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WHAT WILL WASHINGTON DO
by Asli Aydintasbas
Milliyet, Turkey
Sept 7 2011
The deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations into a virtual Cold
War atmosphere will be our most important agenda item in the coming
period. The shouts of "bravo" from the bleachers and attempts by
the two countries to torture each other's tourists in Tel Aviv and
Istanbul airports yesterday were reminders of just how lowthe public
psyche can sink. Even worse, this is only the beginning.
Obviously, the commentators who said that "both sides will lose" are
right. Statements with increasingly shrill tones, legal proceedings,
reciprocal tit-for-tats in international meetings - this Cold War
will give both us and Israel big headaches.
However, let us not forget that Turkey embarked on this fight knowingly
and wantonly and that it is aware of the consequences. It is not for
nothing that Foreign Minister AhmetDavutoglusaid "the time has cometo
pay the price" when he was announcing the measures being taken against
Israel. The government has been calculating the pros and cons of this
decision for some time. They tried to win an apology from Israel up to
the last moment because they knew that there were many minuses. Indeed,
at the last moment, Israel was even allowed to hide behind the phrase
"because of operational mistakes" in its apology statement.
Regardless, the "apology talks" collapsed at the last moment after
going on for nine months.
Now, let us turn to the issue of "price." Let us first look at Israel.
The price of losing Turkey is obvious for Israel. It will be deprived
of an important military and trade partner. In addition, Israeli
authorities will have to cope with multiple legal actions stemming
from the events on Mavi Marmara. Beyond all this, there is the risk
of complete isolation in the midst of the uneasiness created by the
"Arab Spring." The Arab Spring is displacing dictators like Hosni
Mubarak, with whom Israel felt comfortable. These leaders will -
in the short term - be replaced by movements that view the AKP
[Justice and Development Party] as a model and that will probably
have Islamists in their vanguard. This prospect perturbs Israel.
What about the price Turkey will pay? I do not take very serious
arguments that Israel will provide substantial assistance to the PKK.
The real problem will occur on the Washington front. The degeneration
of Turkey's relations with Israel to such an adversarial level and,
even worse, the emergence of a potential for conflict in the eastern
Mediterranean has put the Obama administration in a very difficult
position - in an election year.
The impression I got from the US officials I interviewed yesterday
can be summarized as: "Henceforth, it will be much more difficult to
work with Turkey on many issues."
This should not be misunderstood. The Obama administration urged
Israel to apologize to Turkey. Indeed, it worked hard in that
direction. Netanyahu's failure to demonstrate the required courage
at the last moment created much disappointment [in Washington] also.
However, there are also the realities of life. Israel has a very
special place in US politics. This is an alliance that enjoys strong
support in all segments of US society, from Wall Street and the media
to small Evangelical churches in the Mississippi delta. It also plays
a very decisive role in American politics.
Coming at a time when Obama needs the support of the Jewish lobby in
the United States for his re-election, Turkey's recent decision will
prompt Washington to distance itself from Ankara (even if reluctantly).
The US administration is also extremely concerned that Turkey's
package of sanctions may lead to confrontations with Israel in the
eastern Mediterranean similar to the Kardak crisis [that developed
with Greece in 1995]. It is also not hard to predict that the image
of a country that takes such an adversarial posture against Israel
will be battered in US public opinion and that this will lead to more
frequent articulations of the labels "Islamist" and "breaking away
from the West."
An even bigger prob lem is the US Congress. Congress is already
"resentful" towards the AKP government. Congress, where Israel has
very strong influence, has several trump cards to play against Turkey.
The first prospect that comes to mind is that the Armenian genocide
resolution may pass at least through the House of Representatives
this year.
This is not all. The sale of some weapon systems to Turkey will become
more difficult. For example, Turkey is unlikely to receive Congress's
approval for the Predator (Reaper) unmanned aerial vehicles it wants
to purchase for its war against the PKK. Congress may also make
more difficult - for the sake of expressing its displeasure - the
process of reappointing US Ambassador to Ankara Frank Ricciardone,
whose appointment for only a year was approved with much difficulty
last year.
Unfortunately, this is the picture before us. Strains between Tel
Aviv and Ankara at a time when Turkey and United States have a busy
agenda under headings such as missile defence systems, Syria, and the
Arab Spring will inevitably make life more unpleasant for Turkey in
Washington also.
