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Turkish-Egyptian alliance: Israel faces regional isolation
Netanyahu can either prepare for another war or accept that Israel can
no longer impose its will on its neighbours
Editorial
guardian.co.uk,
Sunday 11 September 2011 22.47 BST
Monday's visit to Egypt by Turkey's prime minister, Reccep Tayyip
Erdogan, will be watched like no other. It comes just three days after
thousands of Egyptians stormed the Israeli embassy in Cairo.
Eighty-six Israelis inside fled, and six security guards trapped
inside a strong room had to be freed by Egyptian commandos, but only
after intervention from the White House. What those diplomats felt was
the wrath of an Egyptian people humiliated by the killing of five
soldiers at the Israeli border three weeks ago. A sixth soldier died
at the weekend. Mr Erdogan will bring with him the support of a
regional power and Nato member whose citizens were also killed by
Israeli soldiers on the Gaza flotilla last year, and who is now
threatening to send warships to protect the next one. If
post-revolutionary Egypt and an economically resurgent Turkey make
common cause against their former common ally - and there is every
indication that they will - Israel's isolation in the region will be
profound.
The pace of events has surprised everyone. The pro-Palestinian
sentiment of the thousands who thronged Tahrir Square was latent
rather than explicit. Analysts then expected that major foreign policy
changes would have to await domestic ones like elections and a new
civilian government. Israel on the other hand found itself looking the
wrong way, gearing up for protest on the West Bank and on its Syrian
and Lebanese borders after the declaration of statehood at the UN
later this month. No one expected the forces unleashed by the Arab
spring to turn this suddenly on an Israeli flagpole in Cairo.
The popular wrath is a result of two factors. First, seven and a half
months after the downfall of Hosni Mubarak's regime, the Egyptian
street is still the cutting edge of change in the country. Its ruling
military council, with elements of the former regime, are playing a
double game. Assuring continuity of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty
to some, and using the gradual breakdown of that treaty to reassert
lost Egyptian pride and sovereignty in the Sinai to others. It may not
have been accidental that during the weekend's drama in Cairo no one
in the White House could get the head of Egypt's ruling military
council, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, on the end of a
telephone in an effort to rescue the trapped security guards. Second,
Israel's old alliances were with regimes, usually despotic ones, not
their people. Now that popular opinion is once again making itself
felt in the region, Egypt will never again stand quiet - as it did
when Israel launched its military campaign against Gaza in 2008 - if
another war breaks out.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu now faces a real choice. He must
realise that humiliating Turkey by refusing to apologise for the
deaths on the Mavi Marmara was a colossal error. The strategic
consequences for Israel of a hostile Turkish-Egyptian alliance could
last years. They far outweigh the advantages of a tactical victory in
the UN Palmer report, which lasted exactly days. Israel needs to
repair relations with Turkey and do it quickly. The price of such a
rapprochement will have gone up in the last week, but it is still
worth paying. The Israeli premier's reaction on Saturday to events in
Cairo was, by his standards, measured and moderate, so maybe even he
now realises this.
The choice he faces is clear. He can either prepare for another war
(Avigdor Lieberman's response to Turkey was to suggest that Israel arm
the PKK) or he can accept that Israel can no longer impose its will on
hostile and weaker neighbours. For one thing, the neighbours are
growing stronger. The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz put it more bluntly.
In an editorial about the harassment of Israeli passengers on a
Turkish Airlines flight in retaliation for similar treatment Israeli
authorities meted out to Turkish passengers, it suggested that Israel
needs humiliation in order to respect others. No one needs further
humiliation, but respect of its neighbours is in short supply.
Netanyahu can either prepare for another war or accept that Israel can
no longer impose its will on its neighbours
Editorial
guardian.co.uk,
Sunday 11 September 2011 22.47 BST
Monday's visit to Egypt by Turkey's prime minister, Reccep Tayyip
Erdogan, will be watched like no other. It comes just three days after
thousands of Egyptians stormed the Israeli embassy in Cairo.
Eighty-six Israelis inside fled, and six security guards trapped
inside a strong room had to be freed by Egyptian commandos, but only
after intervention from the White House. What those diplomats felt was
the wrath of an Egyptian people humiliated by the killing of five
soldiers at the Israeli border three weeks ago. A sixth soldier died
at the weekend. Mr Erdogan will bring with him the support of a
regional power and Nato member whose citizens were also killed by
Israeli soldiers on the Gaza flotilla last year, and who is now
threatening to send warships to protect the next one. If
post-revolutionary Egypt and an economically resurgent Turkey make
common cause against their former common ally - and there is every
indication that they will - Israel's isolation in the region will be
profound.
The pace of events has surprised everyone. The pro-Palestinian
sentiment of the thousands who thronged Tahrir Square was latent
rather than explicit. Analysts then expected that major foreign policy
changes would have to await domestic ones like elections and a new
civilian government. Israel on the other hand found itself looking the
wrong way, gearing up for protest on the West Bank and on its Syrian
and Lebanese borders after the declaration of statehood at the UN
later this month. No one expected the forces unleashed by the Arab
spring to turn this suddenly on an Israeli flagpole in Cairo.
The popular wrath is a result of two factors. First, seven and a half
months after the downfall of Hosni Mubarak's regime, the Egyptian
street is still the cutting edge of change in the country. Its ruling
military council, with elements of the former regime, are playing a
double game. Assuring continuity of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty
to some, and using the gradual breakdown of that treaty to reassert
lost Egyptian pride and sovereignty in the Sinai to others. It may not
have been accidental that during the weekend's drama in Cairo no one
in the White House could get the head of Egypt's ruling military
council, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, on the end of a
telephone in an effort to rescue the trapped security guards. Second,
Israel's old alliances were with regimes, usually despotic ones, not
their people. Now that popular opinion is once again making itself
felt in the region, Egypt will never again stand quiet - as it did
when Israel launched its military campaign against Gaza in 2008 - if
another war breaks out.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu now faces a real choice. He must
realise that humiliating Turkey by refusing to apologise for the
deaths on the Mavi Marmara was a colossal error. The strategic
consequences for Israel of a hostile Turkish-Egyptian alliance could
last years. They far outweigh the advantages of a tactical victory in
the UN Palmer report, which lasted exactly days. Israel needs to
repair relations with Turkey and do it quickly. The price of such a
rapprochement will have gone up in the last week, but it is still
worth paying. The Israeli premier's reaction on Saturday to events in
Cairo was, by his standards, measured and moderate, so maybe even he
now realises this.
The choice he faces is clear. He can either prepare for another war
(Avigdor Lieberman's response to Turkey was to suggest that Israel arm
the PKK) or he can accept that Israel can no longer impose its will on
hostile and weaker neighbours. For one thing, the neighbours are
growing stronger. The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz put it more bluntly.
In an editorial about the harassment of Israeli passengers on a
Turkish Airlines flight in retaliation for similar treatment Israeli
authorities meted out to Turkish passengers, it suggested that Israel
needs humiliation in order to respect others. No one needs further
humiliation, but respect of its neighbours is in short supply.