Tweet
TURKEY-ISRAEL TENSION: HIGH STAKES FOR US
by ALİ H. ASLAN
Today's Zaman
Sept 15 2011
Turkey
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently said Israel is acting
like a "spoiled child." From the US government's perspective, however,
Turkey and Israel are both looking like spoiled children lately.
Israel has refused to apologize for the terrible actions of its
military when they killed nine Turkish civilians during the Mavi
Marmara raid. And Turkey seems to be more than ready for a fight.
Seriously? Is this high school or something?
Being Turkey and Israel's big brother in the region, the US is likely
to suffer from a further escalation of this conflict, perhaps even
more than the actual disputing parties. The Americans are working hard
to ease the tension but neither party is showing signs of backing off.
The world has turned upside down for the US in the Middle East due
to the Iraq war and the Arab Spring. This Turkey-Israel conflict is
just the latest glitch.
For decades, the US has relied on its allies to continue its
dominance in the region, with little or no interest in whether
they are democratic or autocratic. Not only Israel's controversial
military actions but the democratic shortcomings of Saudi Arabia,
Egypt and pre-revolution Iran were also often overlooked. However,
Americans dealt with conflicts between its allies more thoroughly. The
Egypt-Israel peace treaty of 1979 was so valuable for the US that
billions of US tax dollars were allocated with ease. Had Turkey not
been more economically and democratically sound as it is now -- and the
US not as broke -- Washington might have offered similar incentives.
Followed by a series of disappointments, reactions and denials since
the early 2000s, the US has finally come to realize that a relatively
independent Turkey could actually be useful. When Turkey does not look
like a total US satellite, the region, especially its people, trusts
Ankara better. A popular Turkey that keeps its communication channels
open with Washington is expected to smooth things out. Engagement with
Ankara helps the Obama administration "lead" regional developments
"from behind" -- as well as keep an eye on Turkey. Given its
geostrategic, military, economic and democratic assets, Turkey is
a shining star that is very valuable to US interests. Hence, there
is a lot of concern in Washington when Ankara tries to test its US
friendship with a conflict with Israel, another indispensable friend.
At the end of the day, I don't expect the Obama administration to pick
clear sides between Turkey and Israel. America, along with Israel,
will certainly be lobbying against the Palestinian bid for statehood
at the upcoming UN General Assembly, which Turkey vigorously supports.
Despite upcoming presidential elections, where Jewish Americans are
an important factor, the White House is not likely to go too hard on
Turkey. The clear choice of the US Congress, however, is Israel, thanks
to some very powerful lobbying mechanisms there. Lifting the blockade
on Gaza, a newly adopted Turkish precondition for normalization with
Tel Aviv, is a non-starter in Congress.
Turkey-hating Armenian and Greek groups can now make life even more
difficult for the US and Turkish administrations. The Turkey-Israel
conflict is likely to give an already unfriendly House Republican
majority another reason to slam the White House.
Although most higher level US officials, first and foremost President
Barack Obama himself, care about Turkey, some of Ankara's policies on
the 2003 Iraq war, Armenia and the Iran nuclear program have left scars
among many in mid and lower levels of bureaucracy. For them, Turkey
may seem a major troublemaker and this recent conflict with Israel
is just another example. Some Washingtonians yearn for the days when
they mainly worked with the old secularist Kemalist elite who generally
conformed to the US in exchange for international legitimacy for their
corrupt and antidemocratic ways. So they might be less sympathetic
to the Turkish position on Israel. On the other hand, when you talk
to Turkish diplomatic sources they say administration officials
who are familiar with negotiations on apologies and reparations are
disappointed by the non-compromising Israeli attitude.
Rubbing salt into the wound for the US are the seriously deteriorating
relations between Tel Aviv and Cairo, further isolating Israel in the
region. An isolated Israel is likely to get more hawkish and defensive
rather than self-corrective. That might create a vicious circle calling
for more reaction from Turkey and others in the region. Ankara has
clearly concluded that the Israelis have more to lose from this
confrontation. They think a tough stance against Israel opens up
strategic space for Turkey in the region. Certainly, it doesn't
hurt the Erdogan government in domestic politics, either. But the
US is concerned the situation might get out of control. Ankara's
declaration that it will not let the eastern Mediterranean be
dominated by Israel and that it will dispatch more Turkish navy
vessels there is especially worrisome. The situation is reminiscent
of risky Turkish-Greek encounters in the Aegean. Who needs another
hard player in the eastern Mediterranean, especially if the player
is a NATO member?
Israel-Turkey relations have historically been marked with ups and
downs. So, this is not the first time they went bad. For example,
in 1980, Turkey downgraded its diplomatic presence in Israel to
junior chargé d'affaires level in reaction to a controversial Jewish
decision vis-a-vis East Jerusalem. Perhaps what makes the latest
tensions more serious is that we are dealing with a more powerful
new Turkey and a dramatically transforming region. Especially since
we are in unchartered territories, extreme attention and caution is
essential for all parties involved, including the US.
by ALİ H. ASLAN
Today's Zaman
Sept 15 2011
Turkey
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently said Israel is acting
like a "spoiled child." From the US government's perspective, however,
Turkey and Israel are both looking like spoiled children lately.