However, this is probably not a surprise for anyone.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by Asli Aydintasbas
Milliyet, Turkey
Sept 7 2011
The deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations into a virtual Cold
War atmosphere will be our most important agenda item in the coming
period. The shouts of "bravo" from the bleachers and attempts by
the two countries to torture each other's tourists in Tel Aviv and
Istanbul airports yesterday were reminders of just how lowthe public
psyche can sink. Even worse, this is only the beginning.
Obviously, the commentators who said that "both sides will lose" are
right. Statements with increasingly shrill tones, legal proceedings,
reciprocal tit-for-tats in international meetings - this Cold War
will give both us and Israel big headaches.
However, let us not forget that Turkey embarked on this fight knowingly
and wantonly and that it is aware of the consequences. It is not for
nothing that Foreign Minister AhmetDavutoglusaid "the time has cometo
pay the price" when he was announcing the measures being taken against
Israel. The government has been calculating the pros and cons of this
decision for some time. They tried to win an apology from Israel up to
the last moment because they knew that there were many minuses. Indeed,
at the last moment, Israel was even allowed to hide behind the phrase
"because of operational mistakes" in its apology statement.
Regardless, the "apology talks" collapsed at the last moment after
going on for nine months.
Now, let us turn to the issue of "price." Let us first look at Israel.
The price of losing Turkey is obvious for Israel. It will be deprived
of an important military and trade partner. In addition, Israeli
authorities will have to cope with multiple legal actions stemming
from the events on Mavi Marmara. Beyond all this, there is the risk
of complete isolation in the midst of the uneasiness created by the
"Arab Spring." The Arab Spring is displacing dictators like Hosni
Mubarak, with whom Israel felt comfortable. These leaders will -
in the short term - be replaced by movements that view the AKP
[Justice and Development Party] as a model and that will probably
have Islamists in their vanguard. This prospect perturbs Israel.
What about the price Turkey will pay? I do not take very serious
arguments that Israel will provide substantial assistance to the PKK.
The real problem will occur on the Washington front. The degeneration
of Turkey's relations with Israel to such an adversarial level and,
even worse, the emergence of a potential for conflict in the eastern
Mediterranean has put the Obama administration in a very difficult
position - in an election year.
The impression I got from the US officials I interviewed yesterday
can be summarized as: "Henceforth, it will be much more difficult to
work with Turkey on many issues."
This should not be misunderstood. The Obama administration urged
Israel to apologize to Turkey. Indeed, it worked hard in that
direction. Netanyahu's failure to demonstrate the required courage
at the last moment created much disappointment [in Washington] also.
However, there are also the realities of life. Israel has a very
special place in US politics. This is an alliance that enjoys strong
support in all segments of US society, from Wall Street and the media
to small Evangelical churches in the Mississippi delta. It also plays
a very decisive role in American politics.
Coming at a time when Obama needs the support of the Jewish lobby in
the United States for his re-election, Turkey's recent decision will
prompt Washington to distance itself from Ankara (even if reluctantly).
The US administration is also extremely concerned that Turkey's
package of sanctions may lead to confrontations with Israel in the
eastern Mediterranean similar to the Kardak crisis [that developed
with Greece in 1995]. It is also not hard to predict that the image
of a country that takes such an adversarial posture against Israel
will be battered in US public opinion and that this will lead to more
frequent articulations of the labels "Islamist" and "breaking away
from the West."
An even bigger prob lem is the US Congress. Congress is already
"resentful" towards the AKP government. Congress, where Israel has
very strong influence, has several trump cards to play against Turkey.
The first prospect that comes to mind is that the Armenian genocide
resolution may pass at least through the House of Representatives
this year.
This is not all. The sale of some weapon systems to Turkey will become
more difficult. For example, Turkey is unlikely to receive Congress's
approval for the Predator (Reaper) unmanned aerial vehicles it wants
to purchase for its war against the PKK. Congress may also make
more difficult - for the sake of expressing its displeasure - the
process of reappointing US Ambassador to Ankara Frank Ricciardone,
whose appointment for only a year was approved with much difficulty
last year.
Unfortunately, this is the picture before us. Strains between Tel
Aviv and Ankara at a time when Turkey and United States have a busy
agenda under headings such as missile defence systems, Syria, and the
Arab Spring will inevitably make life more unpleasant for Turkey in
Washington also.
However, this is probably not a surprise for anyone.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress