revolution in Armenia was
unlikely. The US diplomat also includes opinions by opposition members:
"Stepan Demirchian, one of the leaders of the opposition Justice Bloc
and wanna-be opposition leader, admitted privately to us that unless
the government slips up and hands its opponents an opportunity the
opposition would have to wait until elections. Demirchian hoped that
if the GOAM [Government of Armenia] managed to come to agreement on
proposed changes to the Constitution or electoral code, the opposition
could turn the subsequent referendum into a plebiscite on President
Kocharian's 'legitimacy"."
The US diplomat concludes with the embassy's view which is that
"despite persistent discussion of a possible 'Pomegranate Revolution'
we simply see little chance of forced regime change in Armenia."
epress.am
09.09.2011
"One year after an opposition rally was forcibly broken up Armenia
is decidedly not on the verge of a 'Pomegranate Revolution'," wrote
then US Ambassador to Armenia John Marshall Evans in a Apr. 13,
2005 unclassified cable recently published by whistle-blowing site
WikiLeaks, Evans, incidentally, will be one of the speakers at the
upcoming TEDxYerevan'11 event.
"With a fractured opposition, lack of a clear opposition leader,
a steadily improving economy and a government with few fault lines
we do not anticipate a change of power in Armenia before the next
scheduled elections in 2007 and 2008," he opined.
The cable includes comments by former president Robert Kocharian on the
unlikely prospects for revolution in Armenia - "regardless of what its
color is." Speaking to students Apr.11, Kocharian said there has been
no revolution "not because of the fact that our opposition is too bad,
but because the situation in Armenia is better, and state authorities
are more effective" than in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine.
In the cable Evans mentions a roundtable on the topic of revolutions
in which organizers also agreed that a revolution in Armenia was
unlikely. The US diplomat also includes opinions by opposition members:
"Stepan Demirchian, one of the leaders of the opposition Justice Bloc
and wanna-be opposition leader, admitted privately to us that unless
the government slips up and hands its opponents an opportunity the
opposition would have to wait until elections. Demirchian hoped that
if the GOAM [Government of Armenia] managed to come to agreement on
proposed changes to the Constitution or electoral code, the opposition
could turn the subsequent referendum into a plebiscite on President
Kocharian's 'legitimacy"."
The US diplomat concludes with the embassy's view which is that
"despite persistent discussion of a possible 'Pomegranate Revolution'
we simply see little chance of forced regime change in Armenia."