Israel has refused to apologize for the terrible actions of its
military when they killed nine Turkish civilians during the Mavi
Marmara raid. And Turkey seems to be more than ready for a fight.
Seriously? Is this high school or something?
Being Turkey and Israel's big brother in the region, the US is likely
to suffer from a further escalation of this conflict, perhaps even
more than the actual disputing parties. The Americans are working hard
to ease the tension but neither party is showing signs of backing off.
The world has turned upside down for the US in the Middle East due
to the Iraq war and the Arab Spring. This Turkey-Israel conflict is
just the latest glitch.
For decades, the US has relied on its allies to continue its
dominance in the region, with little or no interest in whether
they are democratic or autocratic. Not only Israel's controversial
military actions but the democratic shortcomings of Saudi Arabia,
Egypt and pre-revolution Iran were also often overlooked. However,
Americans dealt with conflicts between its allies more thoroughly. The
Egypt-Israel peace treaty of 1979 was so valuable for the US that
billions of US tax dollars were allocated with ease. Had Turkey not
been more economically and democratically sound as it is now -- and the
US not as broke -- Washington might have offered similar incentives.
Followed by a series of disappointments, reactions and denials since
the early 2000s, the US has finally come to realize that a relatively
independent Turkey could actually be useful. When Turkey does not look
like a total US satellite, the region, especially its people, trusts
Ankara better. A popular Turkey that keeps its communication channels
open with Washington is expected to smooth things out. Engagement with
Ankara helps the Obama administration "lead" regional developments
"from behind" -- as well as keep an eye on Turkey. Given its
geostrategic, military, economic and democratic assets, Turkey is
a shining star that is very valuable to US interests. Hence, there
is a lot of concern in Washington when Ankara tries to test its US
friendship with a conflict with Israel, another indispensable friend.
At the end of the day, I don't expect the Obama administration to pick
clear sides between Turkey and Israel. America, along with Israel,
will certainly be lobbying against the Palestinian bid for statehood
at the upcoming UN General Assembly, which Turkey vigorously supports.
Despite upcoming presidential elections, where Jewish Americans are
an important factor, the White House is not likely to go too hard on
Turkey. The clear choice of the US Congress, however, is Israel, thanks
to some very powerful lobbying mechanisms there. Lifting the blockade
on Gaza, a newly adopted Turkish precondition for normalization with
Tel Aviv, is a non-starter in Congress.
Turkey-hating Armenian and Greek groups can now make life even more
difficult for the US and Turkish administrations. The Turkey-Israel
conflict is likely to give an already unfriendly House Republican
majority another reason to slam the White House.
Although most higher level US officials, first and foremost President
Barack Obama himself, care about Turkey, some of Ankara's policies on
the 2003 Iraq war, Armenia and the Iran nuclear program have left scars
among many in mid and lower levels of bureaucracy. For them, Turkey
may seem a major troublemaker and this recent conflict with Israel
is just another example. Some Washingtonians yearn for the days when
they mainly worked with the old secularist Kemalist elite who generally
conformed to the US in exchange for international legitimacy for their
corrupt and antidemocratic ways. So they might be less sympathetic
to the Turkish position on Israel. On the other hand, when you talk
to Turkish diplomatic sources they say administration officials
who are familiar with negotiations on apologies and reparations are
disappointed by the non-compromising Israeli attitude.
Rubbing salt into the wound for the US are the seriously deteriorating
relations between Tel Aviv and Cairo, further isolating Israel in the
region. An isolated Israel is likely to get more hawkish and defensive
rather than self-corrective. That might create a vicious circle calling
for more reaction from Turkey and others in the region. Ankara has
clearly concluded that the Israelis have more to lose from this
confrontation. They think a tough stance against Israel opens up
strategic space for Turkey in the region. Certainly, it doesn't
hurt the Erdogan government in domestic politics, either. But the
US is concerned the situation might get out of control. Ankara's
declaration that it will not let the eastern Mediterranean be
dominated by Israel and that it will dispatch more Turkish navy
vessels there is especially worrisome. The situation is reminiscent
of risky Turkish-Greek encounters in the Aegean. Who needs another
hard player in the eastern Mediterranean, especially if the player
is a NATO member?
Israel-Turkey relations have historically been marked with ups and
downs. So, this is not the first time they went bad. For example,
in 1980, Turkey downgraded its diplomatic presence in Israel to
junior chargé d'affaires level in reaction to a controversial Jewish
decision vis-a-vis East Jerusalem. Perhaps what makes the latest
tensions more serious is that we are dealing with a more powerful
new Turkey and a dramatically transforming region. Especially since
we are in unchartered territories, extreme attention and caution is
essential for all parties involved, including the US.