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FM DAVUTOGLU RETURNS TO THE DRAWING BOARD
Hurriyet Daily News
Sept 12 2011
Turkey
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's "zero problems with neighbors"
policy was based on a well-intentioned attempt at surrounding Turkey
with an "arc of friendship" by using Ankara's "soft power," which
was considered to be increasing in line with its growing political,
strategic, and economic strength. Turkey would thus not only contribute
to overall stability in a volatile region, but also help solve disputes
between countries and/or groups as an impartial mediator.
The 2009 attempt at starting diplomatic relations with Armenia appeared
to be a highlight of this policy, and was taken as a sure sign that
Turkey was indeed determined to surround itself with "an arc of
friendship" regardless of how problematic ties with some neighbors
may be.
The attempt with Armenia went awry of course, as we know now.
In the meantime there was much cozying up to Syria and Iran, especially
since Davutoglu became foreign minister in 2009, which appeared to show
that the "zero problems" policy was providing visible results. But
as has been said in this column in the past, that policy was very
much predicated on the status quo in the Middle East continuing. The
idea was that the region would "evolve" with guidance from Turkey,
toward democratic societies based on a liberal economic outlook.
Never was it considered that revolution would break out in the Middle
East and North Africa, thus upsetting plans that looked great on
paper. Meanwhile ties with Israel hit a hard rock, upsetting what
appeared, for all the difficulties in the past, to be a relationship
based on a cold-blooded pragmatism that served mutual interests.
Ties with Syria and Iran, on the other hand, did not developed the way
the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, wanted, while the unsolved
Cyprus problem has once again raised the specter of a new confrontation
in the eastern Mediterranean Sea due to Greek Cypriot plans to search
for offshore gas by overlooking the rights of Turkish Cypriots.
The bottom line is that from aspiring to having zero problems with
neighbors, Turkey has today surrounded itself with problems with all
of its key neighbors, and other countries in the region. Ties with
Israel are all but broken, dialogue with Syria is all but non-existent,
and the extremely warm atmosphere between Tehran and Ankara of only
a year ago has all but dissipated due to serious differences over
Syria, as well as Turkey's decision to participate in NATO's missile
defense shield.
In addition to this, ties between Ankara and Baghdad, as well as
Ankara and Arbil, are again being overshadowed by Turkish military
incursions into northern Iraq in pursuit of PKK terrorists, which
appears set to continue for the foreseeable future. As for ties with
Armenia, they are not going anywhere.
Turkey's angry - some may say bellicose - tone today, especially in
its warnings to Israel and Greek Cypriots, also indicates a shift
from "soft power" to a traditional flexing of military muscles to
protect the national interests. Turkey cannot be faulted, of course,
for the unexpected developments in the region. No one, after all,
foresaw the advent of the Arab Spring.
The problem however is that Ankara was so set on pursuing its one
track line that it did not factor in the "unexpected," which should
be part and parcel of foreign policy administration, especially in
terms of anything to do with the Middle East where the ground is
always slippery. Put another way, the AKP was not fully in touch with
regional realities, instead captivated by its own image.
Today Mr. Davutoglu will have to develop a new approach to foreign
policy given the set of new problems Turkey faces with its neighbors.
Turkey may also need mediation in some of the disputes it has, which
is a far cry from the heady days when Ankara was ready to mediate in
every regional dispute.
One thing in all this is becoming increasingly clear. It is back to
the drawing board for Foreign Minister Davutoglu.
Hurriyet Daily News
Sept 12 2011
Turkey
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's "zero problems with neighbors"
policy was based on a well-intentioned attempt at surrounding Turkey
with an "arc of friendship" by using Ankara's "soft power," which
was considered to be increasing in line with its growing political,
strategic, and economic strength. Turkey would thus not only contribute
to overall stability in a volatile region, but also help solve disputes
between countries and/or groups as an impartial mediator.
The 2009 attempt at starting diplomatic relations with Armenia appeared
to be a highlight of this policy, and was taken as a sure sign that
Turkey was indeed determined to surround itself with "an arc of
friendship" regardless of how problematic ties with some neighbors
may be.
The attempt with Armenia went awry of course, as we know now.
In the meantime there was much cozying up to Syria and Iran, especially
since Davutoglu became foreign minister in 2009, which appeared to show
that the "zero problems" policy was providing visible results. But
as has been said in this column in the past, that policy was very
much predicated on the status quo in the Middle East continuing. The
idea was that the region would "evolve" with guidance from Turkey,
toward democratic societies based on a liberal economic outlook.
Never was it considered that revolution would break out in the Middle
East and North Africa, thus upsetting plans that looked great on
paper. Meanwhile ties with Israel hit a hard rock, upsetting what
appeared, for all the difficulties in the past, to be a relationship
based on a cold-blooded pragmatism that served mutual interests.
Ties with Syria and Iran, on the other hand, did not developed the way
the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, wanted, while the unsolved
Cyprus problem has once again raised the specter of a new confrontation
in the eastern Mediterranean Sea due to Greek Cypriot plans to search
for offshore gas by overlooking the rights of Turkish Cypriots.
The bottom line is that from aspiring to having zero problems with
neighbors, Turkey has today surrounded itself with problems with all
of its key neighbors, and other countries in the region. Ties with
Israel are all but broken, dialogue with Syria is all but non-existent,
and the extremely warm atmosphere between Tehran and Ankara of only
a year ago has all but dissipated due to serious differences over
Syria, as well as Turkey's decision to participate in NATO's missile
defense shield.
In addition to this, ties between Ankara and Baghdad, as well as
Ankara and Arbil, are again being overshadowed by Turkish military
incursions into northern Iraq in pursuit of PKK terrorists, which
appears set to continue for the foreseeable future. As for ties with
Armenia, they are not going anywhere.
Turkey's angry - some may say bellicose - tone today, especially in
its warnings to Israel and Greek Cypriots, also indicates a shift
from "soft power" to a traditional flexing of military muscles to
protect the national interests. Turkey cannot be faulted, of course,
for the unexpected developments in the region. No one, after all,
foresaw the advent of the Arab Spring.
The problem however is that Ankara was so set on pursuing its one
track line that it did not factor in the "unexpected," which should
be part and parcel of foreign policy administration, especially in
terms of anything to do with the Middle East where the ground is
always slippery. Put another way, the AKP was not fully in touch with
regional realities, instead captivated by its own image.
Today Mr. Davutoglu will have to develop a new approach to foreign
policy given the set of new problems Turkey faces with its neighbors.
Turkey may also need mediation in some of the disputes it has, which
is a far cry from the heady days when Ankara was ready to mediate in
every regional dispute.
One thing in all this is becoming increasingly clear. It is back to
the drawing board for Foreign Minister Davutoglu.