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AZERBAIJAN, ARMENIA: NEW FRONT IN KARABAKH CONFLICT OPENS IN LATIN AMERICA
by Marianna Grigoryan and Shahin Abbasov
EurasiaNet.org
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64182
Sept 16 2011
NY
There is a Spanish proverb that goes: Del dicho al hecho, hay mucho
trecho, or, roughly translated, it's easier said than done. This
saying seems to apply to Uruguay's reported readiness to recognize
the independence of the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh territory.
The controversy began September 9, when Armenian media outlets
publicized comments attributed to Uruguayan Foreign Minister Luis
Almagro, who supposedly offered up an enthusiastic endorsement of
Karabakh's independence, along with his backing for the territory's
eventual union with Armenia.
Azerbaijani news outlets quickly disputed that Almagro had actually
expressed support for Karabakh independence. Instead, citing a
transcript of the speech posted by an Armenian Diaspora organization in
Latin America, Azerbaijani media reports contended that Almagro merely
acknowledged that Armenians themselves believe that independence for
Karabakh, along with strong ties with Armenia, are "the best way."
Uruguay's Foreign Ministry has not commented on the various
interpretations of Almagro's remarks, nor has it posted its own
transcript of his speech. Some 20,000 Armenian Diaspora members
are estimated to live in Uruguay. In 1965, the Latin American state
became the first country in the world to recognize Ottoman Turkey's
1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide. A memorial to the
slaughter stands in Montevideo.
Despite Uruguay's continuing silence, the story has legs in the
Caucasus. In Karabakh itself, Almagro's supposed support for Karabakhi
independence was greeted with surprise and gratitude, according
to David Babayan, spokesperson for Karabakh's de facto president,
Bako Sahakyan. Karabakh has not been in previous contact with the
Uruguayan government, he said.
"We understand that this does not mean our independence will be
recognized right away. ... But the closed door has been opened,"
Babayan continued. "Even if this process takes several years, we will
be grateful to Uruguay all the same."
Azerbaijani analysts assert that Karabakh's leaders should not get
their hopes up. "It is not a situation for Uruguay to be a pioneer on
such a delicate and complicated issue," commented political analyst
Zardusht Alizade. "The situation over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
is now unpredictable, and all countries, on the contrary, are trying
to stay far away from it."
Alizade questioned what Uruguay has to gain from recognizing Karabakh
as a country. The initiative "could seriously harm the efforts of large
countries and international organizations to resolve the conflict,"
he said. Some in Baku want the United States to get involved, but the
US Embassy in Baku has already made it clear that Washington has no
intention of touching the issue.
Vafa Guluzade, a former senior foreign policy aide to the late
Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev doubts that Uruguay will go so
far as to recognize Karabakh's independence from Azerbaijan, given
that even Armenia itself has not done so yet.
Independent Armenian political analyst Yervand Bozoyan agreed, saying
that heightened tensions over Karabakh with Azerbaijan would preclude
such a decision by Armenia. Calling it "the minister's personal point
of view," he voiced doubts that Almagro's statement "will bring any
substantial changes for Armenia and Karabakh."
The Azerbaijani government, which maintains that Armenia is
misrepresenting Almagro's remarks, has reported that Montevideo has
assured Baku that Uruguay respects Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.
In Armenia, leaders of the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutiun movement claimed credit for engineering
Almagro's statement. "We have done serious work in Uruguay in this
direction," said Kiro Manoyan, head of the party's Hay Dat (Armenian
Cause) and Political Affairs Office. "This is just the beginning."
The ARF is not the only political party in Yerevan that sees Uruguay as
a starting point. The opposition Heritage Party, which wants Yerevan
to recognize Karabakh's sovereignty, asserts that Armenian officials
should lobby Uruguay's Latin American neighbors. "The countries of
Latin America can recognize Artsakh's [Karabakh's] independence,
and Armenian diplomacy must work in this direction," said Heritage
Party parliamentary faction leader Stepan Safarian.
"These countries may go for such a move because they have no serious
geopolitical interests in this region that could hold them back from
doing so," Safarian added.
That is exactly what Baku fears, said Elhan Shahinoglu, director of
Baku's Atlas Research Center. Azerbaijan has no embassy in Uruguay,
and the two governments are not known to have active ties. Uruguay
is not even on the list of 160 countries with which Azerbaijan has
a trade turnover.
Without strong diplomatic ties or trade, Baku lacks levers with
which to influence Uruguay. In addition, Montevideo does not need
Azerbaijan's support in international organizations, Shahinoglu noted.
He worries that the ongoing silence from Uruguay on the controversy
"could mean that Montevideo really is considering some anti-Azerbaijan
steps."
Any Uruguayan recognition of Karabakhi independence "could pave the
way for some other small countries, which do not have any relations
with Baku, to do the same," Shahinoglu said. "Of course, the number
of such countries will not be large, but even if three-four countries
do it, it is a very negative development for Azerbaijan."
Editor's note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance journalist based
in Baku and a board member of the Open Society Assistance
Foundation-Azerbaijan. Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance journalist
based in Yerevan and editor of MediaLab.am.
by Marianna Grigoryan and Shahin Abbasov
EurasiaNet.org
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64182
Sept 16 2011
NY
There is a Spanish proverb that goes: Del dicho al hecho, hay mucho
trecho, or, roughly translated, it's easier said than done. This
saying seems to apply to Uruguay's reported readiness to recognize
the independence of the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh territory.
The controversy began September 9, when Armenian media outlets
publicized comments attributed to Uruguayan Foreign Minister Luis
Almagro, who supposedly offered up an enthusiastic endorsement of
Karabakh's independence, along with his backing for the territory's
eventual union with Armenia.
Azerbaijani news outlets quickly disputed that Almagro had actually
expressed support for Karabakh independence. Instead, citing a
transcript of the speech posted by an Armenian Diaspora organization in
Latin America, Azerbaijani media reports contended that Almagro merely
acknowledged that Armenians themselves believe that independence for
Karabakh, along with strong ties with Armenia, are "the best way."
Uruguay's Foreign Ministry has not commented on the various
interpretations of Almagro's remarks, nor has it posted its own
transcript of his speech. Some 20,000 Armenian Diaspora members
are estimated to live in Uruguay. In 1965, the Latin American state
became the first country in the world to recognize Ottoman Turkey's
1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide. A memorial to the
slaughter stands in Montevideo.
Despite Uruguay's continuing silence, the story has legs in the
Caucasus. In Karabakh itself, Almagro's supposed support for Karabakhi
independence was greeted with surprise and gratitude, according
to David Babayan, spokesperson for Karabakh's de facto president,
Bako Sahakyan. Karabakh has not been in previous contact with the
Uruguayan government, he said.
"We understand that this does not mean our independence will be
recognized right away. ... But the closed door has been opened,"
Babayan continued. "Even if this process takes several years, we will
be grateful to Uruguay all the same."
Azerbaijani analysts assert that Karabakh's leaders should not get
their hopes up. "It is not a situation for Uruguay to be a pioneer on
such a delicate and complicated issue," commented political analyst
Zardusht Alizade. "The situation over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
is now unpredictable, and all countries, on the contrary, are trying
to stay far away from it."
Alizade questioned what Uruguay has to gain from recognizing Karabakh
as a country. The initiative "could seriously harm the efforts of large
countries and international organizations to resolve the conflict,"
he said. Some in Baku want the United States to get involved, but the
US Embassy in Baku has already made it clear that Washington has no
intention of touching the issue.
Vafa Guluzade, a former senior foreign policy aide to the late
Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev doubts that Uruguay will go so
far as to recognize Karabakh's independence from Azerbaijan, given
that even Armenia itself has not done so yet.
Independent Armenian political analyst Yervand Bozoyan agreed, saying
that heightened tensions over Karabakh with Azerbaijan would preclude
such a decision by Armenia. Calling it "the minister's personal point
of view," he voiced doubts that Almagro's statement "will bring any
substantial changes for Armenia and Karabakh."
The Azerbaijani government, which maintains that Armenia is
misrepresenting Almagro's remarks, has reported that Montevideo has
assured Baku that Uruguay respects Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.
In Armenia, leaders of the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutiun movement claimed credit for engineering
Almagro's statement. "We have done serious work in Uruguay in this
direction," said Kiro Manoyan, head of the party's Hay Dat (Armenian
Cause) and Political Affairs Office. "This is just the beginning."
The ARF is not the only political party in Yerevan that sees Uruguay as
a starting point. The opposition Heritage Party, which wants Yerevan
to recognize Karabakh's sovereignty, asserts that Armenian officials
should lobby Uruguay's Latin American neighbors. "The countries of
Latin America can recognize Artsakh's [Karabakh's] independence,
and Armenian diplomacy must work in this direction," said Heritage
Party parliamentary faction leader Stepan Safarian.
"These countries may go for such a move because they have no serious
geopolitical interests in this region that could hold them back from
doing so," Safarian added.
That is exactly what Baku fears, said Elhan Shahinoglu, director of
Baku's Atlas Research Center. Azerbaijan has no embassy in Uruguay,
and the two governments are not known to have active ties. Uruguay
is not even on the list of 160 countries with which Azerbaijan has
a trade turnover.
Without strong diplomatic ties or trade, Baku lacks levers with
which to influence Uruguay. In addition, Montevideo does not need
Azerbaijan's support in international organizations, Shahinoglu noted.
He worries that the ongoing silence from Uruguay on the controversy
"could mean that Montevideo really is considering some anti-Azerbaijan
steps."
Any Uruguayan recognition of Karabakhi independence "could pave the
way for some other small countries, which do not have any relations
with Baku, to do the same," Shahinoglu said. "Of course, the number
of such countries will not be large, but even if three-four countries
do it, it is a very negative development for Azerbaijan."
Editor's note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance journalist based
in Baku and a board member of the Open Society Assistance
Foundation-Azerbaijan. Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance journalist
based in Yerevan and editor of MediaLab.am.